Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Is Tesla Model Y coming earlier than expected?

Saghost

Well-Known Member
Oct 9, 2013
8,224
7,088
Delaware
Even if they could deliver the Y earlier than expected I don't think it would make sense to do so until Model 3 orders begin to taper off.

I don’t think that’s going to happen. Hopefully at some point the rate of growth of the line will exceed the rate of growth of demand for the 3, but I don’t think 3 orders will taper off.

Tesla delivering the Y early would give an answer to the Tesla is always late people, and obviously ramp up demand some more.

The Y is also the real competitor for the E-Tron and EQC and iPace, so getting it on the market for comparisons so they have to stop pretending to be X competitors helps.
 
  • Like
Reactions: camthehombre

camthehombre

Member
Jan 25, 2018
454
412
Spanish Fork, UT
I think there is a lot of detail here for it not to be at least partially accurate. Plus they make a strong case for the Y to come sooner than expected.
I agree. Not only that, but the sightings of Model Y are happening way earlier than that of the Model 3. That is, if we assume it's still slated for Late 2020.
Model 3 sightings started in early April 2017 with first deliveries end July 2017, so just about 4 months. If that were the case now we would see first deliveries around Mid February 2020. If all goes well and they've worked out the kinks for the production line, we really could be seeing them around end of Q1 2020

Edit- correction. First sightings may have been Late May 2017. Still, basically the same as what I stated.
 

Dadiggaman

Member
Mar 9, 2018
54
84
USA
Even if they could deliver the Y earlier than expected I don't think it would make sense to do so until Model 3 orders begin to taper off.
I don't see Model 3 demand tapering. People like me who love Model 3, but need the versatility of Model Y were never going to buy a Model 3 and are just waiting patiently. Hopefully for less time than we thought.
People argue that Model 3 is poaching Model sales, but I argue that all Tesla sales are poaching ICE sales. More Tesla options are better for the market.
 
  • Like
Reactions: vickh

camthehombre

Member
Jan 25, 2018
454
412
Spanish Fork, UT
I don't see Model 3 demand tapering. People like me who love Model 3, but need the versatility of Model Y were never going to buy a Model 3 and are just waiting patiently.
This right here. Only reason I won't buy a 3 is because we have two big dogs and our little boy. The Y is exactly what we want and can afford. If it wasn't for the dogs then I would have gotten a 3 when it first came out.
 
  • Like
Reactions: reardencode

vickh

Active Member
Dec 16, 2018
3,153
709
az
I don’t think that’s going to happen. Hopefully at some point the rate of growth of the line will exceed the rate of growth of demand for the 3, but I don’t think 3 orders will taper off.

Tesla delivering the Y early would give an answer to the Tesla is always late people, and obviously ramp up demand some more.

The Y is also the real competitor for the E-Tron and EQC and iPace, so getting it on the market for comparisons so they have to stop pretending to be X competitors helps.


This might make them deliver Y's faster:

Cross-Sell Interactive is trying to give investors a new edge on Tesla stock by tracking new-vehicle registration data in two dozen states. Cross-Sell’s third quarter report—released Monday evening—is alarming, showing lower prices and stagnant sales

Tesla Sales Are Stagnating, a New Data Service Says. Will It Matter for the Stock?


I have a SR 3 and patiently waiting for a SR Y w/ 7 seats (hopefully more range then 200+miles by then)
 

vickh

Active Member
Dec 16, 2018
3,153
709
az
I don't see Model 3 demand tapering. People like me who love Model 3, but need the versatility of Model Y were never going to buy a Model 3 and are just waiting patiently. Hopefully for less time than we thought.
People argue that Model 3 is poaching Model sales, but I argue that all Tesla sales are poaching ICE sales. More Tesla options are better for the market.

+1 it's all about how you see the pie. All car sales vs EVs only etc.
 
  • Like
Reactions: camthehombre

electracity

Active Member
Jun 8, 2015
4,028
3,458
60606
Even if they could deliver the Y earlier than expected I don't think it would make sense to do so until Model 3 orders begin to taper off.

Perception of the imminent release of the model Y will probably freeze many potential Model 3 buyers. So the best strategy is to release early. IMO there is no way for the model Y release to not hurt model 3 sales. So the best approach is to manage expectations for a 2021 release but deliver the model Y earlier.

This is a situation where Tesla's reputation of being late actually helps. They want to keep people in the mindset of buying a model 3 now and getting the model Y as their next car.

I assume that they are preparing to switch some Fremont model 3 lines to model Y. The reason the model 3 sells well is lack of alternatives. I don't see any cars from other manufacturers coming close to the desirability of the model Y.

Tesla is likely to be badly production constrained on the model Y for a couple of years.
 

Rockster

Active Member
Oct 22, 2013
3,014
4,692
McKinney, TX
Perception of the imminent release of the model Y will probably freeze many potential Model 3 buyers. So the best strategy is to release early. IMO there is no way for the model Y release to not hurt model 3 sales. So the best approach is to manage expectations for a 2021 release but deliver the model Y earlier.

This is a situation where Tesla's reputation of being late actually helps. They want to keep people in the mindset of buying a model 3 now and getting the model Y as their next car.

I assume that they are preparing to switch some Fremont model 3 lines to model Y. The reason the model 3 sells well is lack of alternatives. I don't see any cars from other manufacturers coming close to the desirability of the model Y.

Tesla is likely to be badly production constrained on the model Y for a couple of years.

Yeah, thinking it through a bit further, it really doesn't matter if they sell a 3 or a Y. They're making $$ either way and more options are better for consumers and the utility of the Y is likely to broaden their customer base considerably.
 

MyMai

Member
Jul 16, 2019
61
48
Bayarea
I think Tesla is at the point they need to push Y out asap, since fall of 2020 will be a battle field for EV SUVs. with Volvo, Audi, Rivian all launch around same quarter; and advantage of having more charge stations fading away. Y need to be out sooner to take first bite into mid size SUV market, or suffer heavy competition from rivals.
 

jeewee3000

Active Member
Sep 1, 2015
1,230
7,043
Belgium
I really don't believe Model Y will enter volume production sooner than fall 2020 as Tesla has been guiding the last few quarters.

The recent news stories rather imply that Tesla has learned from the (initially slow pace of the) Model 3 ramp and wants to avoid that mistake by getting their pilot lines up early.

There is a good chance Model Y will probably be produced in small numbers earlier, for employees and the like, just like they did with Model 3. But volume production won't happen before Q4 2020. Let's just hope that by Q4 2020 Tesla has ramped enough that they can produce around 1.000 - 3.000 Model Y's per week entering the quarter.

Regarding the above comment about the heavy competition from rivals in the midsize SUV market, I clicked disagree since I am convinced Tesla Model Y will not only be a better car on paper (more value for money), but also will have excellent demand given Tesla's status as being the best BEV manufacturer out there.

The market is too large for Model Y to fail, even if it only arrives by Q2 2021 for example.
 

BEEC

Member
Aug 7, 2016
16
6
Fresno, Ca
I like the view of SUV, and had been own model X for 3 years. It's a great car, but my kids hate the wing, because it cause too much attention. So I am impatiently awaiting for the arrival of model Y. I think l, there a many reason people will order Model Y instead of Model X...
 

GenSao

Member
Aug 3, 2017
576
996
Pleasant Hill, CA

There was a followup post: Tesla Model Y: "Limited Production" ≠ Customer Deliveries | CleanTechnica

With the recent price adjustment for the model 3, delivery times for SR+ and LR-RWD are now 6-10 weeks and 8-10 weeks for the P (even for me in the SF Bay Area). Seems longer than usual. I suspect there is some "rejigging" going on with a potential combination of the 3 and Y GA lines.
 

camthehombre

Member
Jan 25, 2018
454
412
Spanish Fork, UT
There was a followup post: Tesla Model Y: "Limited Production" ≠ Customer Deliveries | CleanTechnica

With the recent price adjustment for the model 3, delivery times for SR+ and LR-RWD are now 6-10 weeks and 8-10 weeks for the P (even for me in the SF Bay Area). Seems longer than usual. I suspect there is some "rejigging" going on with a potential combination of the 3 and Y GA lines.
That would make sense. I saw the follow up after I posted the link. Could be rejigging or possibly staggered shipping out of the US? I feel like Tesla does that closer to end of quarter though.
 

Products we're discussing on TMC...

About Us

Formed in 2006, Tesla Motors Club (TMC) was the first independent online Tesla community. Today it remains the largest and most dynamic community of Tesla enthusiasts. Learn more.

Do you value your experience at TMC? Consider becoming a Supporting Member of Tesla Motors Club. As a thank you for your contribution, you'll get nearly no ads in the Community and Groups sections. Additional perks are available depending on the level of contribution. Please visit the Account Upgrades page for more details.


SUPPORT TMC
Top