Is Tesla making their resale value obsolete?

[JenkinsEar]

Wow, thanks everyone for the great info! Tons of stuff I never considered.
I thought the 2016s with AP1 were off my radar, but now I might reconsider. If I am looking for the next 3-5 years then the difference between AP1 and FSD might be minimal.
The battery depreciation sounds a LOT different than what I had thought and now makes it a non-factor.
We are going to make our decision by the end of the month so now I have to go back to the table with this new information and discuss it with my wife and 17 year old (hes the car guru, while I know very little).
It looks like either a $90k new Model X or $65k 2016 Model X or $40-50k new Model 3. Only problem is that I live in Wisconsin and I would have to drive to Chicago just to sit in a Model 3 since no car dealer nearby has any. The next Model 3 I see on the road I will have to follow it and see if they will let me check it out. I bet they wouldnt mind.

Go to your nearest supercharger and hang around - you'll probably see a M3 show up.

 

[mxnym]

I'm estimating by xmas the '16 90D (6 seat) will be pretty consistently found at or slightly under $60K. I'm crunching alternative numbers around VW Atlas '19 ($45k) or new Hyundai Palaside ($40k-$50k). When you look at the depreciation on the new ICE's and gas savings, the X actually makes solid financial sense. After first 2-3 years it seems like Tesla depreciation levels off very smooth and gradual, so total ownership costs drop if you sell back at some point.

As I have an X and my wife has an Atlas, I have to say this: make sure you get the entire family into and out of both before you make a decision. The Atlas is a dream for ingress/egress/car seats, far better than anything else I've experienced, including a comparably sized and fitted Infiniti SUV. That having been said, in spite of how much better the Atlas is for hauling the family, we usually take the X if we're going far, and if I happen to be in a position to afford a truck when they come out (and assuming they'll seat 6 comfortably), the Atlas might go bye bye and the wife might take over the X.

 

[rayfound]

As I have an X and my wife has an Atlas, I have to say this: make sure you get the entire family into and out of both before you make a decision. The Atlas is a dream for ingress/egress/car seats, far better than anything else I've experienced, including a comparably sized and fitted Infiniti SUV. That having been said, in spite of how much better the Atlas is for hauling the family, we usually take the X if we're going far, and if I happen to be in a position to afford a truck when they come out (and assuming they'll seat 6 comfortably), the Atlas might go bye bye and the wife might take over the X.

Which seating arrangement do you have on your X? I can harldy imagine an easier vehicle for ingress egress than the 6-seat Model X, between the wide aisle, the FWDs, and the single post seats for rear legroom.

 

[mxnym]

Which seating arrangement do you have on your X? I can harldy imagine an easier vehicle for ingress egress than the 6-seat Model X, between the wide aisle, the FWDs, and the single post seats for rear legroom.

7 seat. Oh how I regret not going with 6. There are those who beg to differ, though, I can fold down my seats!

 

[Sandiegodoug]

I have a 6/17 x 6 seats real leather that I will never sell, so resale of little concern. Free supercharger use means a few extra miles of range no concern. I have seen teslaloop vehicles with over 300,000 in them and drivers said very few issues .

 

[seantay00]

@mxnym Very interesting! So out of curiosity what drives you to using the X over the larger Atlas for long trips? If you would have gone with the six seater, do you think you'd find yourself using the X for short trips as well over the Atlas?

Ironically we took all three of our kiddos to Tesla this weekend to do just that. We have 1/3/5 year olds. The 5 year old was fine in the back with the 6 seater. There was definitely more room in 3rd row of Atlas for an adult, but with only one adult I could do a longer trip in the X (i think) with the 6 seater pass through. If there were two adults in the back of the X I think I might get annoyed for anything longer then 30 minutes and prefer the Atlas.

My wife and I really liked the Atlas look, feel, and tech packages... although there have been some nasty quality issues that make some of the Model X issues here seem like childs play. (ie. Engine coolant leaks, stalling in intersections, gas sensor issues, ect) Have you had good luck with your Atlas?

What ages are your kids?

 

[GalaxySurfer]

Personal opinion: If price isnt a "huge" factor. You'd definitely be the most happy in the "Newest" X you can get. (Latest AP you can get, Raven model prefferred) That being said.. _Any_ Tesla will be a car your happy with.

X does have a few "Wow" factors the other models just dont offer tho.

 

[gangzoom]

So in 5 years when Tesla is up to Robotaxi level, no one will care about your AP1 X or even your AP2 X with the Gen 1 FSD Computer.


Edit: The moral here is every Tesla you buy today will become “old” sooner than a traditional make that only updates every 5 years. So, buy the car with the features you like today and just enjoy it. If that is the AP1 X, then you saved some $$ on the depreciation curve that you avoided with the new X.

I think what people forget is the used market is not isolated to Tesla. People looking to buy a used SUV will also look at the Lexus RX, BMW X5, how are they going to compare to even a 2016 AP1 X?

Our 2017 X with AP2 and MCU 1 has only gotten better with time. I'm waiting to see what FSD 1.0 looks like once the AP2 CPU is swapped out.

A new Raven X obviously has more range and MCU 2, but costs £91k here in the UK once on 6 seater spec, our 2017 car was £71k when new.

If we sold our X now we could get £55k easily, which is 70% residuals at 2.5 years, for the UK market this is almost unbeatable residuals. But we would have to spend nearly another £40k to get into a Raven, and thats is alot of money to pay for range we don't need an games on the MCU.

Interestingly I was happy for 50% depreciation at 3 years, which would mean £36k value in April 2020. Give a the much touted VW ID is looking like it'll cost €40k for 240 miles of EPA range in summer 2020, I suspect our X will be holding its value well for a long time to come yet.

The fact Tesla have also done the CCS retrofit to our car for a very reasonable £450, improved 0-60 times, improved charging speeds post delivery, and promised to upgrade to AP3 CPU actually means we have very little incentive to change cars.

Our X is the only car I've bought which really have got better with time. Yes the newer Xs are better, but compared to other cars made by other manufactures in 2017 nothing comes close. Infact I suspect once the AP3 hardware goes into the car even a 2021 brand new Lexus RX will feel dated compared to our 2017 X!!

Clearly we all want the new/best stuff, but Tesla have made these cars very well. If your happy with the feature set there is very little reason to sell up. People will though and buying a used one is a great way to cash in on other peoples deprecation.

 

[mxnym]

@mxnym Very interesting! So out of curiosity what drives you to using the X over the larger Atlas for long trips? If you would have gone with the six seater, do you think you'd find yourself using the X for short trips as well over the Atlas?

Ironically we took all three of our kiddos to Tesla this weekend to do just that. We have 1/3/5 year olds. The 5 year old was fine in the back with the 6 seater. There was definitely more room in 3rd row of Atlas for an adult, but with only one adult I could do a longer trip in the X (i think) with the 6 seater pass through. If there were two adults in the back of the X I think I might get annoyed for anything longer then 30 minutes and prefer the Atlas.

My wife and I really liked the Atlas look, feel, and tech packages... although there have been some nasty quality issues that make some of the Model X issues here seem like childs play. (ie. Engine coolant leaks, stalling in intersections, gas sensor issues, ect) Have you had good luck with your Atlas?

What ages are your kids?

We bought the 2018 Atlas in summer 2017 before we bought my 2017 X in fall, both while we knew we were planning on one more pregnancy (that ultimately came about slightly quicker than expected), but had an infant, a 3 year old, and a 5 year old at the time. We didn't know about Ride Safer Travel Vest child restraint system then (RideSafer Travel Vest - RideSafer Travel Vest learned about it somewhere on this forum), and we probably would only just now be able to use the X for trips if we hadn't learned about it; kids are 1, 2, 4, and 6 now, with only one rear facing.

When I say trips, I mean (relatively) short trips. We don't take the kids on long trips yet. I move the car seats to the X when we're going to drive an hour or two to see family, go to the zoo, etc. I also move them to the X if we know we're going to go out locally multiple times over a weekend. If we go somewhere on a weeknight, we take the Atlas, and it's also used when my wife takes the kids to and from school (or anywhere else while I'm gone to work). The reason why we usually take the X on trips is because I like driving it and everyone else is fine being a passenger in it (luckily, we don't have the fold down DVD player screens in the Atlas or that might not be the case). If my wife wants to drive, we might take the Atlas instead (she's very comfortable driving the Atlas and hasn't gotten comfortable driving the X yet).

We haven't had ANY issues with the Atlas that I can remember; I believe it's only been serviced for routine maintenance and recalls. It's pretty low mileage, though, less than 10K miles on it while over 30K miles now on the X (probably 4 times the miles on the X if you don't round to nearest 10's).

To get into the meat of everything, though, while the X can be made to work, if I'm suggesting a car for people with multiple kids, it's a minivan, and if they just can't bring themselves to drive a minivan, I say an Atlas is the next best thing. Here are some of the kid-related reasons why: I'm 6'1" and my wife is 5'0" so we can fit the car seats in the X by NOT having one behind me, but there is SO MUCH room to spare in the Atlas with the car seats installed that our heights are irrelevant (while this forces 3rd row access to the driver side, the passenger seat can be all the way back with a rear facing car seat directly behind it). In addition to that, rear access is SO MUCH easier in the Atlas with or without car seats (granted it's previously been pointed out that that's because we have the fold-down middle row 7 seat interior), the car seats are SO MUCH easier to install (and therefore rearrange) in the Atlas than ANYTHING else I've had them in, and while I can't even understand how, my wife can reach the car seat in the middle row middle seat for buckling and unbuckling while standing on the ground outside the vehicle.

Beyond kids, though, when you start talking about fitting adults in the back, you presumably start with the second row, and I'm not sure I could even sit in my default position with one adult directly behind me and another in the third row. That's another 7-seat bench issue, though (you need to move the bench forward a little bit to have any space at all in the third row). In my experience, I've found that less true in the 6-seaters I've driven. Nonetheless, as you've observed, putting two adults in the third row of the Atlas isn't much of a stretch, but even one can be one in the X (for instance, at 6'1" my head would be touching/bumping the rear window if I rode sitting up straight in the third row).