Hang in there. Don't give up now. Tesla is starting upgrades on AP2.5 cars now. I am sure upgrades for the AP2 cars will come after that. Tesla is working on it as fast as they can.
This is what I'd call the sunk cost fallacy, or maybe even the gambler's fallacy. They very clearly are not working as fast as they can, but they are likely working as fast as they're willing. Several of us pointed this out months ago, and you thought we were just being negative. Upgrading customer equipment is a massive undertaking, and anybody telling you that it's just as simple a simple job is lying to you.
I worked doing Cable internet installs many, many years ago. It turned out that the local cable company needed to swap out the modems for what basically amounted to our entire first year of installed users. While we kept doing our regular installs and service calls. It took well over two years to re-visit that one year of installation, and the job was literally as easy as unplug the old device, plug the new one in, verify it got an IP address on our test laptop, and leave. Over two years. Tesla has a quarter of a million units to replace, which is close to three orders of magnitude beyond what we had to do back at the town cable company I contracted with.
I fully expect I won't even get the offer to upgrade my HW2.5 Model 3 until end of 2020. Their rollout plan is to move from west to east in the US, grouped by purchase date of FSD and vehicle. I'm in the northeast US, I purchased my car in September of 2018 with EAP, and ordered FSD when it was $2000 in 2019. End of 2020 would be surprising pleasant to me. Hell, I didn't even get my P3D spoiler until two months ago!
NO! I doubt it will take that long. Right now, Tesla is just doing a few isolated test upgrades. The rate of upgrades will greatly increase when Tesla starts the mass upgrade schedule. And when Tesla does figure out the issues with MCU1 and AP2 cars, they can do mass upgrades for those cars as well. So those upgrades can happen very quickly once the issues are solved. It won't take a whole year for each.
How is the rate going to greatly increase? They don't even have enough service techs for their work load today. Scheduling service is weeks out in most places, and even months out in other places. Now you're going to force every car in the fleet made between October 2016 and mid-April 2019 to receive a computer replacement? That's assuming HW1 owners don't get an upgrade, too, of course. Based on delivery numbers, that's right around
448,039 vehicles. Again, assuming they don't offer anything at all to HW1 owners. So half a million cars need to have someone take the dashboard off, replace a computer, and put the dashboard back on.
Let's be
very generous and say that takes an average of 15 minutes, we ignore things like travel time for ranger service and parking lot space for service centers. That's 112009.75 person hours of time. That's 11,201 10 hour work days. That's 2241 business weeks. That's 45 work years presuming each work year is 50 weeks. All day, every day, no breaks, no travel time, no delays, no nothing.
45 work years of time. At a billing rate of $175 per hour, they're basically burning $882,076,781.25 of possible revenue. Even if their techs only cost them a third of that and their total compensation is $50 an hour, they're spending $5,600,487.50 to make this happen in payroll alone. And again,
45 work years of time.
The speed isn't going to greatly increase. It's going to rely heavily on people trading in their vehicles before they're able to get the hardware upgraded. All the early HW2 cars are nearing 4 years old at this point. Leases will be returned, purchased cars will be traded in, and those customers will get HW3 in their new cars.