You arrive at that number if you assume a 70% per year compound annual growth rate, which is Tesla’s historical growth rate.
2020: 500k
2021: 850K
2022: 1.4M
2023: 2.5m
2024: 4.2M
2025: 7.1M
2021 and 2022 are a given at this point. You can assume Tesla will hit those numbers. 2023 is also very possible with their new factories running near capacity. Next year Tesla will scout for new factory locations, start building them early 2023, finish them early 2024, won’t really be fully on line until 2025. So I think 2024, they won’t hit 4.2M, more like 3.5M at best, and then continue growing faster again after that. So maybe 6M for 2025. Cue the “It’s over” headlines for 2024
Note that these are insane growth rates for a car company. Also note that other car companies are going to get crushed. Also note that Tesla is more than a car company. It is also a world leader in battery cells, batteries, AI, self driving, Supercharging, solar roofs, stationary storage and who knows what else. Yes, Tesla is still a buy even at this stock price.
What are 2018 and 2019 numbers?
It is assumed there are no surprises, it is possible. Your 3.5 million is a reasonable low end prediction.
I don't think I've seen that specific video, I avoid videos with such extreme clickbait titles), but I have seen similar analyses. The flaw is the ASSUMPTION that growth will continue at recent historical rates. That's unrealistic. If nothing else, such growth will eventually be limited by factors like the demand for cars in the world economy. I don't know about you, but I'll never buy as many Teslas as I do, say, bars of soap. Realistically, the limit will be reached well before then because of competition (from traditional automakers, new startups, and Chinese EV makers), consumer biases (many people are very attached to their favorite brands), regulatory issues (once a single manufacturer grabs too much of the market, the anti-trust regulators will take notice and act), etc. IMHO, Tesla is in a good position to become A major automaker in a decade or two, and maybe even the biggest automaker in some markets, but I'd be completely shocked if they really dominated the industry (as in, sold more than half the cars made worldwide or in big markets like the USA, Europe, or China).
Click bait titles are a reality, even when the consent is solid. Just need a skeptical eye and bail when looks fishy.
Of course it is an assumption, based on past production experience. Just like hurricane prediction you have a range.
Demand for cars is not only strong, but growing.
Demand for BEV is very strong, and as more see BEV's, the more demand*
Charging networks are rapidly expanding
Governments are encouraging EV adoption, some places very strongly (and some horribly).
Then the constant stream of reviews saying Tesla is best BEV on road, with as yet nothing that can compete, and if did will need years to ramp up production.
The
ONLY limitation I can consider is
shortage of Lithium, and other limited supply materials needed for the batteries.
Lithium is the 25th more common element, but is not as concentrated as other minerals, more area and effort to collect, and needs to be separated from compounds. In short, invest in Li mines, they will grow massively.
* Tesla cars are supremely recognizable, and I am sure by now the majority know the logo. Other BEVs, like the Nissan Leaf has a body shape similar to the Versa, and the Mach-E is not that recognizable, and some BEV like Mini Cooper is the ICE version with BEV conversion (OTOH, BMW i3 is very recognizable).
As more see Tesla in neighborhood, others will want to be the Jones.
