Is Musk lying on maximum battery capacity?

[JeffK]

July 28, 2017 actually will be the first car, right?

No, first car was already made. July 28th is the final reveal, first deliveries.

 

[Brando]

This is because they kept breaking... They simply took out the second gear and thus limited top speed. It had nothing to do with the inverter. Going to a single speed gearbox was never the desired outcome. It was just simpler then having it break.

Rimac found a way of doing this correctly. I'd imagine the next roadster will too.

No, they didn't remove the 2nd gear to prevent break downs. Suggest you listen to one of the founders.

And learn the real reasons and the developments why Tesla only uses one gear (up to 155 mph, right?)

 

[Model 3]

What they essentially need is a new platform for the S and X, that will share parts with the 3 platform.

I do agree that they at one time will need to create a new platform for the S and X, but when they do, they will be better of basing it on the Y platform. Making it cheaper and easier to build and to automate the building of the cars.

Yes, but I think we are presuming that was a 75 kWh model so we might be looking at 0.9C charge rates for the 2170 cells. If that turns out to be true then the base model of about 55 kWh might be limited to something around 50 kW peak charging.

At one time in the early life of Model S it was some question if Tesla would open it supercharging network for cars from other manufacturers. The answer for basically an "Yes", but among other things he said something like the following (Sorry, do not remember the exact quote) "... but we will not let any car access that cant charge at the same rate as our current cars." At that time I think 90kW was the limit for Model S.

So no, I do not think Tesla will allow a Model 3 access if it can't charge any faster then 50kW at peak charging.

 

[Parzival]

Has anyone done the math when it's 94 degrees out and air conditioner is cranking like today or when it's 15 or 20 degrees like we sometimes gets in NJ and heater is on full blast. I have not seen anything written about this

It was 100 degrees in the shade today in Houston, and my Volt was drawing about 2kW to cool the car down, but settled down to .5kW (the lowest consumption it can indicate) in a relatively short time. I haven't found A/C use to have a significant impact on range even with the Volt's minuscule battery. Heat, on the other hand... Using the heater will use a lot more power to warm up the vehicle.

 

[JeffK]

No, they didn't remove the 2nd gear to prevent break downs. Suggest you listen to one of the founders.

And learn the real reasons and the developments why Tesla only uses one gear (up to 155 mph, right?)

A great tip is to actually watch what you link to

They kept failing. The inverter thing was a happy coincidence not the underlying cause of the switch.

 

[stopcrazypp]

The base model still has a limited range compared to typical ICEs. Profitability is still achieved at the same or even slightly increased margins... 30% say or even 40% but why must it be several hundred percent like it is now with Model S?

I would say the base model has *enough* range to sell out all of the production Tesla can possibly make. That's all that really matters. Anything extra would be based on what competitors might do (if a competitor comes out with a entry level premium EV with 300 miles of range for ~$35k for example).

As for looking at the margins on individual options, I don't think that is going to be very instructive. They have a goal of 25% gross margin overall for the Model 3 line and they will need all the help they can get. So pricing some options at very high margins certainly should be on the table. Even the S have not topped 30% gross margin.

 

[JeffK]

Even the S have not topped 30% gross margin.

S/X were 31% last year although I don't know the individual break down.

 

[Brando]

The base model still has a limited range compared to typical ICEs. Profitability is still achieved at the same or even slightly increased margins... 30% say or even 40% but why must it be several hundred percent like it is now with Model S?

Model S margins have been, as I recall, between about 20-30%. You can read the SEC filings to see what the margins are. several hundred percent is just plain WRONG See page 45
Tesla - Annual Report

Gross margin total automotive (Model S first full year production 2013, not shown here)
2016 23.4%
2015 22.9%
2014 27.6%

As a side note seems to me finding original documents is always a good place to start research. Not to imply original documents are always true (i.e. never mislead) but still a good starting point. When you make claims, always good to show your sources when practical.

Learning to read financials is well worth the time in today's corporatized world. Does take some practise and searching for meanings of the words such as margin vs profit. Wikipedia often a great first start for introduction. Researching on the internet is also a valuable skill to refine. As the world is changing so fast, we all often have misconceptions that were true mere years/months ago.

Here is where you can find all of the SEC filings.
http://ir.tesla.com/sec.cfm?view=all

 

[SageBrush]

I do agree that they at one time will need to create a new platform for the S and X, but when they do, they will be better of basing it on the Y platform. Making it cheaper and easier to build and to automate the building of the cars.



At one time in the early life of Model S it was some question if Tesla would open it supercharging network for cars from other manufacturers. The answer for basically an "Yes", but among other things he said something like the following (Sorry, do not remember the exact quote) "... but we will not let any car access that cant charge at the same rate as our current cars." At that time I think 90kW was the limit for Model S.

So no, I do not think Tesla will allow a Model 3 access if it can't charge any faster then 50kW at peak charging.

Very interesting, thanks!

Now I'm going to have to walk around with my fingers crossed for 8 days

 

[JeffK]

Model S margins have been, as I recall, between about 20-30%. You can read the SEC filings to see what the margins are. several hundred percent is just plain WRONG See page 45

Not for the car... for the battery upgrade. We know the cost is lower than $190 / kWh at the pack level. Find me a battery upgrade that isn't at least twice that hence several hundred percent higher than cost. (margins are always less than one)

example $190 cost sold at $600 = 68.3 percent margins and the price is 316% higher than cost

 

[JeffK]

Gross margin total automotive (Model S first full year production 2013, not shown here)
2016 23.4%
2015 22.9%
2014 27.6%

You are looking at totals which include leasing and service... just automotive sales in 2016 was
$5,589,007 / $4,268,087 - 1 = 30.94%

Learning to read financials is well worth the time in today's corporatized world.

It sure is!

 

[Brando]

This is because they kept breaking... They simply took out the second gear and thus limited top speed. It had nothing to do with the inverter. Going to a single speed gearbox was never the desired outcome. It was just simpler then having it break.

Rimac found a way of doing this correctly. I'd imagine the next roadster will too.

Model S/X don't break transmissions, so I guess they "do it correctly". I thought Remac was also single speed, I'll have to go double check, but then to get over 200mph ... what a great company and what a great story the founding of Rimac. Performance kings for now, IMHO. Perhaps they can become the Bosch of electric cars in EU? Interesting to see the balance between design and manufacturing at Rimac.

You may find this youtube clip interesting - Remac and Koenigsegg

Technical details of Tesla founding, Marc

 

[JeffK]

Model S/X don't break transmissions, so I guess they "do it correctly". I thought Remac was also single speed,

S/X are single speed and rimac has a two speed gearbox in the back. It's pretty cool.
http://jalopnik.com/the-fascinating-tech-behind-rimacs-two-220-mph-all-elec-1762444456

 

[SageBrush]

Not for the car... for the battery upgrade. We know the cost is lower than $190 / kWh at the pack level. Find me a battery upgrade that isn't at least twice that hence several hundred percent higher than cost. (margins are always less than one)

example $190 cost sold at $600 = 68.3 percent margins and the price is 316% higher than cost

Yep
Then if Elon sets battery upgrade prices with a 50 - 75% margin and Tesla's cost is $150 per kWh at the pack, then
retail price is $300 - $600 a kWh

And for the rest of us ... a calculator

 

[Brando]

Not for the car... for the battery upgrade. We know the cost is lower than $190 / kWh at the pack level. Find me a battery upgrade that isn't at least twice that hence several hundred percent higher than cost. (margins are always less than one)

example $190 cost sold at $600 = 68.3 percent margins and the price is 316% higher than cost

You are confusing the cost of one component - the battery cells - with the cost of the battery pack.
Google search for tesla battery pack and look for "tear downs" or something similar to see how complex these battery packs actually are. cooling, battery management, packaging etc.

 

[JeffK]

You are confusing the cost of one component - the battery cells - with the cost of the battery pack.

No the $190 quote was at the pack level by the VP of investor relations.
Tesla confirms base Model 3 will have less than 60 kWh battery pack option, cost is below $190/kWh and falling

All the cooling and the chassis are included.

Elon mentioned in 2014 and again in July 2016 that he expects Tesla to get to under $100 per kWh at the pack level by the end of the decade.

 

[Brando]

No the $190 quote was at the pack level by the VP of investor relations.
Tesla confirms base Model 3 will have less than 60 kWh battery pack option, cost is below $190/kWh and falling

All the cooling and the chassis are included.

Good to see. I'm more conservative and seldom trust Wall St. analysts (unless of course they write what I like to think is true. ;-) ) hope you find time to watch the youtube clips, you will enjoy. Battery costs are coming down so fast. Have you listened to Tony Seba talk about disruption? RethinkX
thanks.

 

[KarenRei]

Honestly, as a smaller vehicle with a smaller pack vs. S (lighter, even with more use of steel), with a lower cross section and lower Cd, I'd be surprised if the pack was even that close to 60 kWh and the range was still 215mi. If the range is 215 miles, I'd expect the pack to be around 50kWh. If the pack is nearly 60kWh, I'd expect around 260mi range.

The tires even look to be lower rolling resistance than the S. This thing is going to sip energy.

Upside: it'll charge faster from weaker power sources; you charge at more "miles per hour" the less energy the vehicle wastes per mile. You could probably charge it at about 7-8 "miles per hour" on a normal 120V 15A US outlet.

Downside: its range will fluctuate more with conditions. E.g. crosswinds or accumulated snow/ice on the vehicle, things that increase the drag coefficient, will hurt it more.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Yes, cheaper than going month-to-month. It's 0.075 per kWh, ending up with an average of 0.115 once the other fees are factored in. I didn't go for the cheapest rate around as I've opted for a 100% wind plan to support the expansion of green energy.



Yes, but living in the Houston metro which means my biggest electrical expense is AC during the day. When I worked at an office I'd kick the AC up during the day, but now that I work from home it needs to be comfortable enough for me to work so opting for free nights but more expensive power during the day may not be a good idea (especially since working from home means I don't put as many miles on the car as I used to). Additionally, this is my desk, so I keep the AC turned down a little lower than I used to:
View attachment 236672

Hmmm.... that's strange. You should get solar if you can afford it.

Check out my panels below. I installed it myself.

 

[SageBrush]

Downside: its range will fluctuate more with conditions. E.g. crosswinds or accumulated snow/ice on the vehicle, things that increase the drag coefficient, will hurt it more.

Yep, and kilometers of spilled ink will be spilled in poorly spelled and constructed angst by the ignoranti.

The threads will start in October. Lets hope the Model 3 roll-out is slow enough to get through one winter.