Is the Model S a car for 10+ years?

[Don85D]

Your gripe about poor audio quality is probably correct but I don't notice it as my personal hearing frequency response is seriously degraded by time. Our teenaged grandchildren can still find their favourite music when they ride with us which must have sufficient quality given that they sing along.

I agree that Tesla approval to mount a hitch would be nice but I'll just wait for the warranty to end and my 25 year old pickup truck to be taken to the scrap yard. The utility of a truck hasn't been met yet by an EV but I'm hoping it will.

 

[ForeverFree]

In my actual finding process for a new car in 2018 the Model S is actual the favorite car. It is not clear at the moment if it will be the 75D or 100D but I do not need to decide this now. Because I need the car between June and July 2018 I have some spare time.
To be honest in a normal case I would not spend that huge amount of money to a car and the size is also not the perfect one for central Europe but okay. This will not be the most important fact at the end.

But I am a litte bit nervous about the kind how Tesla is doing their business. Maybe US citizens do not care about such kind of politics but for me I like to have a business partner I can trust. As my forme research shows Tesla seems to be a company that changes products, terms of contracts and software in a way that is just fine for them. As customer you have to accept it and like at Apple most of Tesla guys are just happy about it. But if I decide to pay 100.000+ euros for a Model S I want to drive it for mere than just 4 or 5 years. It should last for 10 to 15 years minimum.
It has a aluminum bodywork, no complicate engine components but a lot of electronics... and that causes me headache. In the US the Model S is on Market since 2012, so there should be some experience with the car. Mechanical problem should not be the biggest problem I guess.

But how do you think will be the software support? Will Tesla support the Model S also in 2030 or will be a point where you have to buy a new car because Tesla stops supporting the car and shuts down the servers for the old Model S? Because Tesla also has to get money.. for me it is a clear thing that a product that is too good you have no more customs. Making the "perfect" car makes people not buying a new one every few year, so less money at the end....

What is you opinion? Is a Tesla also a car that is built for longer use or should it be returned before or at the age of 8 when the warranty has ended because then the full risc geos to the customer and the car can fall appart? Or should I buy a conventional car and look for a electric version again in 10 years?

PS: No, I do not belive that Tesla or Elon Musk is a kind of Messiah

Might the Model 3 be a more useful size for European driving, especially in cities?

 

[Wild Weasel]

Sure it will be. But not much. As far I have seen until now the Model 3 seems to be just a few cm shorter than the S. Much more problems you get with the Model X... Parking fields are about 2,3 to 2,5m wide.. with a car that has 2,3m you will not be able to get in again if you are lucky. And if you are in the perfect parking house without mobile connections... be happy

But the Model S would fit. Not perfect at all, but it would fit most places around. The only bad thing on Tesla I see so far is the need to go backwards for charging. We have a lot of places here where this is no option. You would have to drive the wrong way through the one way to get the 270 degree turn.. all other cars have the connector in the front or the first half of the car.. Tesla not. But this points are things I can live with.
Just do not want a car that gets switched off by the producer to force me being a new one. But to be honest, in 8 years Tesla will not be the only company that delivers useable electric cars, so they will have to move on. All the great things the Model S had in 2012 are not longer that unique in 2020.
But actual, I am collecting informations, meanings and all the stuff I can get

 

[xyeahtony]

The short answer to the OP is yes. The car will last 10+ years. As for if software updates will continue after 10 years, nobody knows. But then again, after that long of a period how many more updates can you really be expecting?

Heck there are some people here still running v7.0.

 

[xav-]

OP.. sounds like you are someone who is concerned at spending 6 figures on a car. You try to justify it by using the "I will just keep it forever" theory.

I know you because I have been there myself and I have seen many in this category. If you expect the model s to be as reliable as say a Japanese or even a French car you are mistaken.

It is not to say that the model s is not reliable. It is as reliable if not more reliable as a comparable car (e.g S class or 7 series). Expect the car to have problems and importantly expect problems to be very expensive to fix past the warranty period.

My recommandation to you is to buy a used model s a year from now. If you buy brand new I would recommend the model X because there is just no competition for it. The model S will face competition by the model 3. A brand new model x will retain its value a lot better than a brand new model S (for the record I prefer the model S over the model X)

Here is the US we are witnessing a used price crash for the model S. Cars that were selling for $52k last year are selling for $35k now. I expect in 2018 that we will see 3 year old model S with 40k miles or less for sale at $40k or less and those will come with autopilot (AP1)

Why coming used car price for model S?
- Model 3
- massive number of returns from leases starting next year (affecting all brands) - Morgan Stanley predicts up to 50 percent crash in used car prices
- model X

 

[slipnslider]

My Nokia phones still work, any so should an ICE vehicle in 10 years. But why would a Tesla be different?

Because teslas run off an ipad. Have you ever tried to use a 10 year old ipad?
Tech companies stop supporting old hardware becuause they want you to buy new hardware. They make the old software run slower and slower until you can't take it anymore and open your wallet back up for a replacement.

 

[Testwa]

At some point in time it will not be efficient for Tesla to put a lot of effort of old Tesla models (like for every other manufacturer). But at least Tesla is a manufacturer that provides Software updates. And as Tesla seems to use pretty much the same software for Tesla S and X there is probably a good chance that older Model S will still be supported and updated for quite a while. But probably Autopilot 1.0 features will not be enhanced any further in a few years. But at that time it should have reached a reasonable maturity and have gotten better over time. The same for Autopilot 2.0 once Autopilot 3.0 is in the market. I don't think we will see major software updates in 2030 for Teslas produced before 2020. A security patch in best case.
There are a few things I am worried a little bit for usage beyond 10 years:

1. Users here have proven that degradation over charging cycles is not bad at all but the batteries are aging also when not being used. And there were some articles that Tesla batteries are made for a lifetime of around 10 years. So I guess there are some higher probability that the battery will degrade more once it is getting old even without having a high mileage on the car.
   I observe this with some of my camera batteries: they work great for the first few years but then they are aging rapidly and loosing capacity quickly.
   But then on the other hand I think we don't need to worry about this to much because in 10 years time the prices for batteries (and hopefully replacement batteries as well) should have come down even further so that a replacement might be a reasonable maintenance.
2. Supercharger: by introducing faster charging over time Tesla might need to change their supercharger in a way that they are not compatible anymore with the current generation. So what might happen is that at the supercharger stations there will be an old generation for older models and the next generation for newer models. Over time Tesla would reduce the amount of older generation and increase the amount of newer generation, meaning in 2030 there might be only a few supercharger left that work with old cars and e.g. having impact on the waiting queue and making longer roadtrips less convenient than today.
3. So far most of the issues are handled within the warranty. Therefore the costs for some of the repairs are unknown to the consumer. So the maintenance or repair costs might be pretty high, e.g. replacing the smart air suspension, brakes or axles or whatever will probably range on Mercedes S-class price level rather than on VW Golf/Passat level.

 

[berkeley_ecar]

I sold my 31-year-old Volvo 740 station wagon to get my Tesla S. My 1986 model was the last one they sold without air bags and without anti-lock braking. I was determined to get an electric car for environmental reasons, the only question was which one (I had a deposit down on an Aptera nearly 10 years ago). Hanging on to cars for as long as possible is environmentally appropriate, due to the embodied energy in manufactured items. I'm not at all into the American "disposable culture." However, it had become impossible to get some replacement parts for the 740 -- and when I could not get a replacement for my failed driver-side windshield visor (except for very tatty junk-yard parts), I decided it was time to finally move on.

We are poised at a time of disruption in the auto market, and although Tesla may fail as a firm, I think it unlikely. It is perhaps more likely that we will see consolidation and disappearance of many older firms, as sales decline due to economic pressure as some of the currently "externalized" costs of the ICE model become de-externallized, millenials turn away from the expensive traditional model of individual car ownership, and who knows what other developing trends. The expanding markets in China and India are likely to rely more heavily on EVs than ICE vehicles. The EV is here to stay, and Tesla is well placed to remain a prominent player in the field.

Two trends which the discussion has overlooked thus far:

1) Technology for one of the vehicles most expensive components, the battery, is evolving. As just one example: if UT's John Goodenough's sodium-glass battery pans out, we will have non-flammable batteries that are cheaper, charge faster, and have higher energy density (I'll be able to upgrade my S 90D to an S 270D, come the day I need to replace the battery at my own expense -- and likely at far lower cost than if I purchased a battery today).

2) There are already after-market third-party groups supporting Tesla vehicles (for both hardware and software issues, especially in the salvage market), and this sort of activity will only expand as the number of vehicles increases. It is likely in Tesla's own interest to encourage such activity, especially as it pulls back from support of older vehicles in future.

I have every confidence that my model S will be the last vehicle I own (barring an accident). Will it always be one of the most trendy or fashionable cars on the road? No. Will it still be safe, comfortable, economically viable, and useful for 10+ years? Yes. I'm hoping for 31. Enjoy your Model S, Wild Weasel!

 

[slipnslider]

there is probably a good chance that older Model S will still be supported and updated for quite a while.

But how long is "quite a while?" 5 years? 10 years? 20? 50? Shouldn't tesla be telling people how long their 100k purchases will be supported?
There are 60 year old classic cars that are still on the road, and can be kept running by people with basic abilities.
That won't happen with teslas. The tech will get laggier and buggier til it's no longer cost effective to troubleshoot and repair. Teslas are meant to be disposed of and replaced. Terrible for the environment, and totally antithetical to the company's mission statement of environmental preservation.

 

[tomas]

But how long is "quite a while?" 5 years? 10 years? 20? 50? Shouldn't tesla be telling people how long their 100k purchases will be supported?
There are 60 year old classic cars that are still on the road, and can be kept running by people with basic abilities.
That won't happen with teslas. The tech will get laggier and buggier til it's no longer cost effective to troubleshoot and repair. Teslas are meant to be disposed of and replaced. Terrible for the environment, and totally antithetical to the company's mission statement of environmental preservation.

Not just Tesla, but all modern cars are computer controlled. So why do you single out Tesla? And what is your basis for laggier and buggier? My experience is any software release does not get buggier or less buggy over time. It has the bugs it has. And if it is stable enough to work for 10 years, why can't it work for another 10? And another? I project today's model S will be getting software updates for 10 more years, though diminishing new functionality. Then it will continue to function as long as the mechanicals do. Though by that time you may need a radio update to LTE successor.

 

[Viking1]

I usually keep my cars 10+ years. However, my Tesla may be different. A typical ICE car makes small increment changes over the years. However, I think with the EV we could see some rapid (< 5 years) improvements in battery range and charging speed, not to mention self driving. So I'll take a wait and see approach. I've just had my MS for 6 months. At the 4 year mark I'll consider what to do. If I keep it I'll reconsider at 8 years.

 

[Don85D]

Not just Tesla, but all modern cars are computer controlled. So why do you single out Tesla? And what is your basis for laggier and buggier? My experience is any software release does not get buggier or less buggy over time. It has the bugs it has. And if it is stable enough to work for 10 years, why can't it work for another 10? And another? I project today's model S will be getting software updates for 10 more years, though diminishing new functionality. Then it will continue to function as long as the mechanicals do. Though by that time you may need a radio update to LTE successor.

My understanding is that there are two operating systems in the Tesla. One runs the basic car and it is stable in my opinion so this function should not become slower and buggier with huge code additions. The second operating system is indeed much like an iPad and could be prone to demand for more and more new gadgets that degrade the system. Hopefully Tesla will stop adding new function before this degradation point is reached or at least allow users to stay back levelled.

I'm not worried that the car will become unusable like other portable computing devices.

 

[Buster1]

My primitive research as I get ready to buy a Tesla, shows that even just playing the "odds game" you are apt to do better with a Tesla.

What I mean, is that the odds of the car lasting longer or collecting more miles before failure(s) are lower in an EV than an ICE. There are simply less moving parts and "mechanical" items to fail.

I'm unsure about the software aspect over time, but I believe that the hardware on a Tesla can and will outlast an ICE car of similar pedigree.

 

[Sparky]

I sold my 31-year-old Volvo 740 station wagon to get my Tesla S. My 1986 model was the last one they sold without air bags and without anti-lock braking. I was determined to get an electric car for environmental reasons, the only question was which one (I had a deposit down on an Aptera nearly 10 years ago). Hanging on to cars for as long as possible is environmentally appropriate, due to the embodied energy in manufactured items. I'm not at all into the American "disposable culture." However, it had become impossible to get some replacement parts for the 740 -- and when I could not get a replacement for my failed driver-side windshield visor (except for very tatty junk-yard parts), I decided it was time to finally move on.

We are poised at a time of disruption in the auto market, and although Tesla may fail as a firm, I think it unlikely. It is perhaps more likely that we will see consolidation and disappearance of many older firms, as sales decline due to economic pressure as some of the currently "externalized" costs of the ICE model become de-externallized, millenials turn away from the expensive traditional model of individual car ownership, and who knows what other developing trends. The expanding markets in China and India are likely to rely more heavily on EVs than ICE vehicles. The EV is here to stay, and Tesla is well placed to remain a prominent player in the field.

Two trends which the discussion has overlooked thus far:

1) Technology for one of the vehicles most expensive components, the battery, is evolving. As just one example: if UT's John Goodenough's sodium-glass battery pans out, we will have non-flammable batteries that are cheaper, charge faster, and have higher energy density (I'll be able to upgrade my S 90D to an S 270D, come the day I need to replace the battery at my own expense -- and likely at far lower cost than if I purchased a battery today).

2) There are already after-market third-party groups supporting Tesla vehicles (for both hardware and software issues, especially in the salvage market), and this sort of activity will only expand as the number of vehicles increases. It is likely in Tesla's own interest to encourage such activity, especially as it pulls back from support of older vehicles in future.

I have every confidence that my model S will be the last vehicle I own (barring an accident). Will it always be one of the most trendy or fashionable cars on the road? No. Will it still be safe, comfortable, economically viable, and useful for 10+ years? Yes. I'm hoping for 31. Enjoy your Model S, Wild Weasel!

Very good points and yet I disagree (and am also a former Aptera res holder!).
I usually drive my cars for 10 yrs or more; 6.5 yr old LEAF and 4+ year old Models S (which I love).
We are at an inflection point in car culture, tech, and economics. FSD, connectivity, AI architectures, car-sharing, carbon pricing will radically alter the auto landscape in a short time.
I see no reason why your point #1 will ever come to fruition if for no other reason than the benefit of greater battery capacity rapidly diminishes above a driving range of 300 mi.
Cost/kWh is the more important metric at this point IMHO.
Yes, you can probably find someone to replace your battery when it's down to 75% capacity but consider the possibility that in 5 years time, your cost of ownership to have a much better feature set will be an insignificant portion of your expenses. That's what happens when you have an upgrade-able, software-driven product with volume production.
Once a certain cost point is reached, most people don't care to own if it's more convenient not to. Yeah, I still have vinyl and a turntable but I stream most of what I listen to these days. I still own an iPhone 1, purchased on the first day, but it's just for "classic" status and fairly useless for my day-to-day needs. I pay $33/mo for an iPhone 7+.
On pt #2, I hope you're right because I don't want to see fully use-able Teslas crushed, yet I don't expect Tesla to provide any support after 8 years. Disposable culture is not just an American phenomenon but I'm hopeful Tesla can lead the way to sustainable production and recycling.

So, because we're in the early stages of this transition, I see myself transitioning out of owning cars rather than staying within my comfort zone. I have the cash to buy my M3 and hopefully will get a chance in the next 6 months since the LEAF battery is dying fast. But, I'm thinking I'll lease since the cost of $ is low and the 2020 Tesla may just be too incredible to pass up.

 

[slipnslider]

Not just Tesla, but all modern cars are computer controlled. So why do you single out Tesla? And what is your basis for laggier and buggier? My experience is any software release does not get buggier or less buggy over time. It has the bugs it has. And if it is stable enough to work for 10 years, why can't it work for another 10? And another? I project today's model S will be getting software updates for 10 more years, though diminishing new functionality. Then it will continue to function as long as the mechanicals do. Though by that time you may need a radio update to LTE successor.

My basis is every touchscreen device I've ever owned. They work great at first, then they get less and less responsive. And the more updates you do, the slower they work.
I can imagine a tesla motor working for 30 years, but I can't imagine a tesla console lasting that long without a team of engineers and computer scientists dedicated to it.

 

[Viking1]

My basis is every touchscreen device I've ever owned. They work great at first, then they get less and less responsive. And the more updates you do, the slower they work.
I can imagine a tesla motor working for 30 years, but I can't imagine a tesla console lasting that long without a team of engineers and computer scientists dedicated to it.

I think the difference here is Tesla has complete and absolute control of what is installed on the car's system. On a PC YOU install software which may in turn install a boatload of software that may run in the background. That "bloatware" does take its toll after a while.

That said, they really need to fix their browser. It is really ridiculously slow. I've not seen anything that slow since the 80s using a 300 baud modem.

 

[Testwa]

But how long is "quite a while?" 5 years? 10 years? 20? 50? Shouldn't tesla be telling people how long their 100k purchases will be supported?

I was only referring to software updates and not their willingness to support spare parts. And in this respect to updates Tesla has the huge advantage of offering software updates for "quite a while" while other manufacturers aren't offering updates at all.

The tech will get laggier and buggier til it's no longer cost effective to troubleshoot and repair. Teslas are meant to be disposed of and replaced.

No, the opposite, as electric cars having much less components that are prone to wear and tear they should live longer. And also with less components repair and analysis for malfunction should be much simpler. So overall I am convinced that are meant to live much longer than other cars with combustion engine.
And additionally electric vehicle companies stand for sustainability. Therefore "disposable" is probably not in their focus. See the practice of Tesla: batteries that are not good enough for the car anymore can still be used as storage at home or at power plants.

 

[wdolson]

Tesla might quit updating the firmware for AP1 and such after a while, but I strongly doubt they will essentially disable older cars. Elon Musk has said the Model S/X drive train should be good for 1 million miles and they want to give the world a chance to prove him right. If they start disabling the older fleet, then that will never happen.

Tesla is also going to be opening up their service to third parties soon. Someone was asked about it a few months ago and he said they were working out the details of how to certify mechanics etc. at that time and would be rolling it out when they had all the details sorted out. They will need to open up service to third parties as their older cars go out of warranty. Up to know they have had to worry about it too much because 90% of their fleet is currently under warranty, but that's going to change as the older and higher mileage cars go out of warranty and they are going to need the service center space to support the flood of cars hitting the market in the next few years.

Additionally, there is a fairly strong community of people who restore and keep updated salvage title cars that Tesla won't support anymore. They have hacks to update firmware and other things Tesla won't allow anymore. It probably isn't possible anymore, but at one point it was possible to hack the firmware to allow supercharging if Tesla had turned it off.

The support network for Teslas is wider than Tesla leads us to believe and it will likely get larger and stronger as the fleet grows. It's just that right now Tesla has a larger percentage of their fleet under warranty than any other car maker, and their fleet is miniscule compared to most car makers. Tesla's next largest competitor is Subaru who makes around 1 million cars a year. Subaru is small by mainstream car maker standards, but their yearly production is 5X Tesla's entire production history to this point.

 

[wdolson]

My basis is every touchscreen device I've ever owned. They work great at first, then they get less and less responsive. And the more updates you do, the slower they work.
I can imagine a tesla motor working for 30 years, but I can't imagine a tesla console lasting that long without a team of engineers and computer scientists dedicated to it.

The thing that tends to wear out first with most portable devices is the batteries. Li-ion batteries don't like to sit at 100% charge, they degrade quickly when charged to 100% and left to sit. Most portable devices don't have any charge management, so they all charge to 100% and sit. Tesla and now some other plug in cars allow you to set the charge level and Tesla recommends only charging to 100% when you need it, charging to 90% on a daily basis. That's what I've done and my battery has had 0% degradation in a year and over 9000 miles.

Well managed li-ion cells can have a very long life.

I've been through a few upgrades over the last year and the touchscreen still works pretty much the same as it did when it was new. It's always worked better than my iPhone ever did. I don't mess around with the touchscreen a lot though. I usually have the map and the infotainment system up on the screen and sometimes I never touch it at all when I'm out and about.

Some people might mess around with their screen a lot and I did crash the center screen once when I was bopping back and forth between apps. I happened to be on the way to the service center for something else when it happened and I mentioned it when I got there (the screen did reboot itself after a minute blank). They checked the error logs and found that swapping back and forth between apps used up all the memory and that's what caused the crash.

Personally I think they should have used a more robust processor than the one they use (I believe it's an ARM processor, but I know it's a portable device processor). They could have easily used an x86 family processor intended for laptops or another similar processor. The extra power drain on the car's battery would have been negligible compared to all the other systems drawing power. Portable device processors are simpler to keep power draw to a minimum which is important when your sole source of power is about 1 cubic inch of battery, but that isn't the case with and EV.

 

[Viking1]

That's what I've done and my battery has had 0% degradation in a year and over 9000 miles.

That is fantastic! I got a MS 90D in Dec. 2016. I've got about 7K miles. My 90% has dropped from 266 to 258 (3%). I mostly SC (about once a week), with an occasional home charge. I'm in SoCal so the weather is mild.