Is buying a Model S still worth it?

[Superloud]

you live in California which should help. There are lots of Teslas around, and probably lots of folks upgrading from an older MS to a new MS or MX.

If you're willing to forgo autopilot, I think there are going to be more and more really good deals on used Ss. Folks perceive them as being obsolete. But IMHO, it's better to take advantage of that depreciation and get a great car for now, and save it for when fully autonomous driving comes.

 

[Manny13z]

I don't understand this. I don't hear people asking, will the BMW 3 series tank the price of the 6 series. Every car company has different cars at different price points, in the end it's individual affordability that makes the decision. A person that can afford the 6 series generally won't go purchase a 3 series to save $40k, if they can afford it and they want it, they get it. The Model S will still be a desirable car, people that can afford it will still buy it.

 

[jerry33]

I don't understand this. I don't hear people asking, will the BMW 3 series tank the price of the 6 series. Every car company has different cars at different price points, in the end it's individual affordability that makes the decision. A person that can afford the 6 series generally won't go purchase a 3 series to save $40k, if they can afford it and they want it, they get it. The Model S will still be a desirable car, people that can afford it will still buy it.

Correct. They are totally different cars.

 

[Blu Zap]

Ditto on the MS CPO. Fabulous deals, especially if you don't have the need for AP. Do it now. Don't wait.

 

[DrManhattan]

I'm kind of in a similar situation. Lease ends in August. Debating whether to get a new S, CPO, or lease something for a couple years. I'm leaning towards CPO since leasing will just make me throw away like $10k. I can get in an S now, move up in line, and keep it or sell it when the 3 comes out. I will get rid of my other car when the 3 comes out.

 

[Az_Rael]

I don't understand this. I don't hear people asking, will the BMW 3 series tank the price of the 6 series. Every car company has different cars at different price points, in the end it's individual affordability that makes the decision. A person that can afford the 6 series generally won't go purchase a 3 series to save $40k, if they can afford it and they want it, they get it. The Model S will still be a desirable car, people that can afford it will still buy it.

I think the concern is that right now (and for the near future), no one can buy Teslas equivalent of a 3-series. The OP is a good example. They would buy a 3 instead of an S right now if they could. The question is how many people bought an S because that's the only option they had, and if given the option for a 3 would have preferred that.

I suspect the S sales will dip after the 3 comes out, and may fall more in line with other manufacturers $80k variants. Used prices might be affected as people choose to get a new 3 for the same price as a used S. But we won't know the full effect until both models are out, available, and "competing" with each other. So it can't be compared against BMW quite yet.

 

[GasKilla]

http://ev-cpo.com

Get a used one for less than $60k, you'll love it etc.

 

[RogerHScott]

Used prices might be affected as people choose to get a new 3 for the same price as a used S. But we won't know the full effect until both models are out, available, and "competing" with each other.

The "available and competing with each other part" is crucial here. Just because the 3 exists (i.e., is being sold at all) doesn't mean there'll be enough of them to meet the demand for 3-ish cars. Until supply catches up with that demand (any wagers as when
that might be?) it will go the other way -- unsatisfied 3 demand will spill over into the used S market, boosting prices there.

 

[Superloud]

The question of how tesla MS sales in particular are going to hold up over the next 2 years is a super intriguing one.

I dont buy the Idea that the S and the 3 markets will exist in bubbles - not cannibalizing one another to some degree. It's why BMW doesn't sell a 3.1 series, a 3.2 series, a 3.3 series, etc...

They need to create enough differentiation to keep the S sales healthy. It's probably foolish to compare the S of today to the 3 of late 2017. That's a fair amount of time to grow the S's feature set

 

[xav-]

How about a used/CPO Model S?

Well, I looked into CPOs. I can get a S60 from 2013 with low miles for $50-55k. But..

• There is no $10k tax cut (Federal + CA)
• the car is 3 year old
• there is no auto pilot
• and likely there is no 78 month financing at 1.74 percent rate.

Honestly, I would rather spend $15-20k more and get a brand new 70 with auto pilot and some nice options (I am including the tax rebate).

I realize that I may be missing something though. Thanks for asking that question.

 

[xav-]

I don't understand this. I don't hear people asking, will the BMW 3 series tank the price of the 6 series. Every car company has different cars at different price points, in the end it's individual affordability that makes the decision. A person that can afford the 6 series generally won't go purchase a 3 series to save $40k, if they can afford it and they want it, they get it. The Model S will still be a desirable car, people that can afford it will still buy it.

Not sure it's exactly like the BMW case. A lot of people spent more than they wanted to buy a Model S for lack of a descent cheaper alternative EV. I suspect that contributed to the great resale value.

I doubt Model S CPOs will be as popular as they are now when the 3 is around. Not saying they won't sell either, but I suspect resale values will be more in line with Mercedes and BMW at some point. My 2 cents.

 

[xav-]

The question of how tesla MS sales in particular are going to hold up over the next 2 years is a super intriguing one.

I dont buy the Idea that the S and the 3 markets will exist in bubbles - not cannibalizing one another to some degree. It's why BMW doesn't sell a 3.1 series, a 3.2 series, a 3.3 series, etc...

They need to create enough differentiation to keep the S sales healthy. It's probably foolish to compare the S of today to the 3 of late 2017. That's a fair amount of time to grow the S's feature set

Well, in my case it's either I buy today or wait until 2017 (or more likely 2019....)

 

[The Lorax]

Totally agree. Always get the best you can. You'll never regret an S.

 

[SΞXY P100D]

Ditto above. Buy an MS today if you can afford it. Otherwise, save the money and use it to purchase options for the M3.

I would love to own a MS today but for me it's too expensive (to buy, insure and repair in case of an accident) and too big for my tiny garage. Plus, 1.5-3 years wait isn't long in the grand scheme of things. Although reading TMC multiple times a day tends to slow down time unfortunately!

 

[Spidy]

Well, I looked into CPOs. I can get a S60 from 2013 with low miles for $50-55k. But..

• There is no $10k tax cut (Federal + CA)
• the car is 3 year old
• there is no auto pilot
• and likely there is no 78 month financing at 1.74 percent rate.

Honestly, I would rather spend $15-20k more and get a brand new 70 with auto pilot and some nice options (I am including the tax rebate).

I realize that I may be missing something though. Thanks for asking that question.

I don't think you are. Those S60 CPOs don't look like a great deal at all compared to a new Model S, especially considering you get 10kWh more (remember Tesla charges $3000 just for the 75 upgrade) not to mention all the small upgrades Tesla has made.

 

[Todd Burch]

You can probably find a better deal finding a used car in the private market.

 

[electracity]

The wildcard affecting used prices is AP 2.0. Next year will probably be the very uncertain as far as used Tesla prices.

 

[Manny13z]

Not sure it's exactly like the BMW case. A lot of people spent more than they wanted to buy a Model S for lack of a descent cheaper alternative EV. I suspect that contributed to the great resale value.

I doubt Model S CPOs will be as popular as they are now when the 3 is around. Not saying they won't sell either, but I suspect resale values will be more in line with Mercedes and BMW at some point. My 2 cents.

It's certainly possible, however, I trust Tesla will make the Model S compelling enough for it to still be desirable.

 

[brkaus]

Well, I looked into CPOs. I can get a S60 from 2013 with low miles for $50-55k. But..

• There is no $10k tax cut (Federal + CA)
• the car is 3 year old
• there is no auto pilot
• and likely there is no 78 month financing at 1.74 percent rate.

Honestly, I would rather spend $15-20k more and get a brand new 70 with auto pilot and some nice options (I am including the tax rebate).

I realize that I may be missing something though. Thanks for asking that question.

I believe your answer is correct. IF one had the money, I'd go with new. But $10k-$14k is a lot of money.

 

[Superloud]

Well, I looked into CPOs. I can get a S60 from 2013 with low miles for $50-55k. But..

• There is no $10k tax cut (Federal + CA)
• the car is 3 year old
• there is no auto pilot
• and likely there is no 78 month financing at 1.74 percent rate.

Honestly, I would rather spend $15-20k more and get a brand new 70 with auto pilot and some nice options (I am including the tax rebate).

I realize that I may be missing something though. Thanks for asking that question.

You're right! 50-55k for a 60 is not worth it!

I had a 5k deposit for an X. And over the last almost 2 years I had been taking pot shots at sellers on craigslist, trying to find that one who would sell at a price low enough to keep me from simply making the jump to a new X.

2 months ago I bought my 2013 P85 with everything except cold weather, including a new in box Tesla HPWC, evannex center console, tinted windows, all for $55k. I got them to add the 4yr ESA for $4k more. So $59k for a loaded P85 with 33k miles. So now I have a better than CPO 5.25yr / 67k mile warranty.

I think I did pretty well, I set my bar pretty high for wanting a deal good enough to keep me from going new. But it took me 1-2yrs to find that deal. There's no substitute for patience

That said, I did this just before the MS refresh, and just as the 3 was announced. So I think you should use my data point as a guide to shoot for and you should be able to find a similar deal if you're willing to watch craigslist every day or two.

Oh, another piece of advice. Try and find cars about 3yrs old. Then use Teslas trade in formula of 50% X base price + 43% X options to guess what those sellers might be offered by tesla as a trade in. FYI, tesla only guarantees that trade in value if the owner financed through tesla. So folks who own outright have no guarantee. My car was 2.75yrs old when I bought it, and I openly used Teslas formula on them as a negotiation tactic, to the sellers surprise, when they went to see what tesla would give them, my guess was only off by like $600 (and tesla offered $600 *under* my guess, even though the car wasn't even 3yrs old yet).
Tesla offered something like $51k trade in. The seller agreed to $55k including all the extras and stuff. And in return I ubered right to their closest bank and wrapped the whole thing up for them in about 2 hours start to finish. I offered them ranger service if you will. Don't underestimate the value of that too