Is now the worst time in history to order a Model Y?

[_ken]

Out of necessity (car accident in October), I need a new car. Have decided to go electric, and have narrowed it down to the Hyundai IONIQ 5 and Tesla Model Y. With the ridiculous "market adjustments" for the IONIQ5 right now, that sort of ruled it out for me.. no interest in giving a random Hyundai dealership an extra 10-15k for nothing.

But it seems like right now might be the worst time to order? Despite the $3750 credit, demand is softening hardcore and prices are expected to drop in the next few months, so it won't surprise me to see big price adjustments next year..

In addition, the removal of USS with no clear path forward for people who order their car right now... AND the leaks about new radar potentially coming in Jan/Feb next year, the leaks about new cameras in the headlights on those M3 photographed.. and the potential for HW4.. like, aside from the $3750, is now the worst time to order?

What are the chances that someone who ordered a MYP right now would be offered a free upgrade path to the new headlight cameras/HW4/radar to return functionality to smart summon, autopark, etc? How has that been handled historically?

My worry is that ordering now has sort of the "worst of all worlds" feature set for the MYP with big changes potentially coming early next year.. and being stuck with a car that winds up having lower resale due to lack of features

 

[jebinc]

Seems like your opening statement will drive your decision more than speculation you may receive from member’s here.

 

[Yelobird]

Think your Way over thinking it and siding Way to much on wild assumed speculation. The future of ALL cars is uncertain as they will All improve. The only thing certain is it’s a great car and you seem to need one. Good luck with your choice.

 

[cgell]

Prices may change, but it’s hard to predict that. Features will change. Next month, next year, the year after, and so on. If I needed a car I would buy now.

 

[_ken]

Seems like your opening statement will drive your decision more than speculation tou may find from member’s here.

Well, it's true I need a car and I really have narrowed it down, but I'm not averse to having a rental for a couple of months and ordering once the new features are announced "mid-January" like the leak about radar suggests?

I guess I'm more interested in if there'll be a free upgrade path to the new radar/cameras/whatever else is required to return functionality of features for those who have one of the new USS-free cars, but without whatever else is coming early next year

 

[exxxviii]

Well, you need a car, so the timing is not much of a factor. That said, all car purchases (Ioniq 5, EV6, Mach-E, Model Y, etc.) now are roughly equal, so just pick your favorite and buy.

That said, I was like you, shopping for an I5 Limited but aborted because of the high market adjustments. I found a fantastic used Model Y that was basically a new car. Couldn't be happier. This is probably the best time to order a MY, because you can actually know that you will be getting one without a ransom markup. You cannot say that for any other available comparable EV on the market.

You might also consider a used one from Tesla's website, especially if you are interested in acceleration boost and FSD - the used cars from Tesla come with all the software upgrades juiced to the max. And, you can be sure to have USS, if that is critical to you.

 

[jjrandorin]

I guess I'm more interested in if there'll be a free upgrade path

Particularly with vehicles, its best to buy based on what the vehicle is RIGHT NOW, not what you THINK it might be, or what is "promised". The only "free upgrade path" expectation should be that park assist, summon and smart summon will eventually work without USS. Other than that, no.

Based on the tone of the thread title and your first post, you have already made this decision, and should proceed forward with some other vehicle (perhaps hunting down an Ioniq with less market adjustment or some other vehicle other than a Tesla).

On a side note, I know people do this all the time, but I have never personally understood people making a decision on buying any vehicle or other based on what it will be worth when they sell it. A car is not a home or something, and the expectation should be for depreciation. You only realize that depreciation when you sell it, before that it is just a number.

Buying a car based on what its worth when you go to sell it is like Dating someone and planning for the breakup before you start dating them, to me.

Anyway, I fully believe there are plenty of good vehicles out there, and there is no reason for someone to feel "obligated" to purchase any particular vehicle. When someone is already looking for reasons not to buy something, they dont really want it, and thats fine, they should move on and continue looking for the thing that meets their criteria.

 

[zoomer0056]

free upgrade

Not free, mostly. There are software upgrades that are free. But those are hit and miss with all EVs. Features can easily be taken away or added. If you're waiting for the latest then you'll never buy. The EV market is evolving very quickly and there's changes all the time. No matter when you buy, whatever you buy will be old the next day.

 

[Kokukenji]

If you need a car now, get the car that ticks the most boxes for you. There will always be better cars in the feature or cars with the same features for less money. If you play the waiting game, you will end up waiting for a long time or worse yet, regret every buying decision you make.

 

[voip-ninja]

Out of necessity (car accident in October), I need a new car. Have decided to go electric, and have narrowed it down to the Hyundai IONIQ 5 and Tesla Model Y. With the ridiculous "market adjustments" for the IONIQ5 right now, that sort of ruled it out for me.. no interest in giving a random Hyundai dealership an extra 10-15k for nothing.

But it seems like right now might be the worst time to order? Despite the $3750 credit, demand is softening hardcore and prices are expected to drop in the next few months, so it won't surprise me to see big price adjustments next year..

In addition, the removal of USS with no clear path forward for people who order their car right now... AND the leaks about new radar potentially coming in Jan/Feb next year, the leaks about new cameras in the headlights on those M3 photographed.. and the potential for HW4.. like, aside from the $3750, is now the worst time to order?

What are the chances that someone who ordered a MYP right now would be offered a free upgrade path to the new headlight cameras/HW4/radar to return functionality to smart summon, autopark, etc? How has that been handled historically?

My worry is that ordering now has sort of the "worst of all worlds" feature set for the MYP with big changes potentially coming early next year.. and being stuck with a car that winds up having lower resale due to lack of features

There's no timeline to any of what you are concerned about actually showing up in production vehicles. Some of it could show up in the next quarter or two or none of it could show up even by the end of the year.

If you're willing to wait a year, certainly there will be some additional things added, the most likely is newer higher resolution cameras and AP Gen 4 hardware since we already know that Gen 3 will never be autonomous driving capable.

I would say prices could be cut if demand slumps, but it's also unknown how much federal tax credit the Y will qualify for and if that will keep demand going so TSLA doesn't have to cut prices.

Ultimately it comes down to when you need a car. If you're really worried about "missing out" on stuff then you could just buy a lightly used 3-4 year old car that has taken a big depreciation hit, drive it for a year and then sell it when you see the right combination of features that seem valuable enough to you to take the plunge.

 

[dwest218]

You asked if this is the WORST time to buy a Tesla? I am wondering the same. No USS and tons of stories of phantom braking and vision problems. I don’t plan on using FSD and mostly just autopilot but even using that seems to be a big problem. No USS and who knows when that software will ever get done. Maybe the new radar will support close in obstacles or better cameras for detecting low close in. How long are you keeping the car? 7-10 years? What’s a month or two just to make sure.

They asked the FCC to hold off on the announcement but why? Because nobody would place an order. An order on what? Something that is currently in mass production already. Would love to hear others thoughts on this.

 

[_ken]

Thanks for all the advice y'all have provided. I definitely understand the "order if you need the car" and "new things will always be coming" -- definitely true. I don't want to wait forever, I'm just wondering if we're in a uniquely poor time period of ~2-3 months where ordering doesn't make sense.

It's like a unique combination of the removal of USS combined with the fact that these new features may begin rolling out in the next few months based on the leaks. Obviously we don't know for sure, but it would suck to end up with one of the MY's on the road that don't have USS and also aren't able to get new HD radar/cameras without spending a ton of money.

I guess I'd have to hope if you buy EAP, they'd make sure you have what you need to regain the functions currently unavailable due to no USS...

 

[voip-ninja]

Thanks for all the advice y'all have provided. I definitely understand the "order if you need the car" and "new things will always be coming" -- definitely true. I don't want to wait forever, I'm just wondering if we're in a uniquely poor time period of ~2-3 months where ordering doesn't make sense.

It's like a unique combination of the removal of USS combined with the fact that these new features may begin rolling out in the next few months based on the leaks. Obviously we don't know for sure, but it would suck to end up with one of the MY's on the road that don't have USS and also aren't able to get new HD radar/cameras without spending a ton of money.

I guess I'd have to hope if you buy EAP, they'd make sure you have what you need to regain the functions currently unavailable due to no USS...

You also have to account that if you don't find an inventory car you are happy with you are looking at a wait of minimum 1-2 months to get an ordered car, assuming you don't order MYP.

 

[_ken]

You also have to account that if you don't find an inventory car you are happy with you are looking at a wait of minimum 1-2 months to get an ordered car, assuming you don't order MYP.

The prime thing motivating me to order right now would be the $3750 off, so I would go for a MYP to ensure delivery this month.

 

[jin512]

Well, you need a car, so the timing is not much of a factor. That said, all car purchases (Ioniq 5, EV6, Mach-E, Model Y, etc.) now are roughly equal, so just pick your favorite and buy.

That said, I was like you, shopping for an I5 Limited but aborted because of the high market adjustments. I found a fantastic used Model Y that was basically a new car. Couldn't be happier. This is probably the best time to order a MY, because you can actually know that you will be getting one without a ransom markup. You cannot say that for any other available comparable EV on the market.

You might also consider a used one from Tesla's website, especially if you are interested in acceleration boost and FSD - the used cars from Tesla come with all the software upgrades juiced to the max. And, you can be sure to have USS, if that is critical to you.

Just out of curiosity, where did you get your used Model Y?

 

[exxxviii]

Just out of curiosity, where did you get your used Model Y?

Local Nissan dealer. I was planning to order a new one and went to the dealer to look at the color to decide which color I liked most. I did not look at anything else in the ad. Got there, and it was exactly what I would have ordered, and it only had 300 miles.

The original owner got it in July 2022 then sold it at auction almost immediately. I figured that they either decided to flip it or did not like it. The car is absolutely perfect. My dealer bought it to try to make a mint (was originally asking $85K), but had to drop the price to unload it. I think I happened to walk in when they decided to bite the bullet and take the loss on the car.

 

[RedSupraT]

I'd hold off until Jan/Feb to see what happens as far as USS/radar/cameras/pricing/etc. Nothing worse than "settling" for something only to regret it later. Been there..done that. I'll wait to see what the beggining of the 2023 brings before deciding to order or not.

 

[exxxviii]

The prime thing motivating me to order right now would be the $3750 off, so I would go for a MYP to ensure delivery this month.

Go for it. Your odds of finding an even remotely close Ioniq 5 Limited for under $70K is low. And that might take a few months of waiting. And you might not have any choice over interior or exterior colors.

On the other hand, if you order a Model Y Performance now, your odds are very high that it could deliver immediately. And you could choose the colors you want. And there is a chance that it would have the USS.

Unless you also want FSD too, then the Radar speculation is not going to add any value. The car already works great on autopilot with the cameras. Plus, Tesla will eventually get the EAP features back online without USS, we just don't know when...

 

[MYMY21]

I took delivery on 12/3. This one has EAP. I was preparing to take delivery even before the December credit was announced. That was just a bonus. This is our second MY the first one does not have radar, but does have USS and FSD. I like the USS when doing summons in and out of the garage or driving in tight spaces like a parking garage. So far the new MY does not have summons until a future software update. I can attest to the fact that there is phantom breaking on our first MY. And it’s far from perfect in inclement weather. However, for the vast majority of driving, it’s great. And I had no reservations about the new one even though USS was removed. There’s no easier answer to your question, but I’m a happy customer. These cars are great to drive and a perfect size for our needs. I can nitpick on a lot of things I would change, but nothing substantial.

 

[jjrandorin]

Local Nissan dealer. I was planning to order a new one and went to the dealer to look at the color to decide which color I liked most. I did not look at anything else in the ad. Got there, and it was exactly what I would have ordered, and it only had 300 miles.

The original owner got it in July 2022 then sold it at auction almost immediately. I figured that they either decided to flip it or did not like it. The car is absolutely perfect. My dealer bought it to try to make a mint (was originally asking $85K), but had to drop the price to unload it. I think I happened to walk in when they decided to bite the bullet and take the loss on the car.

Nice score!