Is buying a Model S still worth it?

[xav-]

Hi everyone,

I was in line at the tesla store on March 31 and put a $1,000 deposit.

We were going to wait the 2 years and get the model 3. Then something happened about a month ago and my car (a Scion FR-S) got totaled by a drunk driver while being parked (no one hurt).

I actually don't absolutely need a car right away because I live close to work so my wife and I can potentially share our other car (Nissan Altima), however I find myself needing a car from time to time and I often end up renting one and I am kind of contemplating buying one soon.. And of course the first car that comes to mind is the Model S (70 RWD)

If tesla had not unveiled the model 3 honestly I would have pulled the trigger on a model S already. But having seen the model 3 which was pretty much advertised as a model S for half off (some could argue that it was advertised as something nicer than the current model s).. I am wondering if purchasing the model S right now would end up being a very costly financial decision.

How do you think the resale value will hold up? I know it has hold up extremely well so far but how can this keep up?

The fear of spending $80k on a car that will be worth half in 3 years is hitting me.

The stuff I like about the S over the 3
- the looks (looks more classy in my opinion)
- the hatch back trunk (kind of hoping to leave my dog in cargo)
- the guaranteed tax refund

The stuff I like about the 3 over the S:
- smaller car ( I don't need 7 passengers)
- of course the price.. Way way less

And then the stuff I really hate about the 3: 400k orders.. How long will we even end up waiting..? Sounds to me end of 2017 is very optimistic... I would expect 2 years from now at the very best case scenario and more likely end of 2018.. I live in California.

Thoughts?
Thanks

Xavier

 

[brkaus]

Personally, I tend to think they are different cars. The 3 won't tank the price of the S long term.

 

[Erandhawa]

Different cars model s is a larger car than the model 3. The 3 starts at a low price point but will easily get priced up with upgrades but definately not to model s pricing. I think you can look at the model s and model 3 like a 3 series bmw and a 7 series bmw. Either way until the model 3 is actually released it's all just assumption.

 

[calisnow]

The 3 will most likely debut with significantly more advanced autopilot hardware than is in the current S. Otherwise if money is no object and you value extra interior space, the smoother ride of a heavier car with a long wheelbase, and the safety advantages that come from heavier cars - the current S wins all the way. The 3, however, may have sportier handling.

But - the full autonomy hardware we will probably see at Model 3's launch is worth, to me, quite a bit. I will be trading in my autopilot S for a new S when the new hardware arrives.

And yes - buying an $80,000 car is ALWAYS a costly financial decision. The only way it makes sense is if you are moving away from another $80,000 car which burns tons of 91 octane gas and you drive a lot of miles - and plan to keep the car for enough years to where the savings equal out.

That's my situation - 30,000 miles per year of driving, and previous car burned 91 octane, 14 mpg @ $3 / gallon. The S will save $50,000 in fuel and oil over 8 years.

Otherwise dude - yes, you are burning money buying an S. BUT YOU WILL NOT REGRET IT AT ALL ONE YOU HAVE IT.

 

[wdolson]

I'm not 100% sure this will play out, but I think it's likely that when the Model 3 comes out, first off there will be a backlog of at least a year's orders, though it won't be as bad in California.

As people Model 3s get out there in the world, I expect demand will soar and Tesla will likely be backed up for a long time. Right now only upper middle class and rich people have Teslas so while a lot of people have heard about Teslas, a large segment of the population have not had a chance to drive one and really get to know the car. That will change as middle class neighborhoods get more Teslas.

With demand skyrocketing, people who don't want to wait will be looking for used Teslas and because your 70 will be one of the lower priced, fairly new cars out there, it will be affordable to more people and the price should hold up.

Once the Model 3 hits full production and they catch up with the back log, prices on used Model Ss may or may not slump. But that will probably take a couple of years. If nearly 400,000 people are willing to put down a deposit on something that doesn't exist yet, even more will be wanting to pull the trigger once they've seen it.

The Model S will also be the "debugged" Tesla for several years to come. The Model 3 will likely have fewer teething problems, but new cars always have some problems and the Model X is going to take a while to sort out its problems. The Model S is relatively reliable at this point. That's one of the attractions for me.

 

[jcaspar]

As you are not a current Model S owner, you will not get priority for a Model 3. Lets assume you are only #150,000 on the list. I suspect the "late 2017" deliveries will be more like mid 2018. At 50-100k produced per year for the first few years it will take about 2 more years for your car. So I bet you will have a Model 3 around mid 2020. Cost, with autopilot enabled and some nice options will be, I would guess, in the high 40's.

And even at 50% loss you are still much better off then if you had bought a S series Mercedes...
10 Cars That Depreciate Like a Stock Market Crash

 

[Todd Burch]

How about a used/CPO Model S?

 

[JPUConn]

How about a used/CPO Model S?

I did this. Have 2 pre-demo Model 3 orders in and totaled my car during a freak ice storm last month.

Purchased a CPO to:
1. get into a Tesla now
2. Move up in the line on the 3 by being a current owner
3. I'm not certain that the 3 will be large enough for my family so my backup plan is to keep 1 - S and 1 - 3.

IMHO, I wouldn't buy a new S unless it's a discounted inventory car or CPO purely to save your self on depreciation. I'm speculating that in 1-2 years when the 3 shows up my CPO S that will still be under warranty will only have lost $10k or so in value from what I paid (S85 for $44k today)

 

[Tampaukfan]

I dont understand why people feel like the 3 is going to be an S killer. The 3 is going to be cheap, meaning the interior is of lower quality, less range, lower performance, smaller on the inside, fewer creature comforts and more than more than likely auto pilot version 1.

No different than a C class/S class Mercedes, yes the cars look similar and share some traits but one is clearly superior.

 

[StaceyS]

I've wanted an electric car for ages. I typically keep my cars a very long time, and when my first car (a 1985 Volvo 740 wagon that my parents gave me when I graduated college) died in late 2010, it was too early to go electric. The Chevy Volt was just being released, but wasn't available in Oregon at that point. And no other EVs on the market (Leaf, Focus EV) had the range we need (we do a lot of long distance driving). So we bought a 2011 VW Jetta Sportwagen TDI, planning to keep it until the Model 3 was released.

The clouds parted for us last year when Tesla announced the CPO program. There was our chance to get a premium, long-range electric car for a discounted price, without having to wait for the Model 3, or still be stuck waiting for a Model 3 sized wagon. The Model S has almost the same cargo volume as our JSW, and with the 85 kwh battery, it has the range we need to get pretty much anywhere.

We bought a CPO P85 last year. We love it. Its gorgeous, its comfortable and its fast. We are very happy with our decision not to wait for the Model 3, particularly as it was revealed to be a sedan (I was holding out hope it would have been a lift-back).

 

[sickfox]

This sums it up!

but, going back to your original question, buying a MS is definitely worth it.

The 3 will most likely debut with significantly more advanced autopilot hardware than is in the current S. Otherwise if money is no object and you value extra interior space, the smoother ride of a heavier car with a long wheelbase, and the safety advantages that come from heavier cars - the current S wins all the way. The 3, however, may have sportier handling.

But - the full autonomy hardware we will probably see at Model 3's launch is worth, to me, quite a bit. I will be trading in my autopilot S for a new S when the new hardware arrives.

And yes - buying an $80,000 car is ALWAYS a costly financial decision. The only way it makes sense is if you are moving away from another $80,000 car which burns tons of 91 octane gas and you drive a lot of miles - and plan to keep the car for enough years to where the savings equal out.

That's my situation - 30,000 miles per year of driving, and previous car burned 91 octane, 14 mpg @ $3 / gallon. The S will save $50,000 in fuel and oil over 8 years.

Otherwise dude - yes, you are burning money buying an S. BUT YOU WILL NOT REGRET IT AT ALL ONE YOU HAVE IT.

 

[Boourns]

How about a used/CPO Model S?

Another + 1 for this. It's what we did. Even though it's older and fairly basic, I love it so much we are considering keeping it longer than we originally intended, with the Model 3 (or Y?) will become my wife's car.

 

[jgs]

If you can afford it, you won't regret spending two years (or more!) enjoying driving a Model S instead of spending those years drumming your fingers waiting for your Model 3 while blowing smoke out the tailpipe of some inferior vehicle.

If you can't afford it, then don't.

As for your resale value worries: I guess if this matters to you, take advantage of the Tesla resale value guarantee? It didn't enter into my calculations, I considered the entire purchase price sunk the moment I drove off in my car. I drove my previous car 15 years and depreciated it into the ground, I recouped exactly zero dollars of what I spent on it, but so what.

 

[RogerHScott]

The used route seems like it is worth serious consideration.
One way or another your wait for the M3 is likely to be longer than you're thinking.
My theory is that (unsatisfied) interest in the M3 is going to bolster used MS prices for some time.
If you get an MS -- any MS -- you will love it every day and never look back.

 

[rayng]

get a used ms. you'll love it.

 

[BEEZR]

I did this. Have 2 pre-demo Model 3 orders in and totaled my car during a freak ice storm last month.

Purchased a CPO to:
1. get into a Tesla now
2. Move up in the line on the 3 by being a current owner
3. I'm not certain that the 3 will be large enough for my family so my backup plan is to keep 1 - S and 1 - 3.

IMHO, I wouldn't buy a new S unless it's a discounted inventory car or CPO purely to save your self on depreciation. I'm speculating that in 1-2 years when the 3 shows up my CPO S that will still be under warranty will only have lost $10k or so in value from what I paid (S85 for $44k today)

Me too. But only $44k for an 85 is a rare deal even privately. That's a steal. I've got a 60 coming, fully loaded minus rear-facing seats and cold weather package for $51,800 plus shipping. The primary factors Tesla considers when pricing CPOs is days in service and miles, I was told...

 

[Zextraterrestrial]

cpo!

I am constantly asked if I am still liking my car and if I would get it again. (Dec/2012 p85)

I love my car and the only thing that comes into my mind is that I could have waited 3 years and saved $40k by getting a CPO but that is 3 years of soooo much fun & a ton of really neat people I have met that I would never have had a chance to meet otherwise.

 

[fluxemag]

I'd buy a CPO MS. By the time you get your Model 3 it will probably be 2019.

 

[Beryl]

Get the best Tesla you can afford now. You won't regret it.

 

[jerry33]

Get the best Tesla you can afford now. You won't regret it.

Right. My Model S doesn't have any of those things, but it does have 70K great driving miles.