Is Musk lying on maximum battery capacity?

[Reciprocity]

Good, and I do expect the cell price to be in that area I mentioned - or below. So then we almost agree



Until resently they had on their Model S and X cars the choice of 60 - 75 - 90 - 100
60 -> 75 is 15kWh
75 -> 90 is 15kWh
90 -> 100 is 10kWh
Yes, I do know that it currently is only
75 -> 100 that is 25kWh.

60 -> 75 is 15kWh.
... and a 15kWh difference on a smaller, lighter car wold not be any less range difference then the same kWh difference on bigger heavier cars?

Totally different situation. One is a mature product where demand and supply are more on sync. When demand way out strips supply by like 10x then you can ask more for higher margin versions of the car, while still maintaining the promote of a $35k base version.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Technically Elon did say:

Come on now. We all remember the huge anti-selling campaign led by Elon himself.

You remember the campaign where he constantly touted how the Model S is the "flagship" car and that the Model 3 isn't the next better version of the Model S. The Model S will go faster, quicker, have more options and all kinds of better stuff than the Model 3.

 

[JeffK]

Come on now. We all remember the huge anti-selling campaign led by Elon himself.

You remember the campaign where he constantly touted how the Model S is the "flagship" car and that the Model 3 isn't the next better version of the Model S. The Model S will go faster, quicker, have more options and all kinds of better stuff than the Model 3.

True but is was during that very same tweet storm
Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[Garlan Garner]

Totally different situation. One is a mature product where demand and supply are more on sync. When demand way out strips supply by like 10x then you can ask more for higher margin versions of the car, while still maintaining the promote of a $35k base version.

You can't simply ask for higher margins with the same selling prices when the cost of the parts is the same --- simply because people want the car.

Higher margins = cheaper costs or higher selling price.

People aren't just going to shove money in your face because there is a desire for a product.

 

[Garlan Garner]

True but is was during that very same tweet storm
Elon Musk on Twitter

My point is this.

The Model 3 is "technically" a different car than the Model S.

They function the same. But they are different.

They will have different motors. They have different battery cells. Different battery densities. They have different wiring. They have a different shape and size and weight. They have different screens. They will have different wheel rim choices. They have different headlights. They have different tail lights ( brake lights).

That keeps us from just simply saying things like "well the dual motor in the Model S costs this much so..... the Model 3 will cost this much".

They are different motors. Different Technologies. Now if you want to compare the Model S with the Model X....ok then. Now we can have a conversation.

Tell me what is the same about both of them....and then we can speculate.

What is the same? Steering wheel? Pedals? Colors?

 

[stopcrazypp]

Although, I don't know the story behind this pic

I dug up the old thread. Those are spacers, not dummy cells. Dummy cells have the tab just like real cells (because they need to provide a connection to other cells in a series; typically used in a flashlight), but those are completely blank in the middle.

Tesla cuts 60kWh Model S, entry-level Model S is now 70D.

But I was more going off memory from the NHTSA picture where the spacers weren't apparent and it just looked blank. And also arguments against the (disproven) claim that they had dummy cells that weighed the same as the real ones for ballast.

 

[JeffK]

Those are spacers, not dummy cells. Dummy cells have the tab just like real cells

To many, dummy cells and spacers are synonymous even if they aren't exactly the same. In sum, there are places with no cells instead of simply not putting in a module.

 

[stopcrazypp]

To many, dummy cells and spacers are synonymous even if they aren't exactly the same. In sum, there are places with no cells instead of simply not putting in a module.

Not really synonymous (but close I guess). In that thread, someone brought up that "dummy cell" to them meant the cell weighed the same as a real one, that's why the terminology switched to "spacer".

I remember a theory that was floated around that Tesla used dummy cells that weighed the same as real ones so they keep module weight the same and saved on crash testing/suspension tuning.

 

[Reciprocity]

You can't simply ask for higher margins with the same selling prices when the cost of the parts is the same --- simply because people want the car.

Higher margins = cheaper costs or higher selling price.

People aren't just going to shove money in your face because there is a desire for a product.

Tell Apple they can't charge more. Tesla is trying to save the world but they are not a charity. They can and will charge what the market will bear, period. As a public company they have a fiduciary duty to do so.

 

[JeffK]

Tell Apple they can't charge more. Tesla is trying to save the world but they are not a charity. They can and will charge what the market will bear, period. As a public company they have a fiduciary duty to do so.

But you see the goal for the company is to accelerate the world to sustainable transport and energy. It's also the goal of the company to make an affordable, long range, EV. It's pretty difficult if you end up pricing your "affordable mass market" car out of the market it's targeting.

This is also why Elon mentioned that S/X will have the latest technology and things they haven't yet figured out how to mass produce so that it's affordable.

 

[Cloxxki]

Model 3 and Model S are different cars, sure. But that doesn't make the process of building them different. How many more parts should S have to go about its business? How much more aluminium and steel to make up the chassis? Seats? Wheels? The variances are minimal.
With Model S having such a ginormous marginal profit, already before the 2170 cells which are bound to cut a huge chunk alone, the door is open for external competition. The time where other brands weren't interested to make a premium BEV for the masses (2012-?) is long gone. A $70K or so Model S will be a hard sell when Volkswagen has an electric Passat, Polestar a Volvo placeholder, etc, etc, at a lower price point.
Why are there counterfeit handbags on the market? The originals are so highly priced, it becomes worth faking/competing. Even when it's clearly an inferior product, a lower price does wonders.

Back to topic. What might the practical advance be to put the Model 3 (small?) rear motor inside the wheel base, how will it affect trunk space? Will the trunk go really low?
Model 3 lacks the stacked modules in the front. What's do with that space, of the frunk is so much smaller?

The ongoing 18650 ncessarily contract overlapping Model 3 production, may have influenced them to make the Model 3 pack on the small side. Model S, if the 2170 cells are so awesome, should already pack 125kWh the moment it's converted. They could eek out 100kWh a bit on the tardy side in 18650 product life, to keep Model 3 reasonably big and not threatening Model S. If not for sale, then for image.

 

[22522]

They can and will charge what the market will bear, period. As a public company they have a fiduciary duty to do so.

The behavior is different depending on the time scale. They run on goodwill.

For example, Ford's growth with the model T was not fueled by charging what the market would bare...

 

[Garlan Garner]

Tell Apple they can't charge more. Tesla is trying to save the world but they are not a charity. They can and will charge what the market will bear, period. As a public company they have a fiduciary duty to do so.

I disagree.

Tesla spelled out its goals over 11 years ago and they are following them to the letter. Tesla needed money to get to this point. No other CEO put up his own millions on a car like the roadster to get the job done. No other CEO is more dedicated to more than just money than Elon. Tesla ( because of Elon ) is a different type of company. As corny as it may sound....this guy is indeed trying to rid the planet of pollution and toxic airborne stuff in the air. Its not all about the money.

Tesla has already informed the public of its profit margins and such and they are right on target. That's why its stock price is where it is. I have always said that when your competitor gets up and starts fighting you - and you haven't instigated anything - you have something going for yourself.

Elon isn't trying to demean GM or Toyota or Buick or any ICE car manufacturer. They are just building an alternative without any profit to date and their competitors are standing up and taking notice. Let your competition be your guide Tesla You are doing something and doing it well.

As you know that to date: Its not about profit because Tesla hasn't made any. Loss after loss each quarter and the competition is still scared?

I'll let you answer that question. What are they scared of? Profits? nope - non existent.

What are the investors running towards ( with no profits ). Answer: Solid business plan with a solid projected future.

Its not ALL about the money.

 

[Reciprocity]

But you see the goal for the company is to accelerate the world to sustainable transport and energy. It's also the goal of the company to make an affordable, long range, EV. It's pretty difficult if you end up pricing your "affordable mass market" car out of the market it's targeting.

This is also why Elon mentioned that S/X will have the latest technology and things they haven't yet figured out how to mass produce so that it's affordable.

You can't accelerate *sugar* if you sell stuff on thin margins. You accelerate the goals by fully capitalizing on the market and reinvest profits into growth. You needed 10-20 gigafactories to even start to make a dent. No one is going to leave Tesla 50-100B. They need profits to fuel that growth. Your plan has them growing much much slower then my plan. And why, so you can sell cheap cars to the same number of people who would buy expensive cars. Elon is a liberal not a communist.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Model 3 and Model S are different cars, sure. But that doesn't make the process of building them different. How many more parts should S have to go about its business? How much more aluminium and steel to make up the chassis? Seats? Wheels? The variances are minimal.
With Model S having such a ginormous marginal profit, already before the 2170 cells which are bound to cut a huge chunk alone, the door is open for external competition. The time where other brands weren't interested to make a premium BEV for the masses (2012-?) is long gone. A $70K or so Model S will be a hard sell when Volkswagen has an electric Passat, Polestar a Volvo placeholder, etc, etc, at a lower price point.
Why are there counterfeit handbags on the market? The originals are so highly priced, it becomes worth faking/competing. Even when it's clearly an inferior product, a lower price does wonders.

Back to topic. What might the practical advance be to put the Model 3 (small?) rear motor inside the wheel base, how will it affect trunk space? Will the trunk go really low?
Model 3 lacks the stacked modules in the front. What's do with that space, of the frunk is so much smaller?

The ongoing 18650 ncessarily contract overlapping Model 3 production, may have influenced them to make the Model 3 pack on the small side. Model S, if the 2170 cells are so awesome, should already pack 125kWh the moment it's converted. They could eek out 100kWh a bit on the tardy side in 18650 product life, to keep Model 3 reasonably big and not threatening Model S. If not for sale, then for image.

Who's talking about building cars. Who cares about that. You haven't seen the Model 3 yet.

You keep using words and phrases like: Might be....or may be.....or could be.....and things of that nature while presenting conclusions as though they are fact.

The Model 3 will not threaten the Model S in any way.

 

[Garlan Garner]

You can't accelerate *sugar* if you sell stuff on thin margins. You accelerate the goals by fully capitalizing on the market and reinvest profits into growth. You needed 10-20 gigafactories to even start to make a dent. No one is going to leave Tesla 50-100B. They need profits to fuel that growth. Your plan has them growing much much slower then my plan. And why, so you can sell cheap cars to the same number of people who would buy expensive cars. Elon is a liberal not a communist.

Its not all about the margins and money .....otherwise the stock price wouldn't be where it is....with a company that has made no profits.

 

[Reciprocity]

I disagree.

Tesla spelled out its goals over 11 years ago and they are following them to the letter. Tesla needed money to get to this point. No other CEO put up his own millions on a car like the roadster to get the job done. No other CEO is more dedicated to more than just money than Elon. Tesla ( because of Elon ) is a different type of company. As corny as it may sound....this guy is indeed trying to rid the planet of pollution and toxic airborne stuff in the air. Its not all about the money.

Tesla has already informed the public of its profit margins and such and they are right on target. That's why its stock price is where it is. I have always said that when your competitor gets up and starts fighting you - and you haven't instigated anything - you have something going for yourself.

Elon isn't trying to demean GM or Toyota or Buick or any ICE car manufacturer. They are just building an alternative without any profit to date and their competitors are standing up and taking notice. Let your competition be your guide Tesla You are doing something and doing it well.

As you know that to date: Its not about profit because Tesla hasn't made any. Loss after loss each quarter and the competition is still scared?

I'll let you answer that question. What are they scared of? Profits? nope - non existent.

What are the investors running towards ( with no profits ). Answer: Solid business plan with a solid projected future.

Its not ALL about the money.

Its not ALL about the [strike]money[/strike] funding.

It is all about the funding of future development. Period. Not a charity. If you have 500,000 cars to sell and 600,000 people who want them desperately, you sell the high margin ones first then lower the price as your costs go down due to the maturing product cycle.

 

[Reciprocity]

Its not all about the margins and money .....otherwise the stock price wouldn't be where it is....with a company that has made no profits.

The stock is where it is because the market knows I'm right. Markets like growth and profit, not just growth.

 

[Garlan Garner]

But you see the goal for the company is to accelerate the world to sustainable transport and energy. It's also the goal of the company to make an affordable, long range, EV. It's pretty difficult if you end up pricing your "affordable mass market" car out of the market it's targeting.

This is also why Elon mentioned that S/X will have the latest technology and things they haven't yet figured out how to mass produce so that it's affordable.

Absolutely.

I'm buying a Tesla because it contributes to sustainable clean transport. Its going to be more expensive than a Camry or an Accord, however I believe in the cause. That's more valuable to me than most other things related to an automobile. I will invest in the cause as a shareholder.

Its not all about margins and money.

 

[Garlan Garner]

The stock is where it is because the market knows I'm right. Markets like growth and profit, not just growth.

But they haven't made any profit. They have grown a ton....with NO PROFIT. Tesla isn't turning profits. That's what is so amazing about this.

Show me one single quarter of profits.

BTW...I'm not sure that the market is checking with you on the stock price. lol