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Is now REALLY a good time to buy a new Tesla? [Jan 2023 / April 2023]

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Perhaps, this makes you to believe that I have managed to save nearly $20k, but this is not true. Shortly after the order was placed in August 2022, I went to Carmax and got $40,000 for trading in my 2018 M3LR. I did not take the offer. We all know this is a big mistake by now. The next time I got the car appraised by Carmax in early December, the offer was down to $27,000, in a little over 3 months. Just when you think it cannot go lower, I was given only $22,000 yesterday from Carmax, another $5,000 decrease in a month. You think this is the end of story? No, today, Tesla gave me a trade in estimate for only $14,000!
OP - the offer you received is too low compared to national averages. Either this is an extreme outlier or something is wrong with the car.

Any offer you receive from the places you cited is based on national used car price averages. Before buying a Tesla, I tracked prices on all models for about 9 months. This site is a good one to start with, it's a good benchmark for the state of the market:


Nationwide, the current average dealer price for a 2018 M3LR is around $35,000. The average number of miles is around 50k, When trading in, you should expect to receive around 80% of the dealer price, subject to adjustments around condition, mileage, and other factors related to the quality of the vehicle. Anything less than that and you need to shop around the trade in.

Another factor affecting price in inventory, if dealers are having trouble moving cars, they will offer you less for your trade in. There are 51 listings on iseecars and 800 on Autotrader (which overlap, iseecars is a subset of what you would see on autotrader.) That is a low inventory, I've seen as many as 2,800 on a M3LR within the last 6 months. The low inventory suggests this is a good time to be selling used Teslas.

Carmax / Carvana / other nationwide dealers offer convenience. They do NOT always provide the best offer on a used car. To maximize the price you get for your trade in, you should get estimates from local dealerships. This can often be done on their website, but you can also just call them and ask for a ballpark over the phone. They have access to the same data that's available on iseecars and will likely use a similar calculus to what I described.

Alternatively, you should consider a private listing. One thing to understand, the tax laws in your area may benefit dealerships. Where I live, there's a flat tax on new car sales. There's also a dealership exception, where a buyer is only taxed on the difference between the price of the new car minus the trade in. This can work for you, the strategy seems to be listing the car for 90% of the average price charged by local dealers. You come out ahead compared to a trade in, the buyer comes out ahead based on final price. While I haven't done this, I've heard it's even possible to finance a private sale so long as the car has passed a recent inspection. The paperwork most banks need - a Motor Vehicle Purchase Agreement - is available as a template online.

One other thing to remember, with a private listing, is that exposure matters. The best places to list are autotrader.com and ebay motors. Part of the reason for the later is the consumer protections it offers buyers, it's similar to what they offer on other purchases from the site. I was pricing a Challenger through these sites in October and saw listings throughout the US and Canada.

While I did reserve a MYLR last Friday, I did seriously consider a used vehicle instead. One piece of advice I've received from multiple dealers, Teslas have so little going on with them mechanically that miles don't matter. If someone is trying to argue you down based on miles, I would resist that and point out the vehicle only has 16 moving parts. That seems to be a proven sales tactic.

Good luck.
 
Carmax / Carvana / other nationwide dealers offer convenience. They do NOT always provide the best offer on a used car.
Correction .... they NEVER give best offer. They want to mark up then sell to a private party. Like you say, you pay for the convenience of being ripped off. Best offer is always selling direct to customer, cut out the carvana middle man. Tesla has cut out the stealership middleman.
 
In my situation, YES! Up until this price cut, I was not even considering buying a Model Y. I have a brother-in-law who has one. I had briefly driven one that my son rented when he came to visit. However, at close to $70,000 and no tax credit, there was no way I could consider a Tesla Model Y.

I reserved a VW ID.4 Pro S Plus AWD last August. MSRP with delivery: $55,820 before the tax credit. Effective 1/4/2023, VW increased the price. The MSRP became: $57,320. Then last Friday, 1/13/2023, I discovered the Tesla price reduction and that some Model Y trims qualified for the EV tax credit. MSRP for my blue MY build: $53,990 + $1,390 delivery + $250 order fee = $55,630. Which is less than my not yet built VW. Also, at this price the MY qualifies for the tax credit until March.

I checked with my wife and placed the order. We test drove a Model Y Tuesday to confirm the ride and seat comfort. We pick up our MY Saturday, 1/21/2023, just 8 days after ordering.

There have been some comments as to whether to trade or sell privately the car to be replaced. In Florida, the value of the trade is deducted from the amount that is subject to sales tax.
 
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Correction .... they NEVER give best offer. They want to mark up then sell to a private party. Like you say, you pay for the convenience of being ripped off. Best offer is always selling direct to customer, cut out the carvana middle man. Tesla has cut out the stealership middleman.
Tesla is worse in some sense. They lowered the trade-in offer by about $10k over a month (and about $8k lower than a carmax offer), citing scratches and dings on a rear door. But these were already reported in the last estimate.
 
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Whether it's a good time to buy a Tesla is a different decision from whether it's a good time to sell a Tesla. The value of a used Tesla is what it is - whether you decide to buy a new Tesla doesn't change the value of the used Tesla. Buying a new Tesla to replace an existing Tesla isn't "putting more money into it", which is only true if you are putting more money towards improving something you are keeping.

IMO, it's a great time to buy a new Tesla.
 
Many of you are excited about the recent price cut on Tesla models and are ready to bite the bait. And those who had purchased their cars last year were whining about the massive price reduction. But, as the title says, is now really a good time to buy a new Tesla?

Here is my story for you to think about. I placed an order for a white 7-seater MYLR in August 2022 and the price was $70,990. Now, the price lowers to $58,990 after the price cut. Considering the “potential” tax credit (not sure if we will qualify given the income limit), my savings from waiting till now is $19,750 (I was contacted by Tesla for delivery in November and December, but I insisted to not remove the hold).

Perhaps, this makes you to believe that I have managed to save nearly $20k, but this is not true. Shortly after the order was placed in August 2022, I went to Carmax and got $40,000 for trading in my 2018 M3LR. I did not take the offer. We all know this is a big mistake by now. The next time I got the car appraised by Carmax in early December, the offer was down to $27,000, in a little over 3 months. Just when you think it cannot go lower, I was given only $22,000 yesterday from Carmax, another $5,000 decrease in a month. You think this is the end of story? No, today, Tesla gave me a trade in estimate for only $14,000!

Overall, my M3LR has lost $18,000 by Carmax estimate and $26,000 by Tesla’s own estimate over 5 months! I am sure those with newer models will suffer larger losses in their trade in values. Considering the price cut, I am saving only ~$2,000 compared to last August and I will need to wait till next year to figure out if I will be able to get the tax credit. If I were to go with Tesla trade in, I am effectively losing $6,000 due to the ridiculous decline in the trade in values.

I was assigned an VIN two days ago and was given till tomorrow to schedule delivery. I am thinking of canceling the order. Based on the Tesla new car inventory chart, this massive cut in new car price has not driven the inventory down much. I am predicting an end of quarter sale push in March or another round of price cut in a couple of months. What your choice will be if you were in my shoes?

And if I schedule a delivery, can I cancel it later (when it approaches the delivery date) with no further obligation other than losing the $250 order fee? I have not yet decline an VIN, can I still decline the VIN and get kicked back to the line after I schedule delivery?

This is exciting as I'm awaiting some real price drops to try and pick up a used MYP.

Personally, I was never impressed with the Tesla product for the money and as such have had a Lyriq deposit.

But now I think a mid $40s '22 MYP is in the cards purchased slightly used, and at that price point I'm all over the used Tesla (my wife will simply not allow me to purchase a new Tesla due to the Musk connection at any price, but used is allowable).
 
OP -

Nationwide, the current average dealer price for a 2018 M3LR is around $35,000. The average number of miles is around 50k, When trading in, you should expect to receive around 80% of the dealer price, subject to adjustments around condition, mileage, and other factors related to the quality of the vehicle. Anything less than that and you need to shop around the trade in.

$35K for a 5 year old car that can be purchased new in a 2023 with warranty for what, $38K brand new after IRS, is absolutely absurd.

The IRS allows a dealer to resale a used EV for no more than $25K and the buyer to receive $4K back on their taxes.

Trade in value for any EV out of warranty is going to be around $18-20K so that the dealer can sell them for $25K and the client can get the rebate. The rebate is only available through dealers btw, no private sells.

I'll also add that ime, Carmax (I've sold them 4 cars) pretty much offers a private retail price for a trade-in number. They just sell them for way over dealer retail.
 
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$35K for a 5 year old car that can be purchased new in a 2023 with warranty for what, $38K brand new after IRS, is absolutely absurd.

The IRS allows a dealer to resale a used EV for no more than $25K and the buyer to receive $4K back on their taxes.

Trade in value for any EV out of warranty is going to be around $18-20K so that the dealer can sell them for $25K and the client can get the rebate. The rebate is only available through dealers btw, no private sells.

I'll also add that ime, Carmax (I've sold them 4 cars) pretty much offers a private retail price for a trade-in number. They just sell them for way over dealer retail.
You must really love Carmax. Good for you!

Your analysis ignores a few items that are important to consider.

- The top line cost of a Model 3 is $43k. Not everyone can float that for a year waiting for a tax credit.

- The average rate for financing right now is 10%. Not everyone can afford to finance at that rate.

- Not everyone qualifies for credit. Could be for all sorts of reasons, some of which are non-financial.

- $35k is $8k less than a new Tesla. For some people, another $500 matters.

Market data suggests people are actually paying more than indicated in my previous message. Here's a link to nationwide listings on iSeeCars.com. Notice the statistics below the listings that include average current price, average savings, info about relationship between mileage and trim, and other stats.

 
$35K for a 5 year old car that can be purchased new in a 2023 with warranty for what, $38K brand new after IRS, is absolutely absurd.

The IRS allows a dealer to resale a used EV for no more than $25K and the buyer to receive $4K back on their taxes.

Trade in value for any EV out of warranty is going to be around $18-20K so that the dealer can sell them for $25K and the client can get the rebate. The rebate is only available through dealers btw, no private sells.

I'll also add that ime, Carmax (I've sold them 4 cars) pretty much offers a private retail price for a trade-in number. They just sell them for way over dealer retail.

I was going to sell our Subaru private party but checked Carmax on a whim after reading your comment above. They gave me an instant buy price $3k above the competitors...in line with private party value. I'm going to sell to them now!
 
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You must really love Carmax. Good for you!

Your analysis ignores a few items that are important to consider.

- The top line cost of a Model 3 is $43k. Not everyone can float that for a year waiting for a tax credit.

- The average rate for financing right now is 10%. Not everyone can afford to finance at that rate.

- Not everyone qualifies for credit. Could be for all sorts of reasons, some of which are non-financial.

- $35k is $8k less than a new Tesla. For some people, another $500 matters.

Market data suggests people are actually paying more than indicated in my previous message. Here's a link to nationwide listings on iSeeCars.com. Notice the statistics below the listings that include average current price, average savings, info about relationship between mileage and trim, and other stats.


There is a lot whack about this post (not you!).

1) A used 2018 M# is not equivalent to a 'top range' new Model3. For one thing, the batteries have degraded. Raise your tax deductions and you'll get the money on every paycheck, heck raise them a lot and get it all back in a very few pay checks and then just lower it back down. That's a dumb reason given to overspend by $15K on a used car.
2) Anyone that has to pay 10% on a car loan right now, just should NOT be financing a $40K car right now. However, used car financing rates are much higher than new rates because they are riskier loans as the cars are mostly out of warranty. So interestingly enough, the payment on a used $35K Model3 may very well cost exactly the same as the payment with the better rates offered on a new one. Of course, the new car would be worth thousands more on resale. Ford is offering 2.9% right now on new cars, and $5-10K off.
3) Pretty sure that those that don't qualify for a $43K new car loan, shouldn't buy the well used one at $35K either.
4) Once again, if $500 matters, don't buy any $35K car. In fact, not sure you should even be buying a $10K car.

I suspect you are deep in a Tesla and are trying to justify something that's just absurd. A 2018 Model3 is a $20-25K car realistically, as shown by the recent trade-in values.

I'm already finding 2022 MYPs with less than 4K miles at $52-53K and I believe they will be high 40s in the next month. If so, I'll buy one.
 
I was going to sell our Subaru private party but checked Carmax on a whim after reading your comment above. They gave me an instant buy price $3k above the competitors...in line with private party value. I'm going to sell to them now!

Nearly the exact same thing happened to me when I figured this out, and without the trouble of dealing with the public. Carmax is really fair to the sellers. The buyers, well not so much imo.

Glad it worked out.
 
I suspect you are deep in a Tesla and are trying to justify something that's just absurd. A 2018 Model3 is a $20-25K car realistically, as shown by the recent trade-in values.

I'm already finding 2022 MYPs with less than 4K miles at $52-53K and I believe they will be high 40s in the next month. If so, I'll buy one.
Like I said, there's recent market data available on iSeeCars.com. I've provided a link for you to see for yourself.

Autotrader doesn't offer the same, but I don't find too many outliers.

How about taking a look at those before insisting I'm wrong? Sure, I see why one might assume such things, but data does not agree with your assertions.
 
My opinion? ANY time is a good time to buy a Tesla. My Tesla is not an investment. It is a car. Best one I’ve ever had. Worth every penny.

Just curious, what other cars have you owned? I have owned the Y for just under a year now. Acceleration is great. Not getting gas is wonderful. I like how it looks and on dry pavement it handles great. The minimalist interior I like (except that it needs more lighting). The sound system is decent and the screen is wonderful to watch Netflix when you're sitting around. The charging network is a plus. The OTA updates are great, though I can't really think of anything in the last year where I've said "wow that's an amazing new feature". The phone app is pretty cool to set schedules, warm up the vehicle, etc.

But it's noisier than any car I've owned (wind noise); the tech is glitchy (sometimes doors open, sometimes I have to physically open the app on my phone...once in a blue moon the system resets itself...a few times the system glitches when I first get in), the suspension is rougher than any car I've driven near its price range; the winter handling doesn't hold a candle to either of the Audi's I've owned (yes I use winter tires); the internal quality of materials is not great; the paint quality is poor; the fact that it doesn't have Carplay or Android Auto is odd; the phantom braking which has only happened maybe 5 times is .... 5 times too many esp since I rarely use AutoPilot; the interior at night it pitch black unless you buy after market lights; for god's sake put an AM antennae on it; no ventilated seats; no automated handsfree trunk; the service is non-existent (never thought I'd miss calling a dealership to get an appointment for service..and being given a car to drive for anything more than an hour ... but I do).

I would say not getting gas trumps a lot of these, but I've never understood the almost cult like positivity on Tesla's and best car ever owned comments, and now that I actually own one, I understand it even less oddly enough.

I mean, I'm not going to sell it, it's fine, I like it and again I love not getting gas. But it's a far cry from the best car I've ever owned (which in the last 15 years has only been an Audi S4, Audi Q5, Lexus RX330, and Ford's, VW's, Toyota before that). Plus, I do wonder about longevity of the paint in a salt rich environment, and overall fit finish given quality of materials used. Already see excessive wrinkling on the driver seat after ~10,000km.
 
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Just curious, what other cars have you owned? I have owned the Y for just under a year now. Acceleration is great. Not getting gas is wonderful. I like how it looks and on dry pavement it handles great. The minimalist interior I like (except that it needs more lighting). The sound system is decent and the screen is wonderful to watch Netflix when you're sitting around. The charging network is a plus. The OTA updates are great, though I can't really think of anything in the last year where I've said "wow that's an amazing new feature". The phone app is pretty cool to set schedules, warm up the vehicle, etc.

But it's noisier than any car I've owned (wind noise); the tech is glitchy (sometimes doors open, sometimes I have to physically open the app on my phone...once in a blue moon the system resets itself...a few times the system glitches when I first get in), the suspension is rougher than any car I've driven near its price range; the winter handling doesn't hold a candle to either of the Audi's I've owned (yes I use winter tires); the internal quality of materials is not great; the paint quality is poor; the fact that it doesn't have Carplay or Android Auto is odd; the phantom braking which has only happened maybe 5 times is .... 5 times too many esp since I rarely use AutoPilot; the interior at night it pitch black unless you buy after market lights; for god's sake put an AM antennae on it; no ventilated seats; no automated handsfree trunk; the service is non-existent (never thought I'd miss calling a dealership to get an appointment for service..and being given a car to drive for anything more than an hour ... but I do).

I would say not getting gas trumps a lot of these, but I've never understood the almost cult like positivity on Tesla's and best car ever owned comments, and now that I actually own one, I understand it even less oddly enough.

I mean, I'm not going to sell it, it's fine, I like it and again I love not getting gas. But it's a far cry from the best car I've ever owned (which in the last 15 years has only been an Audi S4, Audi Q5, Lexus RX330, and Ford's, VW's, Toyota before that). Plus, I do wonder about longevity of the paint in a salt rich environment, and overall fit finish given quality of materials used. Already see excessive wrinkling on the driver seat after ~10,000km.
I've owned Audi's, Lexus, Ford, Honda and Toyotas. German cars exclusively for over a decade, mostly Audi's and Lexus.
Tesla is one of the best cars I've owned. EV engineering is generations above anything else. Manufacturing, not so much. Cost cutting is par with Ford.
Question how the body will hold up for people that experience weather, I agree. I'm in socal, so nothing rusts here. You just have to worry about UV.

On what metric are you measuring being a great car? S4 is a great sports sedan. Tesla is a better appliance than the RX and anything Ford or VW has.

Comparing ICE cars to EV's is a false comparison. You really have to compare ev to ev.
Tesla has the best, fastest software and UI. OTA isn't just about some new feature, it's about correcting bugs and streamlining. Considering all legacy makers can barely get a OTA out (VAG took over a year to push out one single OTA for the ID4) Ford and GM can barely do better, if at all.

If the priority is build refinement, interior appointments and build detail than a legacy ICE car is the only way to get there. There are many luxury ICE vehicles you can buy at this pricepoint.

But people that want an EV, want an EV. You have to see what the market has on offer and Tesla simply offers the best package at the price.
 
I've owned Audi's, Lexus, Ford, Honda and Toyotas. German cars exclusively for over a decade, mostly Audi's and Lexus.
Tesla is one of the best cars I've owned. EV engineering is generations above anything else. Manufacturing, not so much. Cost cutting is par with Ford.
Question how the body will hold up for people that experience weather, I agree. I'm in socal, so nothing rusts here. You just have to worry about UV.

On what metric are you measuring being a great car? S4 is a great sports sedan. Tesla is a better appliance than the RX and anything Ford or VW has.

Comparing ICE cars to EV's is a false comparison. You really have to compare ev to ev.
Tesla has the best, fastest software and UI. OTA isn't just about some new feature, it's about correcting bugs and streamlining. Considering all legacy makers can barely get a OTA out (VAG took over a year to push out one single OTA for the ID4) Ford and GM can barely do better, if at all.

If the priority is build refinement, interior appointments and build detail than a legacy ICE car is the only way to get there. There are many luxury ICE vehicles you can buy at this pricepoint.

But people that want an EV, want an EV. You have to see what the market has on offer and Tesla simply offers the best package at the price.
I don’t dislike the Tesla. Just when I think about all the things that make a car great, which to me includes quality of materials, comfort, ride quality, road manners (in my case in inclement weather), quietness of the cabin, ability to use Waze (not a huge CarPlay or AA fan otherwise), and other things mentioned above, just saying I can’t say it’s the best “car” I’ve ever owned.

Is it the best designed EV out there at around its price range? It was when I bought it probably still is now, though when I buy a new car for my wife (and give her Audi Q5 to my son) in a year or so believe there will be stiff competition.

Which I guess is a good thing. The biggest diff is when I bought my first Audi I knew my next car in the household would be an Audi. Can’t really say that about Tesla but maybe they surprise me in the next year ish.
 
I don’t dislike the Tesla. Just when I think about all the things that make a car great, which to me includes quality of materials, comfort, ride quality, road manners (in my case in inclement weather), quietness of the cabin, ability to use Waze (not a huge CarPlay or AA fan otherwise), and other things mentioned above, just saying I can’t say it’s the best “car” I’ve ever owned.

Is it the best designed EV out there at around its price range? It was when I bought it probably still is now, though when I buy a new car for my wife (and give her Audi Q5 to my son) in a year or so believe there will be stiff competition.

Which I guess is a good thing. The biggest diff is when I bought my first Audi I knew my next car in the household would be an Audi. Can’t really say that about Tesla but maybe they surprise me in the next year ish.
Audi's are like that supermodel that you fall in love but after you marry, discover they have a hidden meth habit. Then you have to lay out tons of $ and time or else her teeth start falling out and she starts twitching and dropping loads in her pants.
I love Audis but every time I get one, I swear that's the last one.

Tesla is more the other way around. Very pretty, but rough around the edges and wants the corner grille instead of French Laundry.
But underneath, so impressive and the guts are at least two generations ahead of anyone else.(so yeah, legacy makers are more than two years behind)
The Y just needs better rebound control. If they spent a little on suspenion tuning, that would be money well spent. But, they are cheap and don't need to at this point.


I've driven the Q4 ETron. It's no great shakes inside either. Tons of hard plastics and ID4 running gear with better human interfaces.
I'm impressed with the ID4. I think VW did a great job but failed on a couple crucial features that are mind-numbing in how bad it is.

Tesla Y is better than both.
 
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The Y LR was $48,990 at its lowest point before the recent drop and it was an excellent EV at that price point. Now you can get it for $52,990 - $7500 (if you qualify) which brings the cheapest possible cost to $45,490 + taxes and fees, which is a STEAL compared to everything else out there. I don't believe that Tesla will be lowering prices any further in the future, but would love for the Y SR to make another comeback at the $39,990 price point so I can trade in my Bolt EUV for it without losing any $$$ in the process 😁

$42k after state rebate :)

I am still not sure. You can get almost brand new low miles Audi A5 or S5 Sportback for that money (and dont need to wait 1 year for rebates). 30-35 MPG, Android Auto, miles ahead in quality and dealer service
 
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