Is a Model 3 really cheaper?: A simplified analysis from an owner

[SammichLover]

If you want to be more specific, Vernon <-> Winfield and Vernon <-> Enderby are the spots I have the most trouble with.

He drove through there. He came up from the states and through Kelowna.

Of course it was "memory" as I've read a lot of his stuff, it was interesting following through it historically. Not sure how I'd find it on a search otherwise. He was very skeptical and concern about lots of things (check his threads/posts) but used it, and boom.

I don't know when you used yours last but it has heavily improved on curves.

In the interest of this thread though, perhaps it's best to drop the driver assist topic.

In the interests of this thread it's best you walk back your "they are equivalent vehicles" claim. Even within the narrow scope you've chosen.

 

[simplego]

No it wasn't. Do you have a link that specifies that?

Even right now an entire new pack is only $15,000. (With trade-in of your damaged one.) So no way replacing just the modules would be $20,000.

Please remember that the trade in pack has a bit of value to it as well. At least $2,000

 

[MXWing]

Those that say Tesla’s are cheaper than other cars are liars or bad at math.

Is it more “value”? Is it “worth it?”

Yes but you need to be prepared for anything that can go wrong with something expensive and lengthy to repair.

 

[SammichLover]

Those that say Tesla’s are cheaper than other cars are liars or bad at math.

Sure they can be cheaper. It depends on what you're comparing against, of course.

In my estimation I got a smoking deal on a BMW 340xi with most of the optionals, and a few aftermarket mods thrown in so it isn't such a dog.

<edit> The one where it is pipe dream is when you're comparing only to an existing vehicle you'd be replacing. New vehicle vs vehicle you already own and have largely depreciated out, yet remains mechanically sound, tends to be extremely lopsided for any vehicle.

 

[simplego]

Time will tell in regards to the “worth it” aspect since we will see how Tesla’s preform in terms of reliability. Since it would be crazy to say that the first few years Of the model S and X were anything close to reliable.

 

[camalaio]

Are those Canadian dollars?

Yes, everything I posted is CAD unless it specifically says USD, which was only in one spot. Apologies for the confusion.

In the interests of this thread it's best you walk back your "they are equivalent vehicles" claim.

I do apologise if you're interpreting my statements as absolute, however I did qualify that I'm treating them equivalently only given the criteria for the purchase decision (range, efficiency, AWD, etc.). AutoPilot was not a purchase decision, adaptive cruise was. And of course, how the vehicles perform in regard to each requirement (AWD, for example) is indeed different. Not everyone purchasing a Model 3 is considering a Cadillac with SuperCruise for comparison. I, for one, was considering a Crosstrek. Someone I know is debating between a VW Golf and a Model 3. Another may replace her Chevy Spark with a Model 3. None of them are doing it because of AutoPilot, they're doing it for the range and the EV aspects.

Let's not alienate people from Tesla just because there's things that people value aside from AutoPilot... the car is plenty fantastic outside of AP.

EDIT: To answer your "when did you last use AP", 2019.32... I can't remember the rest, but 32.

Those that say Tesla’s are cheaper than other cars are liars or bad at math.

Is it more “value”? Is it “worth it?”

Yes but you need to be prepared for anything that can go wrong with something expensive and lengthy to repair.

"Worth it" is indeed the question! Preparing for something going wrong is universally good advice, but especially so with EVs because when it goes wrong, $$$.

Time will tell in regards to the “worth it” aspect since we will see how Tesla’s preform in terms of reliability. Since it would be crazy to say that the first few years Of the model S and X were anything close to reliable.

I absolutely agree, we can only hope for the best at this point. I'm nervous that they've done so many different things (better on paper, TBD in reality) differently from previous models, but these things were of course necessary for production and advancement. And as you mentioned, previous models were not shining examples either, so change could easily be good. It's a risk I was willing to take, though I'd be lying if I said I don't still think about it.

 

[simplego]

I'm nervous that they've done so many different things (better on paper, TBD in reality) differently from previous models

From the current perspective it seems like the model 3’s are holding up better.
I hope your car holds up well and never gives you any issues

 

[Bet TSLA]

I absolutely agree that treating it as autonomous without attention or taking over is dangerous, and my past posts corroborate this. However, the distinction I am trying to draw is that other systems let you still control the direction of the car while the systems are still active. If you attempt to do the same with a Tesla, it cancels out autosteer. I prefer the former that lets me still drive, allows me to gives cars more room, and generally isn't a on-off approach to assist.

I think it is bizarre to even talk about what Tesla auto-pilot is like today when the car is constantly being updated. I mean that carping about details that will change shortly seems silly when trying to evaluate a future purchase.

Your comparison vehicle will never get any better, in fact it will get worse every year. Your Tesla will keep getting better. How can you assign that zero value? To me it's a significant multiplier to the value of the car at any point in its lifetime.

Pretending that battery prices won't go down significantly over eight years is fairly absurd given the history of the past thirty years.

Regardless of all these things, I think your comparison would be much more useful if you assume the vehicles will be sold after five years or so. Yeah, different things to guess at, but likely more meaningful to people considering purchase.

 

[MXWing]

Sure they can be cheaper. It depends on what you're comparing against, of course.

In my estimation I got a smoking deal on a BMW 340xi with most of the optionals, and a few aftermarket mods thrown in so it isn't such a dog.

<edit> The one where it is pipe dream is when you're comparing only to an existing vehicle you'd be replacing. New vehicle vs vehicle you already own and have largely depreciated out, yet remains mechanically sound, tends to be extremely lopsided for any vehicle.

A Model 3 versus a brand new BMW M3 I can see the Model 3 being cheaper after five years, hold better value etc.

Where people are disgusting is when they want to claim a Camry is cheaper than a Model 3.

Really? Cheaper to insure? Cheaper to register? Cheaper to maintain, easier to find and compare against shops?

People love to look at depreciation in percentage terms but absolute dollar values matter.

"Worth it" is indeed the question! Preparing for something going wrong is universally good advice, but especially so with EVs because when it goes wrong, $$$.

Best case puts you in Camry territory for no issues and years of reliability ownership.

Worst case knocks our your Model 3 for months at a time.

You can’t even uninsure it or prorate your registration when that happens.

 

[SammichLover]

Elon Musk on Twitter

"Modules, not pack". From the horse's mouth. And 5-7k, not 4-5k.

That's a pack refurbish, replacing the parts that wear faster. So basically a "good as new" pack will be, in his estimation, +/-$6K. At least that seems the right reading of that 140 character format. Squares fairly well, that's about $80/kWh after install and margin. Sounds plausible.

 

[afadeev]

Too long to read. You forgot to factor the depreciation. Model 3 LR cost too mich in Canada for sure, but it should loose value slow too (because of low maintenance).

Fair point on factoring in depreciation, alas, we have no data on TM3 depreciation.
The assumption that TM3 will depreciate way slower than Subaru Crosstrek may be wishful thinking. For one thing a large chunk of EV's additional first year depreciation is due to the government rebate laws (which vary by state, and across time). And then there is Elon's ongoing tweaking of Model 3 pricing, usually lowering it, and inducing extra depreciation hits to the cars already in driver's hands.

On top of the above, there is the issue of cost of insuring Model 3 vs. similar ICE vehicles.
In my experience, the only similarly priced cars that are more expensive to ensure than Model 3 are Audi's. The rest: BMWs, Mercedes, Toyotas, Hondas, and Subaru's are significantly cheaper.

This sucks, but it is true.

Otherwise $2000 Camry would win in every cost analysis.

Probably true.
Frankly, Camry will win in all utilitarian value-focused comparisons.
It is a remarkably competent car, a great value proposition, and my favorite rental (when traveling).
Dirt cheap to insure as well, and backed by both high quality manufacturing brand, and quality dealer service network. Everything that a Tesla owner can only dream about.

a

 

[SammichLover]

A Model 3 versus a brand new BMW M3 I can see the Model 3 being cheaper after five years, hold better value etc.

Where people are disgusting is when they want to claim a Camry is cheaper than a Model 3.

Really? Cheaper to insure? Cheaper to register? Cheaper to maintain, easier to find and compare against shops?

People love to look at depreciation in percentage terms but absolute dollar values matter.

Which Camry? My wife's XLE hybrid was, 7-8 years ago, current SR+ money. Curiously it wasn't a lot cheaper years-in to insure than my Model 3. But insurance varies wildly between companies for the Model 3, even year to year. I just dumped All-State because they sent my policy to the moon. Although it wasn't just the Model 3, not sure WTF happened there and why they didn't want my business?

Now if you're talking stripper, or ever mid-range Camry, then yeah that'll be very tough. Because Camrys tend to be rather reliable (or at least the older ones, I've heard materials skimping to chase price point is pointing in a bad direction for newer ones), are well above average for an ICE in holding value, and are reasonably fuel efficient (keeping the per mile operating benefits of the Model 3 lower). On the later it is actually pretty impressive what they've done, under certain conditions the new ICE keeps up to the old hybrid version.

But of course a bicycle beats a Camry and well, that's sort of the "comparison" issue in a nutshell.

 

[Petrocelli]

I assume your monthly costs involve financing? I admit I've only outlined this in terms of eventual costs without regard for a monthly budget. That said, I'm surprised it's only $100 when factoring in everything!

I compared two 3 year leases with $2,400 down, and 15,000 miles a year. The Mercedes was $615 a month including all scheduled maintenance, except the last one at 40,000 miles. The Tesla was $595.

I then added to this equation cost of installing a charger, local rebates, insurance, and fuel. The difference was $93.33 per month.

However, the difference in fuel cost was $111.17 per month.

 

[camalaio]

Oof, this is some lightning round of a thread. Good thing it's Friday. Thanks everyone for the participation!

Your comparison vehicle will never get any better, in fact it will get worse every year. Your Tesla will keep getting better. How can you assign that zero value? To me it's a significant multiplier to the value of the car at any point in its lifetime.

I do see your point, but I struggle with it. It's not certain that Tesla won't charge for feature updates (see Enhanced Summon going away in favour of Full Self Driving, for example). Other aspects of the car's software certainly change (creep mode, Joe mode, Tesla arcade, streaming), but it's nothing physical. Insurance agencies are sure having a difficult time valuing software-only features (many don't count your purchase of FSD into the value of the car, for example). So far there's no evidence that these changes play out into actual increases in value, and I somewhat doubt there will unless there's a payment made to enable the features. A large shift in vehicle valuation methods is required before this has any impact IMO, especially since Tesla is one of very few doing such updates.

Pretending that battery prices won't go down significantly over eight years is fairly absurd given the history of the past thirty years.

Yes, and also no. The chemistry could not change significantly (Lithium ion to, say, Unobtainium superthing) without changing additional components and their Superchargers, though I understand they've made significant effort for many of the related systems to be part of the battery pack itself now so perhaps that's not true. It's possible that the set of battery material constraints (chemistry, form factor, power characteristics, cooling needs) used in today's Model 3's could limit a cheaper and "better" technology from being able to simply swap in though. Future vehicles though? Heck yeah, I'm hoping and expecting some movement on the price to range ratio for sure.

Regardless of all these things, I think your comparison would be much more useful if you assume the vehicles will be sold after five years or so. Yeah, different things to guess at, but likely more meaningful to people considering purchase.

I agree entirely, I missed the mark on the average ownership term of a new car here. I'm actually going to rewrite this in some point with that in mind. What I find especially interesting is the used market down the road, but that requires even more speculation than resale 5 years down the road so I won't go there... but it will be very interesting. Moves the battery replacement costing way out, perhaps to the point of no one actually being willing to do the replacement.

Best case puts you in Camry territory for no issues and years of reliability ownership.

Worst case knocks our your Model 3 for months at a time.

You can’t even uninsure it or prorate your registration when that happens.

Well, to be fair, the ability to uninsure could be a regional thing. But being out of the car and some significant chunk of money while overall being worse off than the average Camry... yepp, that's all quite possible! I can't wait to see how these things do out of warranty. If it's bad, oh man that would suck for Tesla (and myself, owning one... all of you as well!). I really hope it's not bad, because the car is otherwise so good.

That's a pack refurbish, replacing the parts that wear faster. So basically a "good as new" pack will be, in his estimation, +/-$6K. At least that's seems the right reading of that 140 character format. Which squares fairly well, that's about $80/kWh after install and margin. Sounds plausible.

His statement says replacement, not refurb. The per-module quote may be due to LR and SR+ having a different number of modules (this is speculation on my part). I do hope you're correct though, technically in-the-know folk on this forum have mentioned that Tesla cannot replace individual modules of the Model S/X packs. However since all these modules likely wear evenly (disregarding more rare faults), the money spent (the number of modules replaced) has a linear relationship with the range improvement. If the whole pack is sufficiently degraded (evenly worn out), all modules would require replacement.

For one thing a large chunk of EV's additional first year depreciation is due to the government rebate laws (which vary by state, and across time).

I'm not sure if this holds true elsewhere, but after we lost some rebates in BC, Tesla decreased the price. The net effect is that no matter when one bought it, you'd be paying a somewhat equivalent amount (the difference being far less than the rebate originally was). This is difficult anyways: purchase prices for vehicles traditionally vary by the individual let alone the time of purchase as in Tesla's case. My new Honda Crosstour became cheaper after I bought it because they announced its discontinuation.

 

[SammichLover]

His statement says replacement, not refurb.

Modules replacement = pack refurbishment.

Because the modules are the parts of the pack more prone to wear (and mostly wear evenly, outside of defects that are likely to be triggered early in life).

 

[camalaio]

I compared two 3 year leases with $2,400 down, and 15,000 miles a year. The Mercedes was $615 a month including all scheduled maintenance, except the last one at 40,000 miles. The Tesla was $595.

I then added to this equation cost of installing a charger, local rebates, insurance, and fuel. The difference was $93.33 per month.

However, the difference in fuel cost was $111.17 per month.

Your comparison seems entirely reasonable (I'm not fact-checking you, seems in the right ballpark), leasing is not a case I considered (Tesla doesn't offer leasing on a Model 3 in Canada yet). With your amount of travel, using my resource numbers, difference in fuelling costs are very roughly $100 (in favor of the Tesla of course) so yeah that seems about right that the C300 costs you an extra $100/month given that the lease prices are very close and maintenance-included.

Thanks for providing numbers even when called out as FOS, this is a realistic comparison for the folks that lease vehicles. You're even acknowledging the Tesla is cheaper, just not what you valued on comparison given the cost difference. I personally never considered leasing any vehicle so this is an interesting perspective.

EDIT: This also of course is a comparison with an SR+, not LR. The value proposition of an SR+ is extremely attractive if the range is workable for your driving needs.

 

[Dan203]

This seems like such an apples and oranges comparison. You're comparing two cars that are in completely different classes. No one should be cross shopping a Tesla and a Subaru. The Model 3 is more in line with the BWM 3 series, Mercedes C class or the Lexus ES.

Unfortunately there aren’t currently any EVs in the Subarus price range and you're not going to make up the price difference in gas and maintenance no matter how much Tesla likes to point out "potential savings".

 

[SammichLover]

Thanks for providing numbers even when called out as FOS,

Cherrypicking to go to lease, which Tesla is known to have limited options on. <edit> Something-something-birds-of-a-feather.

P.S. I'm looking through the sources of "Disagrees" I'm getting here in this thread and going "hmmm". LOL

 

[camalaio]

This seems like such an apples and oranges comparison. You're comparing two cars that are in completely different classes. No one should be cross shopping a Tesla and a Subaru. The Model 3 is more in line with the BWM 3 series, Mercedes C class or the Lexus ES.

Unfortunately there aren’t currently any EVs in the Subarus price range and you're not going to make up the price difference in gas and maintenance no matter how much Tesla likes to point out "potential savings".

I get where you're coming from. Even the Nissan Leaf (with the highest range) isn't in the same price category as a Subaru at the moment. I sort of alluded to it earlier, but I don't consider the interior of sufficient... durability? to be considered luxury. The interior of a 3 series, C class are far beyond the Model 3. I'm assuming it's the same case for the Lexus you mentioned. As I see it, they only happen to be in the same price category given the electric premium, not the same luxury category. Heck, the interior of my Honda Crosstour is nicer depending on what you value. I'm comparing to a Subaru because... that's what I was doing. And friends and coworkers are comparing to Chevy Sparks, VW Golfs, Hyundai Sonatas, etc. that they either are about to purchase or are already own. The Model 3 has attracted the lower-value market up to its higher price tag, which is incredibly interesting. People value a competent EV enough that they're willing to drop what are still early-adopter prices on what is designed to be a simpler car.

On the other hand if you meant that there's a difference in performance category... well, yeah. I think it's fair to say that while the Model 3 is a very competent sporty car (if a bit heavy), many non-sporty-car people are buying them.

Cherrypicking to go to lease, which Tesla is known to have limited options on.

But that's exactly what many people will do (and what this person did!), and Tesla does offer it. Given the price ratios of the vehicles, Telsa is only very slightly more per month than it should be otherwise. I know plenty of people that have done two-year leases for many years. It's a common and completely valid comparison.

 

[eustachio]

I pay more per month in finance than I've ever paid before.

And I still feel like it's a bargain. Best. Car. Evar.

Tesla magic.