What were the initial estimates for steady state Model S demand back in 2012? I recall something close to 20k a year, but I could be wrong. This year there will be roughly 50k Model S deliveries, but that doesn't even represent steady state. Sales have yet to begin in South Korea, Mexico, and the Middle East. Sales have just now started to turn around in China, the biggest auto market in the world, it is in the very first innings there. Europe is gaining traction. Even the US, the Model S's most mature market, outside of CA there is plenty of market penetration to be had. And even CA is still growing. The point is that it seems to me the Model S's steady state demand is well above 50k a year. How does this compare to Tesla's own initial projections? Of course none of this is a secret. How well the Model S has been received is baked into the stock. The other big piece that's baked in is Model 3 sales in 2020. Specifically, the 500k number that is brought up anytime people talk about projections, of which 350k should be Model 3s if you assume 75k in Model S and X each. But could this number be wrong? Again, I don't quite recall initial estimates for an end state Model S demand, either from Tesla internally or just the general feel from the investment community. But I doubt the number was substantially higher than 50k like it potentially has turned out to be. The 500k number comes from Tesla's ability to produce cars given the restraints of the NUMMI factory and Gigafactory 1 at fully operational. But what if after the March reveal, preorders exceed expectations? What if preorders hit 500k in a few months? Or even higher? Once the Model 3 goes into production, it would take years to clear the backlog. Would Tesla really stand idly by? No. The reason why it is named Gigafactory 1 is because it is already assumed that there will be many gigafactories in the future. The reason they are not yet being built is because 1. Future demand is still uncertain 2. Tesla lacks the capital. But if Model 3 preorders far exceeds expectations, it will give visibility into future demand. Then they can easily raise capital with investors eager to give them money. Most financial models are projecting around 500k in production in 2020. However, if preorders for Model 3 exceed expectations, much like how Model S end state demand exceed initial projections, multiple assembly and battery factories could be brought online by 2020. Those financial models would then need to be revised, not in 2020, but in 2016 once we see preorder levels.