Is there a benefit to waiting to configure?

[Napboy]

I was one of the lucky ones to get an invitation to configure today. Here’s my situation: I have a EV on lease until the end of the year. I’m perfectly happy with it as a commuter car. So I’m in no major hurry to buy the M3, but I’d really like to have one. I could wait a few months to see what options might be available, prices, tax credit, etc., but if I may just end up with the first production configuration anyway, are there any additional benefits to waiting? For example, do you think there will be fewer manufacturing defects in a few months?

My brain is telling me to wait, but my heart is telling me to order now. What to do?

 

[Lbkmxp100d]

What’s your lease payment? You will definitely miss out of $3750 if tax credit and possibly $7500 if you wait to end of year depending on when 200k limit by Tesla is met. Also, need to consider tax credit is rewarded at delivery and not when configured. I would be worried about the backlog of configured vehicles and a 60+ day delivery toward end of year. Also, there are a lot of people who have been invited to deliver but are waiting for dual motor, short range, etc... I have a feeling those people may consider to co figure when tax credit begins to run out and a backlog beginning.

 

[Napboy]

What’s your lease payment? You will definitely miss out of $3750 if tax credit and possibly $7500 if you wait to end of year depending on when 200k limit by Tesla is met. Also, need to consider tax credit is rewarded at delivery and not when configured. I would be worried about the backlog of configured vehicles and a 60+ day delivery toward end of year. Also, there are a lot of people who have been invited to deliver but are waiting for dual motor, short range, etc... I have a feeling those people may consider to co figure when tax credit begins to run out and a backlog beginning.

My lease payment is $188/month so pretty cheap. I don’t think that I would risk the full tax credit by waiting too long. But I could be tempted to get awd/air suspension if the price was right. And I could probably be happy with standard range, but who knows when that will be available.

 

[boiler81]

For example, do you think there will be fewer manufacturing defects in a few months?

I think this is a given, that more of the infancy software, hardware, and build problems will be solved by the time Tesla gets 30K cars or so "under their belt".

 

[dsvick]

There's really no harm in waiting. AS boiler mentioned there should be less physical issues as time goes by, the software will be more fully mature as well. And, there will be more options available that may appeal to you. The full tax credit, according to the latest best guesses, will be around through the end of Q3 (possibly Q4 if the Canada rumors are correct) which would put the half credit good through Q1 or Q2 or 2019.

 

[jtpassat]

the only thing you're risking as mentioned before is the tax credit.

 

[Skidmark]

Here are the Pros/Cons that I can think of in general (not everything applies to the OP):

Pros
More options become available (interior colors, battery capacities, opt-out of premium upgrades package)
Quality improves
Hardware improves

Cons
Missing the tax credit (even if you order in time, the car may not be delivered within the quarter due to supply/demand)
Needing a different car for the time you don't have the Model 3 (Some people have lease schedules, etc...)
Materials get "downgraded" (Alcantaragate)

For the OP's specific case, getting the car now doesn't seem to make sense because of the current vehicle lease. Unless you're close to the limit on the mileage, it doesn't make sense to get another car that will sit around, add insurance cost. The decrease of the Federal tax credit is the biggest concern when waiting.

 

[Shygar]

Just keep in mind if you ordered a Model S or X today, you would get it in June. So if they start allowing a bunch to order, those delivery timelines might go up (we don't really know). Personally I wish I could order now, but a part of me is glad I am waiting because I'm thinking every car they make is a learning experience.

 

[CameronB]

The tax credit is a gamble. Tesla may be able to avoid delivering the last of the 200,000 limit for US cars until the end of Q2 by prioritizing Candadian and/or European deliveries during the next few months. If so, then you might be good considering the phase out schedule. But as others have mentioned, there are probably a lot of other people (myself included!) who are waiting for something. In my case, it’s AWD and air suspension (I have a challenging driveway) and the white interior (love it on my Model S).

Knowing the challenge of Tesla ramping up (they will eventually get where they want to be - but the question is when), if you and 100,000+ other people decide to pull the trigger later in the year when SR, AWD, etc are available and when the clock starts ticking on the eventual end of the US tax credits...then you get into another (potentially long) queue that is double bounded by both the “tax credit countdown” and Tesla’s production rate at that time.

My personal gut feeling is that you may win that gamble...but it’s still a gamble for sure.

Regarding the lease...LeaseTrader.com or Swapalease.com are places where you can go (among other options) to potentially unload some/all of your remaining lease if you chose to go that route. Some leases are non transferable - but many can be transferred with some kind of transfer fee to the bank (and possibly other stipulations like credit worthiness of the person who assumes the lease). So this may be an option and if you do pull the trigger and get a M3 before your lease expires, may be a better option than having an extra car you may not need sitting around.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

The risk to waiting is loss of the tax credit.

The key risk to you is from people ahead of you who have deferred.

(1) Once AWD arrives the owners who deferred for AWD will jump ahead of you as Tesla will want to deliver those.for more money.
(2) As soon as people know when the tax credit will drop, some people who have deferred will jump in to try to ensure they qualify for $7,500.

The careful position is to make sense to wait for now, but to be ready to configure.

 

[jsmay311]

You will definitely miss out of $3750 if tax credit and possibly $7500 if you wait to end of year depending on when 200k limit by Tesla is met.

Just to clarify, the full $7500 credit will almost certainly be available at least* through the end of Q3-18, $3750 through Q1-19, and $1875 through Q3-19.

(*As CameronB pointed out above, there's an outside chance the tax credit phase-out dates could be pushed back an additional quarter if Tesla reduces domestic S/X shipments and/or falls way short of TM3 production targets over the next 4.5 months.)

Also, need to consider tax credit is rewarded at delivery and not when configured. I would be worried about the backlog of configured vehicles and a 60+ day delivery toward end of year. Also, there are a lot of people who have been invited to deliver but are waiting for dual motor, short range, etc... I have a feeling those people may consider to configure when tax credit begins to run out and a backlog beginning.

Very good point.

 

[David99]

I was one of the lucky ones to get an invitation to configure today. Here’s my situation: I have a EV on lease until the end of the year. I’m perfectly happy with it as a commuter car. So I’m in no major hurry to buy the M3, but I’d really like to have one. I could wait a few months to see what options might be available, prices, tax credit, etc., but if I may just end up with the first production configuration anyway, are there any additional benefits to waiting? For example, do you think there will be fewer manufacturing defects in a few months?

My brain is telling me to wait, but my heart is telling me to order now. What to do?

I'm in a similar position. I think waiting has a few advantages by itself. Tesla will improve production quality over time. That's what happened with the S and X. If you wait, you will get a better car with lots of small issues being fixed in production. You will also have more options. Right now, you have almost no choice in terms of options. You have to buy the full package.

 

[Napboy]

My personal gut feeling is that you may win that gamble...but it’s still a gamble for sure.

Regarding the lease...LeaseTrader.com or Swapalease.com are places where you can go (among other options) to potentially unload some/all of your remaining lease if you chose to go that route. Some leases are non transferable - but many can be transferred with some kind of transfer fee to the bank (and possibly other stipulations like credit worthiness of the person who assumes the lease). So this may be an option and if you do pull the trigger and get a M3 before your lease expires, may be a better option than having an extra car you may not need sitting around.

These are all valid points. I think most would agree that waiting until more options or more information becomes available is the prudent thing to do. I’m just feeling impatient because we’ve been waiting 2 years since making a reservation.

I’m blessed to be faced with such first world problems, but this is a much harder decision than I thought it would be.

 

[Napboy]

The risk to waiting is loss of the tax credit.

The key risk to you is from people ahead of you who have deferred.

(1) Once AWD arrives the owners who deferred for AWD will jump ahead of you as Tesla will want to deliver those.for more money.
(2) As soon as people know when the tax credit will drop, some people who have deferred will jump in to try to ensure they qualify for $7,500.

The careful position is to make sense to wait for now, but to be ready to configure.

I hope that they release the specs/pricing of awd/air suspension and the ability to opt out of the premium options long before they allow orders. That would provide time for those of us caught in the middle to order before the onslaught begins.

 

[CameronB]

I hope that they release the specs/pricing of awd/air suspension and the ability to opt out of the premium options long before they allow orders. That would provide time for those of us caught in the middle to order before the onslaught begins.

Agreed!

 

[daver6640]

I am playing the same game by holding my place in line to see if the SR will be available sooner. Does anyone know the current status of the Tax Credit? Meaning how many cars has Tesla delivered in the U.S.?

 

[Napboy]

I am playing the same game by holding my place in line to see if the SR will be available sooner. Does anyone know the current status of the Tax Credit? Meaning how many cars has Tesla delivered in the U.S.?

There are others who know the actual estimates but I think they’re around 170k to 180k sold in the US. The expectation is that they’ll reach 200k in Q2 which would have the $7,500 credit last until Sept 30 Then halved after that).

There are rumors (or perhaps wishful thinking) that Tesla will divert cars to Canada in order to push the 200k sold to Q3 which would extend the credit to Dec 31.

I wouldn’t bet on it.

 

[daver6640]

Wow! 170k to 180k. If that is actual estimate then I can see the end of Sept being the cut off for the Full Tax Credit. So Tesla diverting cars to Canada does that mean none will be delivered in the U.S.? Whatever the case is I should feel fortunate that at least I can order M3 at any time...assuming nothing else changes.

 

[Napboy]

Wow! 170k to 180k. If that is actual estimate then I can see the end of Sept being the cut off for the Full Tax Credit. So Tesla diverting cars to Canada does that mean none will be delivered in the U.S.? Whatever the case is I should feel fortunate that at least I can order M3 at any time...assuming nothing else changes.

The speculation is that tesla will divert just enough cars to Canada to stay under 200k until just after the start of Q3 to maximize the number of deliveries in the US until the full credit runs out at the end of the year.

I don’t know if that is realistic, but it’s a possibility.

 

[Napboy]

Thank you all for your advice. Unfortunately (or fortunately!) I have no impulse control and I placed an order for a pearl white with sport wheels and EAP. So excited!