Is it more environmen friendly to keep driving your old ICE car vs. buy new EV? (no for most people)

[Ludalicious]

You also mention that Tesla require 2 batteries over their lifetime. Where does this information come from? The chart above only shows 161,000 miles. There are allot of Teslas on this site on their first battery with far more miles on them.

 

[nwdiver]

You also mention that Tesla require 2 batteries over their lifetime. Where does this information come from? The chart above only shows 161,000 miles. There are allot of Teslas on this site on their first battery with far more miles that that on them.

Maybe he was referring to the 12v battery and the HV Battery... 1,2

 

[acoste]

You also mention that Tesla require 2 batteries over their lifetime. Where does this information come from? The chart above only shows 161,000 miles. There are allot of Teslas on this site on their first battery with far more miles that that on them.

The average age of cars in the US is 11.6 years. The distribution is not a simple linear line but for making calculations simple I would just say that the life time of a car is 23.2 years.
My estimation is that the Li NCA battery won't last longer than 12 years. You can agree or disagree with this that's fine. But looking at the miles only is not enough. Batteries age with time as well.

Given that the electric cars are a lot simpler, they have a good chance to last for at least 20 years. (30 in California) Therefore it is a good idea to replace the battery at the 10 year mark instead of having it dead at the age of 13-15 year and trash the otherwise functioning car.

 

[Ludalicious]

The average age of cars in the US is 11.6 years. The distribution is not a simple linear line but for making calculations simple I would just say that the life time of a car is 23.2 years.
My estimation is that the Li NCA battery won't last longer than 12 years. You can agree or disagree with this that's fine. But looking at the miles only is not enough. Batteries age with time as well.

Given that the electric cars are a lot simpler, they have a good chance to last for at least 20 years. (30 in California) Therefore it is a good idea to replace the battery at the 10 year mark instead of having it dead at the age of 13-15 year and trash the otherwise functioning car.

Over 20 yrs. @ 20,000 kms a year. That's 400,000 kms. I agree with those stats.. Ya new battery. Unless it's a 100 then someone might still be happy with 200 km range of charge at 40% approximately. No way will an M5 over 400,000 kms be better for the environment.

In all fairness the M5 will also require a new engine at 200,000 kms.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

Solar doesn't work at night.

And when/where do a lot of those Google/Apple/FB, etc employees charge? At work, during solar hours, at those free stations.

 

[acoste]

And when/where do a lot of those Google/Apple/FB, etc employees charge? At work, during solar hours, at those free stations.

You do not seem to understand the scale of this issue.
Germany has got to the point where they can't add any more solar and wind share to the energy mix because they can't compensate for more productivity swing caused by the weather. EVs are driven by a specific schedule, can't wait for the wind or sun. Sure some of them may be usable for balancing the energy need but it won't solve the situation.
California's weather is more steady so I think there is more chance here for a smooth supply.

Here is an article about the gravity trains:
“Gravity Trains” As Energy Storage

 

[Richt]

Hmmm. A lot of the analysis seems to miss two facts. First is that base load power (even if coal) has to run regardless. That means that if an EV is powered and recharged st might it has very little to zero marginal green house gas increase.

Second is that as you say solar rollout is growing like crazy. And I have to say it’s nice to live in a house with lots of hydro

 

[nwdiver]

EVs are driven by a specific schedule, can't wait for the wind or sun. Sure some of them may be usable for balancing the energy need but it won't solve the situation.

The average commute is ~40 miles. The average pack size is looking to be >200 miles soon. So most cars can wait 2-3 days to charge. I drive ~80 miles/week... so I could wait 2 weeks to charge if needed... There are 14.5 Million registered cars in California alone. If 10M cars have 20kWh available for buffering that's 200GWh of available storage. For context a large pumped hydro plant like raccoon mountain has ~30GWh of storage.

With demand response the 'specific schedule' can easily be when surplus wind or solar is available. When charging is convenient for the grid.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

You do not seem to understand the scale of this issue.
Germany has got to the point where they can't add any more solar and wind share to the energy mix because they can't compensate for more productivity swing caused by the weather. EVs are driven by a specific schedule, can't wait for the wind or sun. Sure some of them may be usable for balancing the energy need but it won't solve the situation.
California's weather is more steady so I think there is more chance here for a smooth supply.

Here is an article about the gravity trains:
“Gravity Trains” As Energy Storage

Yes, I do understand the gravity of the situation related to integrating more renewables into the grid, but that is not the topic of this thread.

 

[Ludalicious]

Let's not forget about the ocean.

 

[Ludalicious]

Hmmm. A lot of the analysis seems to miss two facts. First is that base load power (even if coal) has to run regardless. That means that if an EV is powered and recharged st might it has very little to zero marginal green house gas increase.

Second is that as you say solar rollout is growing like crazy. And I have to say it’s nice to live in a house with lots of hydro

The world is catching up. some districts are further ahead than others. Let's look at my situation for an example.

An efficient, low cost electricity system forB.C. More than 90% of BC Hydro's generation is produced by hydroelectric generation, which is generally the most cost-effective, clean and reliable option. We also continue to investigate alternative sources of energy, such as wind and wave power.

 

[juliusa]

And you forgot about the 32% natural gas share.

I didn't forget about anything.

Producing electricity from natural gas produces about half the emissions of coal, which is why the % that comes from coal is the important number. 0% in California and 4 other states.

In the US, electricity demand is pretty much flat despite rising population and substitution of electricity for fossil fuels (electric heat pumps, EVs as some examples), and the emissions per kWh generated is going down due to the cleaning of the grid (more renewables, less coal).

Which is why the emissions in the US are declining from earlier levels.

 

[thx1139]

Why even post vehicles that's not comparable? why not post stats of 2 smart cars beside it?

If we dont know the stats on a equal performance vehicles Emissions over its life time what are we even looking at then?

Isnt the comparison really about size not performance?

 

[SageBrush]

Grid mix is also not an accurate indication of the energy an EV would use. Off-peak energy is often a higher percentage of wind. As demand response programs become more common EVs could use wind or solar energy that would have been curtailed if there wasn't an EV waiting to take a charge. We'll likely see ~90% clean energy to EVs before grid average hits ~30% clean energy.

Fingers crossed.

For now, I think the more typical scenario is that utilities offer low cost electricity to keep their (fossil; often coal) plants running at full tilt.

 

[SageBrush]

and the emissions per kWh generated is going down due to the cleaning of the grid (more renewables, less coal).

Agreed that renewables have contributed, but the lion's share of the decrease so far has been substitution of coal by NG. I hope to see that flip in the future.

 

[SageBrush]

wind does. That's the great thing about EVs... they're flexible demand. When is it sunny? Ok, that's when I'll take electrons. When is it windy? Ok, that's when I'll take electrons.

Yes!

I'm always amused by the 'duck curve' of CA since they start the graph at 10-15 GW. Meaning the curtailment is self-inflicted.

 

[mspohr]

But the whole fallacy is that when you switch cars, your old car is no longer used. Since it will be gong to someone else, the whole discussion really doesn't make sense.

It may be used by someone else but that person will not be using another ICE car, most likely so your used car is not an additional burden on the climate, it just displaces some other ICE car burden. (And, using the rule of turtles, at the bottom of the stack, a very old ICE car will get scrapped.)

 

[mspohr]

Solar doesn't work at night.

OMG ! I never realized that!
I never realized that I by charging my car during the day when my solar panels are generating, I am storing their power. I guess I am brilliant and didn't even know it.

 

[Ludalicious]

Isnt the comparison really about size not performance?

True. I was just pointing out that showing 2 vehicles side by side that are far from each other performance wise is misleading. I would love to see the comparison on the M5 with P100D charging on a grid that's getting it's power from 90% renewable energy. That would be great

 

[juliusa]

Agreed that renewables have contributed, but the lion's share of the decrease so far has been substitution of coal by NG. I hope to see that flip in the future.

Yes. While replacement with renewables cuts emissions by 100%, replacement with NG cuts emissions by 50%. Still pretty good.