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Is Musk lying on maximum battery capacity?
- Thread starter Nuclear Fusion
- Start date
Garlan Garner
Banned
Why are we still comparing the S to the Model 3? Even with prices. The S and the 3 have different cells and battery packs.
Garlan Garner
Banned
There are only 12 days left. There are no trophy's for getting the price right.
Lets see....who was the guy.....who got it right......in the Model S forum before the Model S came out?
Lets see...... Oh that's right...it was.... "who cares"?
I'm ready to bet big bucks (like $5) to say it's less than $10k. We have a bet? Loser paypals $5 to the wiener. So $9999 or less I win, $10k+ you win.
@tpatana, I will start a predictions competition and it will include a question about Model 3 battery upgrade cost. I will post a link here when it's ready. If you want to beat me, you can participate in that. The idea of this competition is to have a score chart of how good people are at predictions.
Garlan Garner
Banned
What will someone win?
An elevated sense of pride? There's almost no room left in this forum.
Garlan Garner
Banned
I don't think there will be a battery upgrade cost on the Model 3.
I believe there will be versions of the car that will come with different size batteries as well as options.
I doubt that they will software limit the battery in the Model 3. The battery is the single most expensive part in there and the easiest way to cut costs. Second screen is too expensive, but unusable 15kWh aren't? I don't think so.
Maybe you could exchange the battery at a service center, but that will be expensive and it will depend on how long you used your battery before.
You are right. I phrased that poorly. I was talking about selecting the larger battery instead of the smaller battery in the design studio. @tpatana thinks the price difference between the Model 3 75 and Model 3 55 will be less than $10,000. I think it will be at least $10,000. That would be at least $500 per kWh.
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JeffK
Well-Known Member
The only logical reason to price it that way for Model 3 would be greed as it exceeds gross margins. The goal is to make this car affordable to the masses. A range near 300 mi will be highly desirable. They can either compete now, or drop the price significantly in two years as there will be competition and owners will be angry. They can still make their desired profit margins at $200 / kWh unless they are losing their butts on the car itself which is doubtful.
With a cost for Tesla of $120/kWh (I do expect it to be a bit under, just being somewhat conservative here) the cost for a 20kWh difference would be $2400. If the difference is just 15kWh the cost would be $1800. But yes, this is an option with high profits, so the price difference on the battery expansion alone would be in the area of $5,000 to $7.500. And the later is really close to what Elon expect the average selling price wold be.
JeffK
Well-Known Member
Assuming the AWD is currently a very popular option you'd have to factor that into the $42K price as well.
Garlan Garner
Banned
Correct.
How are you going to price battery upgrades with other options tagging along with price increases?
@Model 3, you are right. I forgot to add options. I included only the starting prices for each trim level. That means the average selling price should be around $49,000-$50,000 which makes Elon's $42,000 estimate even more wrong. By the way, I used survey data in my calculations.
JeffK
Well-Known Member
So you're modeling on what people's opinions who are familiar with Tesla's Model S/X pricing to estimate Model 3 pricing which targets a different market instead of data reported by Tesla on costs, estimated profit margins, and general pricing of 2020 competitors?
I think Tesla will be criticized if they price their "more affordable" EV too high. I know they probably won't, but I'd wish they'd release pricing on the 28th.
$42,000 is a good guess for the average selling price of the 55 kWh versions (Model 3 55 and Model 3 55D).
Model 3 55 = $35,000
Dual motors = $4,000 (80% of Model S price)
Autopilot = $4,000 (80% of Model S price)
According to model3tracker.info 66.9% want AWD and 78.9% want autopilot. Therefore dual motors would add 4,000*0.669= $2,676 to the average and Autopilot would add 4,000*0.789= $3,156.
So with just autopilot and dual motors, the 55 kWh average selling price would be 35,000 + 2,676 +3,156 = $40,832. Of course, there will be other options like glass roof, metallic paint, and larger wheels. Elon's $42,000 guess looks pretty good for the 55 kWh versions. I'm pretty sure that's what he meant.
Model 3 55 = $35,000
Dual motors = $4,000 (80% of Model S price)
Autopilot = $4,000 (80% of Model S price)
According to model3tracker.info 66.9% want AWD and 78.9% want autopilot. Therefore dual motors would add 4,000*0.669= $2,676 to the average and Autopilot would add 4,000*0.789= $3,156.
So with just autopilot and dual motors, the 55 kWh average selling price would be 35,000 + 2,676 +3,156 = $40,832. Of course, there will be other options like glass roof, metallic paint, and larger wheels. Elon's $42,000 guess looks pretty good for the 55 kWh versions. I'm pretty sure that's what he meant.
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SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
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