Is Tesla's "End of 2014" Supercharger map possible?

[Larry Chanin]

Looks like 17 superchargers have opened out of the 102 that remained unopened when I started this thread. That is 16.6% of the work done using 43.6% of the time available since I started the thread...

Works out to needing an opening every weekday until the end of the year to finish the 2014 map in 2014. As much as I love Tesla, that's just not going to happen.

Yes, not much chance.

For Florida your updated map is missing a red dot for the Lake City Supercharger that went operational, and it is missing two "Coming Soon" dots. That leaves 7 dots for Florida that would have to be completed by year-end. We are virtually certain that two of the 7 will be completed. One is having a planning meeting later this month. It is conceivable it could be done by year-end. The rest are off our radar and we have no information regarding any progress.

Larry

 

[wk057]

I actually didn't update the image just added the new info.

 

[iffatall]

I guess everyone agrees the planned number cannot be reached. But what do you guys think is a reachable number? Half of the remaining? Quarter? I guess there is a reason the 2015 map does not have that many new ones :tongue:

 

[wk057]

Just linear extrapolation would say about 35%.

Extrapolated further that puts completion of the 2014 map sometime around August 2015.

 

[GreenT]

It's only September 4!
That's 1/3rd of the year still to go.

 

[wk057]

Tesla definitely seems more focused on roll out of the supercharger network outside North America.... which probably explains the lag in buildout.... but doesn't make me feel better about it.

- - - Updated - - -

It's only September 4!
That's 1/3rd of the year still to go.

They'd have to nearly double the number of USA superchargers in that time frame. Pretty much impossible IMO.

If somehow they manage a miracle and pull it off I will be absolutely amazed... but it's not going to happen.

 

[mochouinard]

You got permit, construction and installation.

The part that take time is permit and construction. Those can be done by people external to Tesla and can scale very quickly. Every city in the world have crew that can do this at the exact same time. Of course there a question of the supercharger equipment it self ! Maybe it true lot have been going out to international location. I'm hoping that if they did the hard physical work, the final part of install could be done pretty quickly across north america.

What interesting is that Tesla use the same charger used inside the Tesla car, but just use +12 of them per 2 stall (10kW * 12 = 120kW) ! So they can scale production pretty quickly on those. Also actual car production stopped for 2 week, so that mean if they build 800 car per week, they have already 133 extra supercharging station charger ready if they didn't slow down the production. Now how much actual housing and rest of the hardware does it take them to make, I got no idea !

So apart from the making of the SuperCharger itself, they could build them in every city in the world in 2014 ! Only require to drop in the charger afterward !

So it possible to make that 2014 map true... It could be if they got the permit and construction started AND can physically produce the charger housing and extra components fast enough.

I'm personally a little more pissed about the lack of super charger in Canada. And I don't want a map that look like the US (waste of $ since most our land is inhabited) But in eastern Canada, we would need an additional 18 SC in eastern canada to make lot of people happy and make vacation for Canadian and American much quicker !

 

[iffatall]

One fine morning, the Coming Soon, 2014, 2015 tabs will change to Coming Soon, Spring 2015, Summer 2015, End of 2015 - we will make some noise here, and then everyone will go back to betting on when six will be out.

 

[PhilBa]

It's so funny, even as recently as a week ago, I was saying "no way, not even close" and getting starry eyed arguments about how this is Tesla and they can do it. My guess is about 145-150 in NA. That's actually pretty good but the problem with over promising is that all the good that does get done doesn't seem to count by those with dashed hopes.

Tesla, breeding a new generation of discontented owners, one coming soon map at a time.

For the record, I'm just happy to see that they are still building them in North America, even if it is at the slowest pace since late spring 2013.

 

[internauts]

I found this thread because I am looking for more certain estimates of a couple supercharges needed to be able to drive from Seattle to visit my family in Boise. This thread suggests I should not be making any plans based on dots that say 2015. I'll still be interested in any source that someone knows to provide a link here.

 

[jkirkebo]

You got permit, construction and installation.
What interesting is that Tesla use the same charger used inside the Tesla car, but just use +12 of them per 2 stall (10kW * 12 = 120kW) !

The new EU ones have 15 chargers each. Max ~120kW per car, so aleays at least 30kW available.

 

[Lump]

I found this thread because I am looking for more certain estimates of a couple supercharges needed to be able to drive from Seattle to visit my family in Boise. This thread suggests I should not be making any plans based on dots that say 2015. I'll still be interested in any source that someone knows to provide a link here.

From the Supercharger in Ellendburg Wa. to Boise its 400 miles but from The Dalles, OR. Supercharger its 345 miles so while not ideal there are a few private residents, a casino etc... you can use until Superchargers are built PlugShare - EV Charging Station Map - Find a place to charge your car!

Many use this site for Supercharging openings, shows permiting & construction, Superchargers

 

[Tyl]

My dream.....

Elon to crew, "Make it so."

That said....

I do think Tesla will have the 83 remaining supercharging sites up and running by the end of the year. I also think the 2015 map dots will be completed by the end of 2015 with a few extras we don't know about yet.

JBS has stated that they will continue to fill in areas even after that. Placing superchargers around the country will continue for some time. Once the Model 3 is being produced and sold superchargers will be ubiquitously everywhere.

Tesla is long term. Very long term.

 

[Cottonwood]

My dream.....

Elon to crew, "Make it so."

That said....

I do think Tesla will have the 83 remaining supercharging sites up and running by the end of the year. I also think the 2015 map dots will be completed by the end of 2015 with a few extras we don't know about yet.
...

I like the "make it so" idea, but I'm not sure it will happen.

Where did the 83 number come from? See the original post in this thread and 100th Supercharger! - 2014 Count. If you take the current North American count as 112, including Chattanooga, then 211 minus 112 is 99 Superchargers to go in North America. That is 99 Superchargers to go live in North America in the 115 days left this year.

I'd love to see the Tesla team and their contractors "make it so" at Elon's direction, but getting 99 Superchargers live and charging, in 115 days seems like a very, very long shot to me.

 

[wk057]

USA... wasn't counting those dang Canadian ones...

 

[tezco]

Looks like about 60 opened so far in the US in 2014 per the Wiki. Another 83 seems unlikely. It also looks like quite a few opened in January, many of which probably were carry-overs from 2013. (And only about 6 opened in August.)

 

[Tyl]

Cottonwood... I came up with the 83 number by doing an overlay of the current Tesla supercharger N America (U.S.) map and the 'end' 2014 map. My count was 85 then and now reduced to 83. I did it rather quickly to get a number that Tesla was showing via their map. So as those end 2014 dots turn red I reduce the number by one.

Not very scientific, I know, It just worked for me as their projection!

I DO think Tesla will get 'r' done!

 

[detlefo]

I've never viewed the future maps as "cast in stone" more as a framework. Locations are pretty vague and in some cases unrealistic. For example two chargers to get across Nevada will never work, even with the addition of the Truckee SC, which is up and running and was never on any future supercharger map. In the original plan the 4 corners area was high and dry, but then Farmington NM unexpectedly popped up. I have no idea of how many chargers now exist that were not in the original plan, but, I suspect there are others. Having gone through years with my LEAF with the promise of ChaDeMo chargers unfullfilled in CA I think that Tesla is doing an incredible job with with its build out and am confident that they will get it right. imho

 

[dhanson865]

One fine morning, the Coming Soon, 2014, 2015 tabs will change to Coming Soon, Spring 2015, Summer 2015, End of 2015 - we will make some noise here, and then everyone will go back to betting on when six will be out.

Let me be the first to say 6 came out already. See Firmware 6.0

 

[iffatall]

Let me be the first to say 6 came out already. See Firmware 6.0

ha ha