Also, DaveT, have u had a chance to glance over the Appl options pdf I sent you, and if so, what do u think?
Hi Ongba, actually I did read over the APPL investor pdf you sent. It was a pretty fascinating read. The most striking part of it was in 2008, nobody in the thread had a clue the Great Recession was lurking. It was like lambs to the slaughter... AAPL would go from $200 to the 80s... but just several months earlier they were talking about AAPL headed to the 300s. It was a good reminder for me. I'm actually very aware and conscious of the effects of a recession on stock prices, especially high-growth stock. So, I've always had that in mind when approaching my TSLA investments. But nevertheless a good reminder.
I think Snipus' greatest moves were simply two. One, he got in early (ie., 2004+) and leverage options to increase his gains tremendously early on so he had a large amount of cash/holdings. By 2006/2007 the pace of his gains probably dropped dramatically. Second, in October 2008 though he was probably hit with massive losses, he made the bold me to not only spot that AAPL had likely bottomed but to go "all in" (or relatively) with LEAPs at that point. That resurrected his holdings and allowed him to recoup his losses and more until he exited when AAPL was $300.
It seemed like more users were getting into bull call spread when the options premiums were getting high because of AAPL's high exposure, but this seemed like it was after the early years. Meaning, lots of the posts on bull call spreads seemed to be later on (ie., stock over $150, $200 or at $300). This makes sense as the days of cheap option premiums were over and people needed ways to leverage their money for faster gains than stock, and the bull call spreads removed some of the inherent risks in option calls with high premiums.
Applying all of this to Tesla, probably the greatest risk to investors (especially in options) is a severe recession that keeps TSLA low. That would be pretty harsh for those who have a significant holding in option calls.
Also, I got the feeling that after $300 or so, a lot of the fun (ie., quick gains) had been taken out of AAPL investing. I wonder if that's how it will be after a certain point (not sure when) with TSLA. At that point, I might be heavily engaged in actively searching/investing in the next breakout company (10x+ returns). Actually, I've already started my search for that next breakout company, acknowledging that it can take a lot of time/effort/research.
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The only times that my stock-picking has done noticeably than the general market rise has been when I knew something that the pro's did not (or at least were not comfortable with yet). Usually it was about the market for the products (bleeding edge, early adopter advantage). So, for example, I took positions in AMGN in 1980, MSFT in 1986, CREE in 2008, and so on.
But this early adopter advantage disappears as soon as the advisors to big funds get up to speed. Then market ups and downs are due to them. At the moment, they and most of the journalists are not up to speed on TSLA. I haven't felt this far ahead of the game in decades. We all knew the safety ratings were coming but the pro's did not; they weren't really following TSLA.
That's soon going to end. Wait too long and you may just as well buy the mutual funds that specialize in the area.
1986 MSFT. Wow! What kind of returns did you get on that? And did you invest a meaningful amount?
Was MSFT you're highest return investment? Or was it another company (ie., AMGN)?
