Is nobody else excited?...

[flamingoezz]

about the investor Q&A today? I thought the internet would be abuzz.

maybe we get an update on production estimates, total reservations or the 3rd reveal date..

 

[wilhelmspencer]

about the investor Q&A today? I thought the internet would be abuzz.

maybe we get an update on production estimates, total reservations or the 3rd reveal date..

I am excited...like you said I am also surprised there isn't more buzz...even the tesla subreddit is slow on the topic.

 

[jsrawa]

I've been anticipating it because it's likely the only possible source for info until the next reveal. I came here a couple times over the past few days and was surprised there was almost no discussion about it at all.

I'll be tuning in...

 

[electracity]

I predict model 3 news will be positive and also meaningless.

I also predict Musk will be broadcasting live from the hole in the ground at SpaceX.

 

[Alketi]

I can't wait. Hoping for some new information, even if only said in passing.

 

[Model 3]

maybe we get an update on production estimates

My guess is that the combined product estimate would be around 175k cars for this year. 100-115k Gen-II (S+X) and 60-75k Gen-III (Model 3). But I hope it will be higher. And I estimate that they will think that this is an underestimate, but will actually end up really close to that estimate

 

[Model 3]

Did not take long - now it is out:
http://ir.tesla.com/eventdetail.cfm?EventID=179732

We are excited about 2017, as we expect to see significant advances across our transport, energy generation and storage product lines. Most notably, the Model 3 and solar roof launches are on track for the second half of the year. However, since even a couple-week shift in timing could have a meaningful impact on total deliveries and installs, we are focusing our guidance on the first half of the year.

We expect to deliver 47,000 to 50,000 Model S and Model X vehicles
combined in the first half of 2017, representing vehicle delivery growth of 61% to 71% compared with the same period last year. In addition, both GAAP and non-GAAP automotive gross margin should recover in Q1 to Q3 2016 levels and then continue to expand in Q2 2017.

No estimate with the Model 3 numbers
But the S+X estimate for the first half is not far from my prediction for 2 half years.

 

[Bokonon]

New thread with a nice bullet-point summary of Model 3-related items in the report is starting up here:
Summary of Model 3 Related Info From Shareholder Letter

 

[EVie'sDad]

Hopefully this will ramp up the enthusiasm.

Tesla Model 3 Progress, Gigafactories 1–5, Tesla Insurance … (Tesla 4th Quarter & 2016 Financials Call & Report)

"In a unique insight into Tesla communications with partners, Elon shared the volume guidance it is providing to parts suppliers in terms of vehicle production per week at: 1,000/week in July, 2,000/week in August, and 4,000 per week in September."

If you do the math, that 4,000 estimated in July, then 8,000 in August, and followed by 16,000 in September, add that up and you have 28,000 estimated production by the end of Sept 2017!

 

[Model 3]

If you do the math, that 4,000 estimated in July, then 8,000 in August, and followed by 16,000 in September, add that up and you have 28,000 estimated production by the end of Sept 2017!

I did some math on this.... They also said that they expected to reach 5,000/week sometime in Q4.

So, not counting any work-free days in this period, and guessing at 4,500/week in average in Q4 I get 82,000 Model 3 produced in 2017.
A more sober estimate is that they only produce 75% of this, and then it gets to 61,500.

So it is reasonable to think they will produce in the ballpark of 60-80,000 cars this year.

My guess is that the combined product estimate would be around 175k cars for this year. 100-115k Gen-II (S+X) and 60-75k Gen-III (Model 3).

So I still stand behind my earlier guess

 

[Garlan Garner]

60K? I might get mine this year. I stood in line in Chicago on the 31st. #2 in line.

What do you guys think?

 

[dsvick]

60K? I might get mine this year. I stood in line in Chicago on the 31st. #2 in line.

What do you guys think?

I think you have a pretty good shot at it. Depending on how they prioritize things I think everyone, in the US, that stood in line has a decent shot at it.

 

[gregincal]

On the other hand, I didn't stand in line but ordered online before the announcement, but I'm an existing owner in California, so I'm fairly hopeful.

 

[montreid]

On the other hand, I didn't stand in line but ordered online before the announcement, but I'm an existing owner in California, so I'm fairly hopeful.

I believe you're still in front queue even if didn't stand in line. He never differentiated Day 1in-line people west coasters (myself there) ahead of online ordering on Day1. In fact, day 1 midwest folk will be out in the cold for awhile it seems