Hmmm, this is an interesting statement. I’m not sure it will be even close to true on average, but I’m willing to be persuaded. For smaller batteries without TMS, it “might” be closer to true, but even there I doubt it. The WORST case battery, 2010-2012 Leaf, which I’m still using after 7.5 years, is probably the one most degraded. Nissan replaced lots of batteries under warranty, but listed a non-warranty replacement cost of $6500. Since these vehicles are barely worth that on the open market, very few people will pay for replacement. So, other than warranty replacement, nearly everyone will upgrade to a new EV, passing the old one to those who can use the lower range (students, retirees, small city dwellers, etc.). This is exactly what TaylorShellfishGuy did with his 150,000 mi 2011 Leaf. Nobody will ever spend $6500 for a new battery. That battery has seen 2000+ cycles, which is similar to 400,000-600,000 mi in a Tesla.
Longer range EV batteries should go well past the usable life of the car, unless there is a major failure and warranty replacement. I did read that one person actually persuaded Tesla to swap his 60 KWh battery for an 85, for a princely some. A few years later, he traded in the car for a new 100D, finally realizing that new cars are better than trying to keep upgrading old ones. As far as I know that is the only case of a manufacturer upgrading the battery. Nissan certainly won’t do it, even though it may be technically possible (a few private parties have swapped batteries, some even upgrading to larger batteries).
Therefore, only warranty replacement of batteries on average, which is maybe 5-10% of those sold. Also, these batteries will be 100% used for grid storage and recycled. This will definitely lower the average environmental cost of new batteries. Am I missing something?
