Is Tesla opening two SuperCharger sites a day anytime soon?

[Missile Toad]

Given the recent updated 2017 Charger roll-out map that shows 78 new SuperCharger sites coming to California and another 24 sites coming to Texas, I extrapolate that Tesla is trying for 463 new SuperCharger sites in the U.S. alone in 2017. Given that Tesla has added about 16 sites YTD, this seems like another Elon Musk alternative fact -- which might come true mid to late 2018, rather than 2017 as Tesla 'plans'.

There are 249 days remaining in 2017, including holidays and weekends. 463 new sites will require 2 new adds daily, and quite likely 3 new adds daily in December, given that we are lucky to have a single added SuperCharger site in a week now. Is this realistic? Can they ramp that quickly?

Certainly, earning money (perhaps enough to sustain the network independent of Tesla) with idle fees and post-400-kWhr fees incentivizes things. But, from my personal experience in the cellular phone industry, which ramped mightily in the 1990s, there is no way this Tesla 'doubling' happens in 2017.

 

[Topher]

You seriously expect them to have built them in the winter?

I count 4 openings this week (Monroe WA, Arlington TX, El Paso TX, Aix-en-Provence - Val de l'Arc France)

Thank you kindly.

 

[TexLaw]

It's an ambitious goal, and I've learned the Tesla's goals are pretty much based on a best case scenario, but it can be done. They seem to have SpC installation pretty well figured out. Other than cost, the major bottleneck is acquiring the site and getting the permitting done. The next potential delay is weather (it's tough to work those sites when it's raining).

It's not like there aren't crews out there looking for work. Materials aren't all that cheap at the moment (worldwide market), but labor and financing still looks fairly attractive. Time it with the Model 3 coming, and this is a great time to bust butt to double the network.

 

[Missile Toad]

You seriously expect them to have built them in the winter?

Assuming they can persist with 3 adds in a week for the next 5 weeks. They need to quadruple that rate after that, and (since December has concrete pouring/curing issues), they would probably need to double that rate again, for November. Here is an example rollout:
June: 30
July: 60
Aug: 60
Sept: 70
Oct: 80
Nov: 120
Dec: 30
=====
350 total

 

[Topher]

While your experience with cell phones is, I'm sure, completely valid when it comes to superchargers . The ramp up of the superchargers failing, is only a problem if the ramp up of the Model 3 (which is ten times, rather than 2 times) succeeds. I think if Tesla can do the latter, the former should be easier.

Thank you kindly.

 

[kort677]

while I hope that this plan is implemented as shown I think that the realities will be hard to overcome in the time frame offered.
site acquisition, local permitting and the power infrastructure are hurdles that take time to get in line.

 

[KJD]

Given the recent updated 2017 Charger roll-out map that shows 78 new SuperCharger sites coming to California and another 24 sites coming to Texas, I extrapolate that Tesla is trying for 463 new SuperCharger sites in the U.S. alone in 2017. Given that Tesla has added about 16 sites YTD, this seems like another Elon Musk alternative fact -- which might come true mid to late 2018, rather than 2017 as Tesla 'plans'.

There are 249 days remaining in 2017, including holidays and weekends. 463 new sites will require 2 new adds daily, and quite likely 3 new adds daily in December, given that we are lucky to have a single added SuperCharger site in a week now. Is this realistic? Can they ramp that quickly?

Certainly, earning money (perhaps enough to sustain the network independent of Tesla) with idle fees and post-400-kWhr fees incentivizes things. But, from my personal experience in the cellular phone industry, which ramped mightily in the 1990s, there is no way this Tesla 'doubling' happens in 2017.

Does it really matter if this happens by the end of 2017 or the end of 2018. I think not.

I will be glad to see the expansion happen, whenever it happens, this year or next year, its all good.

 

[sorka]

If there announced plan was anything close to reality, we'd already see a *MASSIVE* spike in permits and construction activity before now to even have a chance at opening that many new locations in the next 8 months.

 

[Sonny Daze]

You seriously expect them to have built them in the winter?

Yes, they opened 72 in the first quarter of 2015, the 3rd most of any quarter.

 

[BerTX]

Is it possible that Tesla will be changing to a more pre-built system, building them in a factory and shipping modules to the site? They built the temporary units in the past -- maybe they have a more aesthetically pleasing design that will meet the approval of business owners. Then it is a matter of having the utility place the transformer and an electrician to hook it up. Permitting would be a mechanical permit (more like placing an air conditioning unit) rather than a building permit. No excavation, no building contractors, no weather issues, increased reliability. If they need more capacity, drop in another unit.

 

[David99]

I honestly think the announcement from Tesla was a big marketing stunt to silence the criticism about not having enough Superchargers when the Model 3 hits the road, especially when there are already bottlenecks right now. It's just telling the people and press that they have the solution in the works. Will it happen in 2017? I highly doubt it. But they officially stated their commitment to vastly expanding the Supercharger network and that's what people needed to hear now.

 

[skitown]

Is it possible that Tesla will be changing to a more pre-built system, building them in a factory and shipping modules to the site? They built the temporary units in the past -- maybe they have a more aesthetically pleasing design that will meet the approval of business owners. Then it is a matter of having the utility place the transformer and an electrician to hook it up. Permitting would be a mechanical permit (more like placing an air conditioning unit) rather than a building permit. No excavation, no building contractors, no weather issues, increased reliability. If they need more capacity, drop in another unit.

Very interesting idea!

 

[kort677]

Is it possible that Tesla will be changing to a more pre-built system, building them in a factory and shipping modules to the site? They built the temporary units in the past -- maybe they have a more aesthetically pleasing design that will meet the approval of business owners. Then it is a matter of having the utility place the transformer and an electrician to hook it up. Permitting would be a mechanical permit (more like placing an air conditioning unit) rather than a building permit. No excavation, no building contractors, no weather issues, increased reliability. If they need more capacity, drop in another unit.

that could be true however the units still need a site to be placed on, local permits (site plans/zoning variances) must be obtained and the local power infrastructure needs to be in place. these are things that just don't happen and is why I say that the plans are overly ambitious and more than likely cannot happen in the timeframe that has been offered.

 

[MP3Mike]

I extrapolate that Tesla is trying for 463 new SuperCharger sites in the U.S. alone in 2017

I'm not sure how you came up with that number. Tesla has said that they are going to double the number of Superchargers, i.e. stalls, in 2017; not that they are going to double the number of Supercharger Stations/locations.

There are currently 355 Supercharger locations, so even if they were just doubling the number of locations you are still off by 30%.

And since a number of the additional Superchargers will be adding more stalls to existing locations I expect them to go much faster.

If you look at their blog post again you will see that they are aiming for ~10,000 Supercharges worldwide by the end of the year, and they currently have ~5,400. So they need to add 4,600. If you figure an average site is 8 stalls that would mean they need to add 575 more locations worldwide by the end of the year. If they went with 12 stalls per location they only need to add 383 locations. And since only about half of the locations are in the US that means they need to add between 191 and 287 locations in the US.

 

[NerdUno]

Wouldn't be surprised to see Elon tweeting next spring that the Superchargers will all be in place by the end of 2017, long after Santa has come and gone.

 

[BerTX]

that could be true however the units still need a site to be placed on, local permits (site plans/zoning variances) must be obtained and the local power infrastructure needs to be in place. these are things that just don't happen and is why I say that the plans are overly ambitious and more than likely cannot happen in the timeframe that has been offered.

Agree that the permitting would still be time consuming in many areas. Having a standardized piece of equipment that has been installed in numerous locations across the country has got to make things simpler, though. Remote locations where permitting and inspections are more lax might be finished in days rather than months, and with little labor involved.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Given the recent updated 2017 Charger roll-out map that shows 78 new SuperCharger sites coming to California and another 24 sites coming to Texas, I extrapolate that Tesla is trying for 463 new SuperCharger sites in the U.S. alone in 2017. Given that Tesla has added about 16 sites YTD, this seems like another Elon Musk alternative fact -- which might come true mid to late 2018, rather than 2017 as Tesla 'plans'.

There are 249 days remaining in 2017, including holidays and weekends. 463 new sites will require 2 new adds daily, and quite likely 3 new adds daily in December, given that we are lucky to have a single added SuperCharger site in a week now. Is this realistic? Can they ramp that quickly?

Certainly, earning money (perhaps enough to sustain the network independent of Tesla) with idle fees and post-400-kWhr fees incentivizes things. But, from my personal experience in the cellular phone industry, which ramped mightily in the 1990s, there is no way this Tesla 'doubling' happens in 2017.

Well, first of all, the basic premise is wrong. Tesla post made it clear network doubling is referring to stalls (from ~5000 to ~10000 worldwide), not sites. So you have to examine existing sites that are expanded too.

 

[stopcrazypp]

For anyone interested, I used my webfu and extracted the data from Tesla's map page.

The map as of today shows a total of 702 supercharger sites in the USA, 356 sites of which are marked as currently open (total of 2538 stalls) and 346 of which are coming soon.

The only weird location is Lone Tree-Park Meadows. The map doesn't show the number of stalls, but plugshare says there are 4 stalls driven by temporary portable superchargers. So if you don't count that location you might get 355 sites with 2534 stalls.

 

[TexLaw]

Infrastructure isn't a big deal. The sites aren't out in the middle of the barren Sahara. They are on highways. The lines are there. There's a lot of room in the grid.

Permitting probably takes 21-30 days with most municipalities. Some will happen in 2 weeks, other pains in the butt will take 8.

Construction seems to take 6-12 weeks (just by my off the cuff reckoning from other threads).

Considering that, Tesla has until the end of the Summer to get the sites, crews, and equipment lined up. Yeah, that's pretty ambitious when you're talking about a few hundred sites. Only a handful of which are underway.

In any case, I'm not look for the world to become utopia by New Year's Eve. I'm mighty happy to see that Tesla is working on it, though. Whether it's the end of 2017 or a bit thereafter, bring it on.

 

[stopcrazypp]

In any case, I'm not look for the world to become utopia by New Year's Eve. I'm mighty happy to see that Tesla is working on it, though. Whether it's the end of 2017 or a bit thereafter, bring it on.

I had similar thoughts that I posted elsewhere. I don't think it really matters if they are a little late and it extends into 2018 (the language used on the map allows for that). What's important is that they are working on this and they will still be far ahead of competitors regardless of if it goes into 2018.