Like you I would consider a 15 - 20% discount appropriate for a previous model year after a refresh. That's how much the newer ones are going to depreciate in the used market. In the long term like 6 years out the difference might be minimal
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whitex
Well-Known Member
One more thing, have you compared leases between the new and the inventory? That should give you an idea about resale value (residual value) in 3 years, and if you only plan to keep the car 3 years a lease may be a good idea, whether you go new or inventory - if the car is worth more you can always buy it out at the end of the lease and sell it yourself. On the other hand, if you plan to keep it for a long time, who cares about the resale value. Invest the $5K now and add it to what you get for the car in 10 years. If you invest it in Tesla stock, in 10 years you should get at least $10K back. If not, if Tesla tanks, there new and inventory resale difference will be not much at all - they will both be very low.
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whitex
Well-Known Member
I'm a little confused by that comment. Just because you are buying a big ticket item, why would $5,000 become less valuable than if you're buying $3 coffee? If you just bought a car to $50K, then go to get a coffee, would you not care about an extra $100 they charged your credit card and justify it by saying "I just spent $50K, $100 is nothing to me"?
I've known people worth millions, and they all look money as their hard earned money. $5K is something they can easily afford but would not just throw it away, even after spending millions earlier that same day. That is how they became rich in the first place - looking at every dollar they spend and determining if it's worth it. I've heard the argument you are making but they usually come from people such as:
1. Sales people who want to tack on extra charges when you buy big ticket items (cars, homes, boats). That extends to service sometimes, for example when I drove a Lexus, they wanted $450 for oil changes, while I did the very same service at a Toyota dealership for $39.99. Yes, Lexus service came with a latte and a scone, but to me a coffee and a treat is not worth $400. Their argument was similar to yours, if you paid $60,000 for your car, why is $450 a problem every 6-12 months.
2. People who don't have a lot of money cannot conceptualize above certain threshold. To them $100,000 feels the same as $1,000,000 or $100,000,000 - just a very big number they cannot even count. Those people reason that if you have the kind of money, you basically have unlimited amount of money in their mind.
3. People who grew up with very rich parents, therefore have money without every having to make it. They have no concept of money value, they just know if they want something they get it.
Given you have a CPO Model S I imagine you don't fall into #2 or #3 categories. But then again, you're not selling anything to the OP, so #1 doesn't quite fit either. That is what's confusing me about your comment.
The only way you could make this argument logically is if the OP had to forego more than $5K in earnings in order to make this decision. So, if the person who posted this could have gone to work and made more than $5K in the time it took to write this post, read responses, and make a decision, then your argument would be solid. It doesn't sound like this is the case here though.
Dr. Pete
Member
I would worry that repeated "pedal to the metal" demos during test drives in an inventory car could decrease drive train longevity. I don't have any data on that possibility, but after a couple of "insane" runs in my P85D, I decided not to do any more pending more information of effect on drive traffic on longevity.
AMPd
Well-Known Member
I was told by my local SC that constant pedal to the medal had no negative effect on the drivetrain
whitex
Well-Known Member
Why spend $20K+ more on a P if you're not going to use the insane or ludicrous mode?
The parts potentially affected would be the battery+drivetrain, and those have an 8-year, unlimited mileage warranty so I would not be worried about it.The only "insane" effects that may be worth checking for on an inventory car would be the consumables - so ire wear and brake wear.
Camera-Cruiser
Fully Charged
Wow. Where to start. I had hoped that it is obvious. This had nothing to do with discounting the real world value of $5,000, but had everything to do with individuals that have the wherewithal to purchase in this automotive segment, their mindset, and the value of $5,000 to them in particular.
First and foremost to me is the idea of value. If a new old S is 100k, and a new facelifted S identically specced is $105k, the the question becomes is the new S worth $5k more than the old for the decision maker, and if the decision maker is of the type purchasing in this segment the answer is yes. They are exchanging $5,000 for the value they perceive as receiving.
The flip side is looking at it the other way. You can get an old S for a $5,000 discount, and you are still purchasing in the same automotive price segment, but now your value is cash. The question becomes, is the value of that $5,000 in the decision makers pocket or portfolio worth more to me than getting the new S. Or, probably more accurately does the old S, at $100k deliver $100k of value. I'd suggest that the smart money crowd says, no.
To your other points, the multiples of difference on a $100 up charge on $3 coffee is absurd to anyone rich, smart, or both. Same on the oil service, but the coffee and scones are pretty good! On the other hand people with high net worth can choose to tip $100 on a $3.00 cup,of coffee, or spend $450 on an oil change because they want the Lexus experience. Both are at their discretion, and they both offer value. In terms of the coffee, they may feel special by being able to change someone's day with $100 tip. The $450 oil change may simply allow them to wait at a Toyota service center. Value is all about perception.
Oh, your right, I do not fit in any of your catagories
, but I wouldn't mind rich parents!
whitex
Well-Known Member
Wow. Where to start. I had hoped that it is obvious. This had nothing to do with discounting the real world value of $5,000, but had everything to do with individuals that have the wherewithal to purchase in this automotive segment, their mindset, and the value of $5,000 to them in particular.
First and foremost to me is the idea of value. If a new old S is 100k, and a new facelifted S identically specced is $105k, the the question becomes is the new S worth $5k more than the old for the decision maker, and if the decision maker is of the type purchasing in this segment the answer is yes. They are exchanging $5,000 for the value they perceive as receiving.
The flip side is looking at it the other way. You can get an old S for a $5,000 discount, and you are still purchasing in the same automotive price segment, but now your value is cash. The question becomes, is the value of that $5,000 in the decision makers pocket or portfolio worth more to me than getting the new S. Or, probably more accurately does the old S, at $100k deliver $100k of value. I'd suggest that the smart money crowd says, no.
To your other points, the multiples of difference on a $100 up charge on $3 coffee is absurd to anyone rich, smart, or both. Same on the oil service, but the coffee and scones are pretty good! On the other hand people with high net worth can choose to tip $100 on a $3.00 cup,of coffee, or spend $450 on an oil change because they want the Lexus experience. Both are at their discretion, and they both offer value. In terms of the coffee, they may feel special by being able to change someone's day with $100 tip. The $450 oil change may simply allow them to wait at a Toyota service center. Value is all about perception.
Oh, your right, I do not fit in any of your categories
It think you may be making some big assumptions as to what "people who buy in this segment" see as value. Value is always relative to the person perceiving it. This wasn't my 1st 100K+ car, and I have to tell you I find plenty of value in $5K. I paid $5K for Ludicrous, $500 for LTE, but wouldn't pay anywhere near $5K to retrofit the new nose and HEPA filter - I might pay $500, maybe $1000 max for HEPA if it came with bio-defense mode, but wouldn't pay any money at all for the new nose. I also wouldn't pay for the slower charger (72A max vs. 80A max in the old S).
Maybe think of it another way, people buying 90D are obviously choosing their options based on value since they don't see the "P" value, so now the question is: if the old style $100K car had a $5K option of new nose and HEPA filter - do you think everyone would choose to pay for it? It seems you are certain they would. Why? You could apply the same logic to any option under $5K, which is every single option as they are priced between $1000-$3000. This would mean nobody orders a 90D with anything less than all the options, each option being "just" an small, "not a big deal to anyone in this sector" increment. If someone who is buying a 90D does not see $2,500 value in air-suspension, or $1000 in sub-zero package, why do you assume they would see $5K value in new nose and air filter?
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Interesting how the refresh is seen by some as just a new nose, filter and led lights. Likely more behind the scenes and that is where the $5k is an issue.
Another issue is aerodynamics and range. Unclear what you are getting but it might be 10 miles at speed. Something valued around $2k by Tesla. The rims might be another 5. So just in those 2 might be $3k in "value". Certainly not zero. And aerodynamics help most at high speed which is the real range issue - 80 mph.
I would not buy a Tesla today without knowing the autopilot issues. Does the new one have a better upgrade path? That is the $5k question.
Personally, I've considered upwards of $1k to paint the side skirts so that would be worth something to me. It isn't just a new nose.
Another issue is aerodynamics and range. Unclear what you are getting but it might be 10 miles at speed. Something valued around $2k by Tesla. The rims might be another 5. So just in those 2 might be $3k in "value". Certainly not zero. And aerodynamics help most at high speed which is the real range issue - 80 mph.
I would not buy a Tesla today without knowing the autopilot issues. Does the new one have a better upgrade path? That is the $5k question.
Personally, I've considered upwards of $1k to paint the side skirts so that would be worth something to me. It isn't just a new nose.
Camera-Cruiser
Fully Charged
I hate not being able to edit posts.
Paying $450 for an oil change (and I don't know if it is true) allows someone the opportunity to not wait at the Toyota service center, but instead relish in all that is Lexus.
Camera-Cruiser
Fully Charged
Uh, but it's not an option, and that is the point. Tesla drew a line in the sand and said this is the new face of Tesla Motors (until they change it again). I can hope for my greedy resale purposes that "classic" is actually perceived as having higher value and that people will beat each other to a bloody pulp trying to buy my white 2013 S85 over a face-lifted model S. I can also wake up.
To your other point, I agree, value is all about perception, just look at Tesla stock. And yes, I am making assumptions about people who buy $100,000 automobiles, but it is not that they don't know the value of their money, quite the contrary, they may know it precisely, it's just at the end of the day they don't consciously think about a $5K price difference- if they do, then they probably shouldn't be buying $100K cars. They also aren't going to start writing $5,000 checks to strangers, or even first cousins, or me, or you.
Again, it is all perception.
My perception is that we have beat this to death, and that the new face-lifted S (and all the unseen changes) is worth more than the old S.
and Ooooooo, Tesla is up 1.93%. Time to order a new S (I kid)
.I too would take the discount in this instance and get the classic nosecone.
I nearly did the same thing when I ordered a Model S nearly a year ago.
We ended up falling apart on the inventory car b/c Tesla would not swap out the 19 inch wheels (the inventory car had 21s that I don't need in pothole ridden NYC streets, and they absolutely refused to swap out the tires.. even from another loaner/inventory car.
that said, if resale value is important to you. i would get a new refreshed car.
I nearly did the same thing when I ordered a Model S nearly a year ago.
We ended up falling apart on the inventory car b/c Tesla would not swap out the 19 inch wheels (the inventory car had 21s that I don't need in pothole ridden NYC streets, and they absolutely refused to swap out the tires.. even from another loaner/inventory car.
that said, if resale value is important to you. i would get a new refreshed car.
Daniel 74
Active Member
I just traded in my new P90DL at Tesla Amsterdam. The car was delivered in february 2016 and had 8000 km on the odometer. I didn't want to drive around in a brand new car with the old front. As you may imagine, this was a costly decision (€ 157,5 k vs € 131,4 k ), which I was nontheless willing to take
So, to answer your question, I would go for the new one, given that rather small rebate you get.
Now I'm waiting for the X that will replace the P90DL
), which I was nontheless willing to takeSo, to answer your question, I would go for the new one, given that rather small rebate you get.
Now I'm waiting for the X that will replace the P90DL
