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Is it the right time to trade up to HW2?

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Full Driving Capability is still a way off so that's not a pull on me to trade in my 2016 car, but is HW2? Now? Soon?

Totally depends on what you’re in to! While AP1 remains extremely competitive if not superior, IMO resale values are propped up. But HW2 is getting to the point that at least for highway usage, it’s fairly similar and competitive to AP1. I made the jump from AP1 to AP2 at 17.4.14, and it was admittedly a bit early. But now 17.28 seems like a more compelling jumping point.

It all depends on why you’re considering the upgrade. Personally I STILL wouldn’t do it just for AP1 -> AP2. I’d do it if there’s other things you’re looking for.
 
I almost did it last December when i read the words "full self driving". I'm glad I didn't. My two cents - this is not the time. Wait at least 12 months - you're driving an S, and I don't think the experience is going to get any better than what you already have for quite some time.
 
I have just changed from HW1 ro HW2 and with the current software 17.28.c528869 I would say that in many ways HW2 is comparable of better now, though there are still some comparitive deficiencies.

The new nose was also one of my big reasons to change and all of a sudden I get everyone looking at the car again !

Like other though I beleive Tesla are working on a significant update to the Model S, but then you can mostly always say that, whether you chose to wait (in vain?) or not your call.

One other thing I did find is there does seem to be a ongoing fixing of small details and the car generally feels slightly better built.
 
No. It is not the right time.

Model 3 will very likely cause a ripple-effect of changes to Model S/X (smaller like we are seeing now or bigger e.g. interior refresh akin to Model 3 rumoured with an upgraded big screen computer) and we already know Model 3 is sporting hardware 2.5 of AP and of course the new 2170 battery cell, not available on Model S/X yet.

So both from overall product change perspective as well as from an Autopilot perspective, I would wait at least until Q4 personally, but until Q1 would be even better. And then see where things stand.

Of course it is never a good time to buy a Tesla at this rate of change, but I would say now is a particularly bad time due to Model 3.
 
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@benflux @oktane hasn't the slightest clue what he's talking about when he makes predictions for the future. Owning both cars I say AP2 is very very close to AP1 in performance right now and is in some ways better (no truck lust ever), handles narrowing roads more reliably in my experience. However no great need to upgrade right now - I'd wait til early 2018 personally.

Let's be exact: AP2 does not have AP1's object recognition or speed traffic-sign recognition, though. It is still the worse product. It will not be the worse product forever, but still today it is. It is true, of course, that certain streets may be handled better or worse on both sides.
 
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Full Driving Capability is still a way off so that's not a pull on me to trade in my 2016 car, but is HW2? Now? Soon?
You want to upgrade to a hardware suite that, currently, cannot provide comparable capabilities to the previous one? Doesn't make much sense to me. Newer is only better if it performs better. Forget FSD, Enhanced Autopilot hasn't even shipped yet. What HW2 is currently delivering is a poor, dysfunctional version of Gen 1 Autopilot. Personally I would not upgrade to any new Model S until Tesla can show that it actually plans on delivering what it promised.

If you want a new car, then go for it. But I don't think HW2 is any sort of logical justification.
 
...What HW2 is currently delivering is a poor, dysfunctional version of Gen 1 Autopilot. ... justification.

Nope - currently with both a HW1 and HW2 Tesla ModelS I can't agree with that in respect of Autopilot.
I would say parity with some minor +/- differences for each platform.

The missing Auto headlights and rain sensing though remain notable omissions on HW2, so this certainly is a negative for now at least.
 
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I think it is likely that upcoming changes may increase price of the base model so if you care about that it is a good time to upgrade now.

Tesla have promised full self driving capabilities for AP2.0 cars so I would expect them to upgrade anyone for free if new hardware is needed.
 
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Let's be exact: AP2 does not have AP1's object recognition or speed traffic-sign recognition, though. It is still the worse product. It will not be the worse product forever, but still today it is. It is true, of course, that certain streets may be handled better or worse on both sides.
You can't defend that statement because there are some things AP2 does better - as I just mentioned. So to make your statement stick you have to arbitrarily place more value on some things than others. You've moved beyond facts and into ethics. Beware - sticky ground.