Is Tesla trying to do many things at once?

[mbhforum]

I bought my CPO back in January and really do love the car. As I've become a regular here on the forums and I've watched a variety of changes to pricing`configurations-options, lack of AP 2.0 EAP/FSD advancement, missed software delivery dates and empty promises to now releasing the model 3 and now holding an event to show off the Tesla Semi-Truck, I am starting to really question whether Tesla is just moving too fast for it's own good? It seems like a lot of organized chaos and I am starting to really think this success that Tesla has will be sustained once the competition catches up.

I am not even referring to Elon's other missions such as SpaceX and The Boring Company. There is no question Elon is a genius and to me is the closest thing to the late Steve Jobs as we've seen, but how can one person possibly oversee the success of so many different projects, people and company?

I love Tesla but when I saw that Tesla Semi Truck tweet from Elon, It got me thinking.

 

[pete8314]

Yes, for sure, but to a large extent I think that's expected. They're a Valley company first, automotive company second, and the culture reflects that. The challenge they have, as opposed to a software company for example, is that the stuff they're throwing at the wall is all sticking, and all needs to mature rapidly. It's a good, but really difficult problem to have. The finished product (the car) is still software driven, so it can be enhanced/fixed after delivery, but there's inherent risks in that approach.

I have a bit of a Kickstarter and Indigogo habit for gadgets, and without exception, the products that eventually do great are those where all the focus is on the hardware and engineering. The ones that fail look pretty, but are total crap to use. I think Tesla do a great job of engineering the core product, but it's the other stuff they're struggling to scale.

Love 'em though

 

[xav-]

What competition? Did you look at the new Nissan Leaf that they just announced?? It's a freaking joke. The Chevy bolt?? Not much better. There is no competition at all. And even once someone tries to compete it will take many iterations to get it right.

 

[SeminoleFSU]

Yes, for sure, but to a large extent I think that's expected. They're a Valley company first, automotive company second, and the culture reflects that. The challenge they have, as opposed to a software company for example, is that the stuff they're throwing at the wall is all sticking, and all needs to mature rapidly. It's a good, but really difficult problem to have. The finished product (the car) is still software driven, so it can be enhanced/fixed after delivery, but there's inherent risks in that approach.

I have a bit of a Kickstarter and Indigogo habit for gadgets, and without exception, the products that eventually do great are those where all the focus is on the hardware and engineering. The ones that fail look pretty, but are total crap to use. I think Tesla do a great job of engineering the core product, but it's the other stuff they're struggling to scale.

Love 'em though

I wouldn't say everything is sticking.... Battery swap stations? And yes I agree with the OP. They're trying to take on too much. Look at the turnover they've had in leadership? Scary... But then again, Elon has been able to deliver in a general sense on most of the things he's set out to do... Lastly, I'm leery about the fact that Elon said they would be profitable just a few years after founding the compnay and my understanding is they've yet to turn a real profit. The ZeroHedges and SeekingAlphas of the world tear their financials to shreds... With the federal tax credit about to fade I'm wondering how well these vehicles will sell once that's completely gone.

 

[JRP3]

I bought my CPO back in January and really do love the car. As I've become a regular here on the forums and I've watched a variety of changes to pricing`configurations-options, lack of AP 2.0 EAP/FSD advancement, missed software delivery dates and empty promises to now releasing the model 3 and now holding an event to show off the Tesla Semi-Truck, I am starting to really question whether Tesla is just moving too fast for it's own good?

It's pretty much been that way from the beginning, going on 15 years at this point. Seems to be working fairly well

 

[Todd Burch]

Look at the turnover they've had in leadership?

Like Diarmuid, who left after 11 years? That's a hell of a long time to be on the executive team of a hard-driving Silicon Valley company...

Or Deepak? Who left briefly, but then came back within a year?

Wait, what's scary?

Lastly, I'm leery about the fact that Elon said they would be profitable just a few years after founding the compnay and my understanding is they've yet to turn a real profit.

Well they make huge margin on their cars, and profit greatly on them. But since they reinvest that huge profit in gigantic battery factories, R&D, their own in-house vision hardware and software, charging infrastructure, service centers, showrooms, rangers, loaners, in-house manufacturing, orders of magnitude in increased manufacturing capability, worldwide expansion, etc....it's easy to see why there's no *paper* profit.

But hell, given the choice between a company that pockets its profits and one that reinvests it for massive growth and leadership in its sector, I'll take the latter!

 

[xyeahtony]

I wouldn't say everything is sticking.... Battery swap stations? And yes I agree with the OP. They're trying to take on too much. Look at the turnover they've had in leadership? Scary... But then again, Elon has been able to deliver in a general sense on most of the things he's set out to do... Lastly, I'm leery about the fact that Elon said they would be profitable just a few years after founding the compnay and my understanding is they've yet to turn a real profit. The ZeroHedges and SeekingAlphas of the world tear their financials to shreds... With the federal tax credit about to fade I'm wondering how well these vehicles will sell once that's completely gone.

neither has amazon. turning yearly profit is overrated

 

[Tiger]

With the federal tax credit about to fade I'm wondering how well these vehicles will sell once that's completely gone.

The only purpose of tax credit is to make EV prices competetive until economies of scale kick in and prices become competetive on themselves. This is why there is a limit to tax credits. So you can expect prices to simply drop by the amount of tax credits.

Ofcourse psychologically humans see $40k - $7.5k = $32.5k as a better deal than $32.5k because of perceiving MSRP price as indicator of quality/superiority.

 

[SeminoleFSU]

Like Diarmuid, who left after 11 years? That's a hell of a long time to be on the executive team of a hard-driving Silicon Valley company...

Or Deepak? Who left briefly, but then came back within a year?

Wait, what's scary?



Well they make huge margin on their cars, and profit greatly on them. But since they reinvest that huge profit in gigantic battery factories, R&D, their own in-house vision hardware and software, charging infrastructure, service centers, showrooms, rangers, loaners, in-house manufacturing, orders of magnitude in increased manufacturing capability, worldwide expansion, etc....it's easy to see why there's no *paper* profit.

But hell, given the choice between a company that pockets its profits and one that reinvests it for massive growth and leadership in its sector, I'll take the latter!

There's been a lot more folks who've left than just one guy... info easily available. Will it impact their ability to execute? I have no idea, but whenever you see that amount of turnover at high levels it should be a caution flag. As for profit... a company can not exist for very long racking up debt year after year.. at some point that needle needs to move the other way. This is simple economics. I want Telsa to survive. I don't want to drive any other car.... but that doesn't change that companies don't survive long term if they can't eventually balance their books.

 

[SeminoleFSU]

neither has amazon. turning yearly profit is overrated

LOL. until it's not

 

[SeminoleFSU]

The only purpose of tax credit is to make EV prices competetive until economies of scale kick in and prices become competetive on themselves. This is why there is a limit to tax credits. So you can expect prices to simply drop by the amount of tax credits.

Ofcourse psychologically humans see $40k - $7.5k = $32.5k as a better deal than $32.5k because of perceiving MSRP price as indicator of quality/superiority.

It remains to be seen if they can maintain their profit/unit targets without these credits. I hope they can.