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Is the Model S a car for 10+ years?

Discussion in 'Model S' started by Wild Weasel, Jun 18, 2017.

  1. Wild Weasel

    Wild Weasel Member

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    In my actual finding process for a new car in 2018 the Model S is actual the favorite car. It is not clear at the moment if it will be the 75D or 100D but I do not need to decide this now. Because I need the car between June and July 2018 I have some spare time.
    To be honest in a normal case I would not spend that huge amount of money to a car and the size is also not the perfect one for central Europe but okay. This will not be the most important fact at the end.

    But I am a litte bit nervous about the kind how Tesla is doing their business. Maybe US citizens do not care about such kind of politics but for me I like to have a business partner I can trust. As my forme research shows Tesla seems to be a company that changes products, terms of contracts and software in a way that is just fine for them. As customer you have to accept it and like at Apple most of Tesla guys are just happy about it. But if I decide to pay 100.000+ euros for a Model S I want to drive it for mere than just 4 or 5 years. It should last for 10 to 15 years minimum.
    It has a aluminum bodywork, no complicate engine components but a lot of electronics... and that causes me headache. In the US the Model S is on Market since 2012, so there should be some experience with the car. Mechanical problem should not be the biggest problem I guess.

    But how do you think will be the software support? Will Tesla support the Model S also in 2030 or will be a point where you have to buy a new car because Tesla stops supporting the car and shuts down the servers for the old Model S? Because Tesla also has to get money.. for me it is a clear thing that a product that is too good you have no more customs. Making the "perfect" car makes people not buying a new one every few year, so less money at the end....

    What is you opinion? Is a Tesla also a car that is built for longer use or should it be returned before or at the age of 8 when the warranty has ended because then the full risc geos to the customer and the car can fall appart? Or should I buy a conventional car and look for a electric version again in 10 years?

    PS: No, I do not belive that Tesla or Elon Musk is a kind of Messiah :p
     
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  2. nico180

    nico180 Serge

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    My Nokia phones still work, any so should an ICE vehicle in 10 years. But why would a Tesla be different?
     
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  3. BluestarE3

    BluestarE3 Active Member

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    I've kept most of my cars for at least ten years. I've had my current car for over 16 years. I intend to keep my Model 3 for a similar amount of time.
     
  4. bonaire

    bonaire Active Member

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    If worried, what about considering a used one? If they are to last 10+ years, buying a lower-mileage 2-year old model in 2018 might be a lower-cost solution and you get 8 more years from there. Many thousand 2-year leases will be returned by Sept 2018 (in the USA) and the price pressure of Model 3 against the Model S could lead to some price depreciation.

    Your guess is as good as mine as to what the 2030 time frame holds. I don't think anyone can truly know the possibilities.

    You need to consider all of your needs. Economics, charging locations, price of electricity over petrol, company strength, your own parking and driving locations (narrow streets? parking space size? etc.) One Model S owner told me "you don't buy a Tesla to be green or to save money - you do it for the fun."
     
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  5. J1mbo

    J1mbo Member

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    Mechanically, the car still has steering, suspension, brakes, powered windows, airbags, etc. which are just as likely to go wrong as they would do on the other cars that use the exact same components from the exact same suppliers.

    IMO, ten years should be no issue as long as you look after it and keep it serviced. And don't get tempted by the huge amount of innovation that will happen in that ti.e as more OEMs bring out EVs with better batteries and better autonomy...
     
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  6. tomas

    tomas Traded in 9 rep bars for M3, used to be somebody!

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    I'm keeping it 10 or more. Already at 4.5 years and it is like new. I guess with any car there is risk of expensive component going bad post warranty. Zero risk re software in my book. Worst case is Tesla stops providing new releases. I guess biggest risk is maybe LTE becomes obsolete or maybe maps metadata. But car would still run. I just don't see Tesla stopping support for a car that will have sold at least 500k units.
     
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  7. nagypite

    nagypite Member

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    Windows 7 was released to manufacturing on July 22, 2009. Microsoft ended mainstream support for Windows 7 on January 13, 2015
     
  8. jareade

    jareade Member

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    We came from a history of Volvos (still have two of them) and each of the first two we had for over ten years. We put a lot of miles on our cars and had good luck with the durability of our Volvos. But we made the switch over to Tesla and I can't see ever going back. The one big benefit is that our Tesla will continue to improve while we own the car via the over the air updates. Once we bought our Volvos, the cars never got better or smarter. Our Tesla Model S is already infinitely smarter today than when we bought it. And it will continue to become smarter and better. But that doesn't mean Tesla won't continue to enhance the car (some of which may be software driven, but some may be hardware driven - and if hardware driven, we likely won't be able to upgrade). With Tesla, it's almost impossible to have the latest and greatest - at least for any appreciable amount of time - but I look at that as a good thing. The company will keep innovating and getting better.

    I fully expect to get at least 10 years of ownership out of my Model S. But I also anticipate I'll be adding to the stable of Teslas as time goes on as well! I say make the plunge - you won't regret it (you'll only regret that you waited so long)!
     
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  9. tomas

    tomas Traded in 9 rep bars for M3, used to be somebody!

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    IRRELEVANT. A PC OS is not a car. Microsoft provided upgrade path anyway.
     
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  10. tomas

    tomas Traded in 9 rep bars for M3, used to be somebody!

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    Amen! Anyone asks me if I regret missing out on D or AP, my response is I got to drive the car for 2+ years before that was available.
     
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  11. Don85D

    Don85D Member

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    I have kept ICE vehicles in daily service for 25 years and with ruggedized electronics for automotive use I expect the same or more for an EV. Besides, we have a solar array that should power our 85D for the next 30 years of free driving so I am committed to an EV.

    Like most technology you need to expect that ...'Hardware breaks, SW has bugs and people make mistakes'.... The issue then is how quickly you can get the system back in service to maintain availability targets. I expect that our 85D will provide 30 years of service and I can live without the latest gadgets that entice new buyers. If my plan works out, this will be our last car.

    Just another viewpoint for your consideration.
     
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  12. dhrivnak

    dhrivnak Active Member

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    My 1.5 Tesla Roadster is driving just fine after 9 1/2 years. I still have the original battery and Power Electronics Module. And not a speck of rust.
     
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  13. gaswalla

    gaswalla P4201/85/airsusp/pano/19i

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    With the 8 year unlimited battery and power train warranty, definitely is an '8 year car'
     
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  14. cab

    cab Member

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    The biggest issue isn't likely mechanical. Indeed, I am maintaining a fleet of 10+ year old cars for my adult children and at least half of the repair points I've encountered over the last year (and there have been a LOT) don't even exist on a Tesla (i.e. no possibility of slipped timing belt to slip, no valve cover gaskets to leak, no camshaft position sensor to go out, etc.). The stuff that does exist, like suspension, is all pretty starightforward. Indeed, the one thing I have come to sort of hate on regular ICE vehicles as they age is the way the engine heat slowly bakes EVERYTHING underhood. All of the plastic connectors get crazy brittle and half of them break the first time you touch them once vehicles start gettting up there in age and then you get the inevitable oil (and other fluids) leak that, if not detected quickly, means everything starts to get "coated", etc.

    As to the tech, well most cars don't get updates of any kind. I suspect even Tesla will stop updating the Model S UI soon enough with any material updates for "classic" owners...the oft promised, but forever delayed Linux kernel and browser update might be the last hurrah for classic owners...
     
  15. lance

    lance Member

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    I'm in for 6.5 more years on my 2013 and out of warranty because I drive so much more in the S than in any other car I've ever owned. Suspension, bearings and tie-rods do need service and I'm on my fourth windshield. Also been on a loaner battery for a few months as mine inexplicably died with 76% state of charge. Tesla has been amazing every step of the way. I don't like spending big money on cars but I have no buyers-remorse on this one.
     
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  16. Wild Weasel

    Wild Weasel Member

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    That sounds not that bad at all. Thanks for the positive replies. Just was thinking of spare parts and so on. Has someone of you tried to get a new Radeon 9000 Series GPU? Or even a 7 year old GPU card for your PC? Will Tesla provide spare parts like the big main screen also 2030? I know from Mercedes Benz you get new parts even 20 or more years late without a problem, will this be the same with the Model S?
     
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  17. TexasEV

    TexasEV Well-Known Member

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    How can anyone answer that question? Even if someone gave you an answer, why would you believe it? As Yogi Berra, the great American philosopher, said "it's difficult to make predictions, especially about the future."

    There are now enough Teslas on the road that there will be a market for parts to repair old ones. If a Tesla stops serving that market, someone else will.

    Stop worrying and start enjoying the car.
     
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  18. vgrinshpun

    vgrinshpun Supporting Member

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    I have my P85+ for almost four years and 78,000 miles, and don't see any reason not to expect Teslas to last 10+ years. My battery degraded about 4.5%, 2.5% of them in the first year (20,000 miles), with no noticeable degradation in the last year or so. There were few issues, as with any car in the first year of the production, but service has been very good, better than for any other car I've owned. After almost four years the car feels very tight and solid, and drives like new.

    After driving electric for these four years I absolutely can't stand getting behind the wheel of any ICE car, even performance ones. The driving experience is so unrefined and retarded! With the emissions requirements getting tighter and quantity of pegs in transmissions going up, I expect this difference to become more and more prominent.

    You've just asked a very prudent question, but I am wondering if another very prudent question ever came to your mind: how do you think you'll feel in the second part of the 10+ years you plan on keeping your cars driving an ICE car? If you think that I am off with the timeframe here, just think how long it took smart phones to take over the "dumb" cell phones... Have you considered that switchover to electric propulsion will likely have these consequences:
    • The retained value of ICE cars will plummet
    • Due to reduced demand for gasoline gas stations will become much more sparsely located and range anxiety will be more likely driving ICE cars than EVs
    • With the growing concern about pollution and much improved availability of EVs, gasoline will likely to be taxed much more heavily, especially in Europe, so the cost will go up
    • There will likely be progressively tighter limitations on driving ICE cars in large European cities
    • There will be virtual stop of young people going into the service of the ICE cars, as by this time it will be evident that this will become an obsolete skill in the near future. So any engine/transmission and associated component repair will likely become more expensive and harder to get
    • With the ICE technology essentially dying out, I would not bet on parts being readily available, or cheap
    IMO, for a person considering holding onto their cars for 10+ years going with an ICE car is a riskier proposition than getting a Tesla...
     
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  19. Az_Rael

    Az_Rael Supporting Member

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    Some of the features the Model S uses are dependent on servers on Teslas side to operate. Some of the folks who have refused updates have already encountered this. So if Tesla does sunset pre-AP cars and stops updating them at some point they may lose access to voice commands, streaming services, LTE, maps, etc.

    Sure, the cars will still run, but unlike an ICE, you might lose features over time.


    Also, parts will surely become a problem over the long haul. The massive numbers of changes that are made each year adds to that problem. That will also make it difficult for after market folks to jump in. For example, my seats aren't made anymore (performance black leather). If I needed to replace one for whatever reason (vs re-upholstering it), out of my warranty period, I expect that to be difficult. Changing the seats to Next Gen or the newest ones requires a software update to the airbag deployment programming, so an aftermarket seat vendor would also have to provide software support somehow.
     
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  20. Xenoilphobe

    Xenoilphobe Active Member

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    I have had 3 Model S's: a July 2013 build - sold with 50K Miles, a P85+ with almost 60K Miles (my favorite by Model by far) , and a 90D with 10K miles, none of these cars have ever had a significant issue that left me on the side of the road - not a single flat tire, not a dead battery, never a failed start. The only reason we got the 2016 90D was to replace the 2013 P85 was to get autopilot for my wife, frankly if the finances could have supported it we would have kept it for our teenage kids due to the safety of the car - however I couldn't justify the expense knowing that it was an extravagant car for a teen to drive - and we ended up selling it to private party. All services were completed by Tesla and they did upgrade some components in the 2013 (drivetrain I think), but I never would have known as I got the car back same day delivered to my office. Interesting to note that only one door handle has ever failed and it was the LED light in the handle - not the handle itself.

    I believe this is a 10 year car and fully expect to keep my P85+ as a classic, especially if the prices keep going up - I wanted a P100D, but the pricing has gotten ludicrous - with a $42,000 USD price delta for 1.5 seconds of faster 0-60 over the 100D, P85+, P85, I will keep mine.

    I especially like the over the air updates - it feels like Christmas morning in a childish way.

    Most of my gripes have to do with the audio system and lack of quality in the audio streams - I would pay extra for a HD audio in this car and suffer through the horrible Slacker quality. I tried the USB stick and while it sounds better, the user interface reminds me that apple has mastered this. I spent money upgrading the speakers and car AMP - but it still doesn't address the horrible quality audio streams - I'm working to get a remote DAC integrated and researching my options now.

    My second largest gripe - no trailer hitch - I added one to every one of our Model S's for our bike racks and to keep messy stuff out of the car.
     
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