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Is $10K too much?

Discussion in 'Autopilot & Autonomous/FSD' started by Dan203, Oct 24, 2020.

  1. Dan203

    Dan203 Active Member

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    I think $10K is too much for FSD. I realize that at some point when it can truly drive itself $10K will be a bargain for those who are buying cars exclusively to use as full time robotaxis. But for the average customer who's just going to use it to get to/from work and the occasional road trip is adding 20-30% to the price of the car really worth it?

    Given that the stated goal of FSD is to make driving safer, it seems counterintuitive to price it so high that most people will opt not to buy it.
     
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  2. Daniel in SD

    Daniel in SD Well-Known Member

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    This question keeps coming up and I don't really understand it. You paid $50k+ for a car and you're wondering whether $10k is worth it for a car that drives itself? Think of all the stuff you could get done while the car takes you places! You could send the car to pick people up. You could send it to the store to get your groceries.
    The only question is whether Tesla can achieve it with the existing hardware, their promise is "dependent on achieving reliability far in excess of human drivers."
     
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  3. CaptainKirk

    CaptainKirk Member

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    Yes, I agree that it is too much upfront. If it were subscription based I would likely jump on it today, but I also don’t drive enough highway distance weekly to justify it. I’ve only got 1 Tesla, and if I upgrade to a different model let’s say in 5 years I would hate to have to pay again, even if there are no further price increases.
     
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  4. Routybouty

    Routybouty Member

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    Yes.
     
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  5. Dan203

    Dan203 Active Member

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    I'm fine driving myself. I get car sick when other people drive unless I look out the window at the road anyway so the ability to get other stuff done is not a selling point to me.

    And not everyone pays $50,000 for the car. Some get the $38,000 base model, and they’re working toward a $25,000 option. At that point FSD would increase the pric3 of the car by 40%.

    Edit: I can have groceries delivered to my house right now. Walmart+ and Instacart both provide me with this option without having to pay $10k upfront.
     
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  6. LowlyOilBurner

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    Currently, yes. I bought it at $6k, and I’m OK with that, $10k might move the needle for me though.
     
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  7. john5520

    john5520 Member

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    For me? Yeah, I'd start to have second thoughts at 10k. I got it at 7 which I thought was fairly high. For the Tesla market as a whole? Maybe not. Only time will tell, but I think the take rate would still remain high.
     
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  8. Saturday

    Saturday Member

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    what if FSD was broken out into two levels-

    5k for FSD that will only activate if there is a driver in the car
    10k+ for FSD that works whether someone is in the driver's seat or not

    this kind of separation can tease out the use cases a bit more
     
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  9. Tam

    Tam Well-Known Member

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    That's the point!

    The title is about the present time: I cannot fire my human chauffer just yet so it's an additional cost of $10,000 and not in place of a worker.

    It's just like buying an empty lot in the wilderness and eventually, because of the overpopulation on the earth, that lot will be worth 10 million dollars.

    So, $1,000 for that lot might be affordable, but would I pay $10,000 for it (because I know for sure that overpopulation will happen sooner or later)?
     
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  10. S'toon

    S'toon Knows where his towel is

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    Too rich for my blood.

    I have no intention of ever sending my car out to be a "robotaxi."

    He's basing the price of $10K on the the notion that everyone will jump on it and send their cars out. I don't think it's worth it.
     
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  11. Tiger

    Tiger Active Member

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    That's what the current basic included Tesla TACC autopilot does. If you need more than that, it's not really driving anymore (as has been proven many times, people don't pay enough attention).

    The other question is, will you keep your current car long enough for the officials to allow your car to do all you would want it (FSD) to do (further dependent on your location). I can't see myself keeping a car for much longer than 2 yrs at a time which is too short a window to either a) reap benefits (too short for payback time) from FSD or b) predict availability of full FSD (no driver in car) within that timeframe. However, if a non-binding subscription came a long, I could try it out here and there, and if it turned out to be a true game changer (car running errands on my behalf), it might affect my future purchases.
     
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  12. cucubits

    cucubits Active Member

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    But they want $10k for FSD now while the car most definitely does not drive itself yet.

    Yes, I think it's way too much, even with the "new" beta.
     
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  13. Led Jetson

    Led Jetson Member

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    When I first heard the news I decided that it would make more sense to wait 3-4 years for the next Tesla. But now that I think about it, what if FSD costs 20-25k at that time? I definitely wouldn’t want to pay 12-15k let alone what Elon may or may not hike it to depending on its advancement.

    I may drop the 8k in hope that in 3-4 years my car at the very least could be worth 15k+ just for the FSD itself.
     
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  14. cucubits

    cucubits Active Member

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    I'm sure elon is imagining such a future but I don't believe this will happen. By the time tesla gets FSD working (if they ever do), most likely other manufacturers will have pretty advanced driver assist systems out there too. I can't imagine any manufacturer being able to get away with charging that much for an option.
     
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  15. Jmont

    Jmont Member

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    [QUOTE
    I may drop the 8k in hope that in 3-4 years my car at the very least could be worth 15k+ just for the FSD itself.[/QUOTE]

    I'm not sure if the FSD package transfers to second market owners. :( I'm big-time on the fence about the decision to go FSD upgrade or not.. any good arguments pro/con ?
     
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  16. Daniel in SD

    Daniel in SD Well-Known Member

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    OP was making the assumption that the car would be able drive itself. If you assume that it's definitely worth $10k. Of course then OP went on to say that they being driven around in cars makes him car sick so then I would say it's obviously not worth $10k.
    Yeah, there's no way it's worth $10k right now. I would pay about $100 right now for it just to play with it for a few hours and then never use it again (I already have enhanced auto pilot).
    So to me the only questions are:
    1. When will the software will make the car driverless (from both a legal and practical standpoint)?
    2. What compensation will I receive if the car is never driverless?
    My answer to question 1 is that I think it will never happen for the cars sold today. The evidence so far is that I would receive no compensation if the car is never made driverless (people who leased FSD from Tesla for three years in 2016 received literally nothing and got no refunds).
     
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  17. Tam

    Tam Well-Known Member

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    I'm not sure if the FSD package transfers to second market owners. :( I'm big-time on the fence about the decision to go FSD upgrade or not.. any good arguments pro/con ?[/QUOTE]

    Pro:
    1) Seal in the price and prevent higher cost
    2) You can grow with the product: Good for nerds.
    3) It'll be driverless soon

    Cons:
    1) In the past, there were sales that defeated the belief of higher costs. Many 2016 people still had to pay $2,500 for MCU upgrade even when they already paid FSD which defeated the prevention of higher cost. It's possible that current owners will have to pay something in the future in addition too.
    2) The product is not mature enough to fire your drivers: Good for nerds but buying now is an additional cost of paying your existing drivers.
    3) There's hope that it will be driverless someday but there's no guaranteed of when.

    I paid for it, not because of financial sense but because I want to pay for the experience of growing with the product.
     
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  18. BentheRed

    BentheRed Member

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    For my lifetime of using a Tesla - NO, but per car because it’s not transferable- YES.
    I wonder if the other car manufacturers will starting adding FSD features free or cheaper to eat into Tesla’s EV lead - it’s a clear and obvious way of differentiating against Tesla. Even if they only offer the equivalent of EAP as standard, will it really be worth $10k extra just to get ‘stop at red light’ type features?
     
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  19. ElectricIAC

    ElectricIAC Devil’s Advocate

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    #19 ElectricIAC, Oct 25, 2020
    Last edited: Oct 25, 2020
    Over 6K was too much considering it does not transfer.

    I only have it because it was effectively free on our cars.
     
  20. Tam

    Tam Well-Known Member

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    I see. I do agree that $10,000 is too cheap to replace a salaried worker (driver) but if the owner is not in that kind of business, it might not make financial sense.
     

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