Is doubling the amount of SC's going to be enough?

[tezzla]

I was at Rancho Cucamonga yesterday afternoon for about an hour, never an open spot for more than 30 seconds.

 

[mgboyes]

Between now and end 2017 the number of Teslas (S and X) on the road is going to double, so doubling the number of SC bays is the bare minimum required to maintain the current ratio.

Much more substantial scale increases (both number of sites, and number of bays per site) are required to support expected Model 3 numbers.

 

[techmaven]

Clearly, for the U.S., there is one Supercharger expansion effort to cover more routes, and another to keep up with demand in CA.

The only time I have even seen a full Supercharger comes during times where owners have a meet up at or near one. Now that the Delaware Supercharger has been expanded, I suspect from now to end of 2017, I won't ever see a full Supercharger on the east coast.

I do wonder if it makes more financial sense for Tesla + SolarCity + utility company offered a special package where your EV charging is significantly discounted (free? 5 cents? 10 cents?) with a special meter in specific parts of CA where the residential nighttime cost of electricity is high. That could significantly reduce the usage of Superchargers for locals. And/or, kick in money for condo installs.

 

[sorka]

Why will it take twice as long?

Roughly twice as long. More precisely, more like 84%(almost twice as long).

To charge an 85D to 200 miles takes 45 minutes. Charging an S60 to 200 miles takes 85 minutes. Do the math.

The above chart was taken from the following thread:

Model S supercharging times compared S60, S70D, S85, P85D, S85D | Tesla Motors

Note, we're talking miles, not SOC. It takes the same time for each battery size to hit the same SOC but the same SOC on a smaller battery is fewer miles. As the SOC increases, the charge rate drops dramatically. And this is assuming that the S3 even has a 60 kWh battery. It shouldn't need that to hit 215 miles given the lower weight, lower frontal area, and skinnier tires. If it's a 55 kWh battery, then the time difference will be even greater.

 

[sorka]

Why do you say that? The battery is going to be comparable to a 70, in the base version. It should only take a few minutes more. Certainly not twice as long, unless I'm missing something.

Who says????? The S60 gets 208 EPA miles but the S3 will be a much lighter with a smaller frontal area an skinnier tires. It won't need anything like the size of a 60 kWh battery to hit 215 miles.

 

[techmaven]

charge an 85D to 200 miles takes 45 minutes. Charging an S60 to 200 miles takes 85 minutes. Do the math.

Yeah, but this is a particularly bad case. You are looking at 95+% charge. There is a reason why Superchargers are normally spaced at 120 to 140 miles apart. I suspect the Model 3 pack arrangement is not going to be as bad for Supercharging as the 60 kWh Model S. If it were just slightly worse than the 70, which has a very different charge profile that can take 370 amp peak charging, we're talking 45 minutes for 160 miles. Design goal is probably 35 minute stop to jump to the next Supercharger. The most common Supercharge amount is 30-40 kWh or around 100 miles of range.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Roughly twice as long. More precisely, more like 84%(almost twice as long).

To charge an 85D to 200 miles takes 45 minutes. Charging an S60 to 200 miles takes 85 minutes. Do the math.

I think he is talking about like for like since you didn't mention which battery. For example for a base S70 vs a base Model 3 (~60kWh?), the Model 3 shouldn't take anywhere close to twice as long to charge.

 

[sorka]

Yeah, but this is a particularly bad case. You are looking at 95+% charge. There is a reason why Superchargers are normally spaced at 120 to 140 miles apart. I suspect the Model 3 pack arrangement is not going to be as bad for Supercharging as the 60 kWh Model S. If it were just slightly worse than the 70, which has a very different charge profile that can take 370 amp peak charging, we're talking 45 minutes for 160 miles. Design goal is probably 35 minute stop to jump to the next Supercharger. The most common Supercharge amount is 30-40 kWh or around 100 miles of range.

Well hopefully they'll have newer cell technology that can take higher Cs either through improved chemistry, better cooling, or both.

But superchargers are not "normally" spaced at 120 - 140 miles apart. Some areas do have spacing like this but many don't.

And even when I take routes that do, I often skip superchargers and charge to a higher SOC even though I know that the total charging time is increased. But it's partly offset from eliminating the extra overhead of the extra stop and partly because 120 miles is often too soon for the family to want to stop again when they'd rather push it out to 3 hours and take a nice long bathroom/drink break or actually sit down to eat.

Even if you did stop every 140 miles to recharge, it's still 57% longer to charge for a 60 vs an 85.

 

[scaesare]

"We're going to need a bigger boat."

 

[sorka]

I think he is talking about like for like since you didn't mention which battery. For example for a base S70 vs a base Model 3 (~60kWh?), the Model 3 shouldn't take anywhere close to twice as long to charge.

Good point.

 

[Sir Guacamolaf]

Suggestion -

Future Model S's should not include lifetime free supercharging.
Supercharging should cost you equal to what it'd cost you to charge at home.
And enabling supercharging on your car should be as simple as entering a credit card# on your mytesla account.

Basically take away all incentive to leech, and remove all hassle of payment processing too.
And build LOADS of superchargers with that money.

And then if someone uses supercharger frequently - y'know they probably need to (cab driver/frequent traveller/condo dweller etc.etc.). We don't frown when someone uses the gas station a lot do we? (other then pollution of course)

 

[Xpress]

So you would need to stop and charge between 40 and 60 min for every 130-160 miles driven in a current S60 (or M3) with current technology?

 

[huntjo]

Why will it take twice as long?

Max safe charge rate is proportional to size of battery pack (safe for battery longevity)

 

[sandpiper]

Suggestion -

Future Model S's should not include lifetime free supercharging.
Supercharging should cost you equal to what it'd cost you to charge at home.
And enabling supercharging on your car should be as simple as entering a credit card# on your mytesla account.

Basically take away all incentive to leech, and remove all hassle of payment processing too.
And build LOADS of superchargers with that money.

And then if someone uses supercharger frequently - y'know they probably need to (cab driver/frequent traveller/condo dweller etc.etc.). We don't frown when someone uses the gas station a lot do we? (other then pollution of course)

I agree with this. And they should also charge a nominal fee - say $5.00 per charging hour for the time that you're plugged in. That would go toward the capital cost, maintenance and so on. Even so, I suspect that most SC stations would likely still lose money - but at least a lot less. It would discourage leeches and it would open the door for use by commercial operators.

 

[Zarwin]

Now that the Delaware Supercharger has been expanded, I suspect from now to end of 2017, I won't ever see a full Supercharger on the east coast.

Lumberton, NC 4-stall will be the next east coast I-95 bottleneck. I've rolled up to it a couple of times now and taken the last spot, though never had to wait. Luckily it appears that it has extra conduit run for expansion from 4 to 6 stalls already, just needs to happen before the Model 3 or that little 4 stall is going to be clogged up.

This was from last summer and was the second time I've hit it at max capacity.