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It’s finally made trade publications ...

jonquiljo

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Sep 26, 2019
1,064
527
SF Bay Area - Marin
Tesla’s switch to foreign markets. See .. Tesla pushes Model 3 delivery time in US as demand surges in other markets - Electrek

As someone waiting for US delivery, I really hope Tesla doesn’t make December a “month from hell.” Given weather issues, Xmas, and Tesla’s idea that new (i.e. - untested) “service centers” will work, I hope we aren’t all caught in the middle of it.

It’s good to finally see something written somewhere. Hey Tesla, how about starting in mid-late November - - - December cuts it really close!
 
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Cronn

Member
Oct 11, 2019
106
63
Texas
I think if you ordered late sept to early oct you will see it end of oct to early nov. If you ordered now for sure it would be december
 

OCR1

Active Member
Jan 28, 2018
3,764
4,279
Southern California
December will be crazy, no doubt about it. But I’m wiling to bet that by the third week of January Tesla will be announcing either price cuts or incentives to compensate for the loss of the Federal tax credit.

I think it will be a relief when the credit finally goes away completely. Too much of Tesla’s demand has been rebate/credit driven. I’d like to see what demand looks like when that no longer is a factor.
 

jonquiljo

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Sep 26, 2019
1,064
527
SF Bay Area - Marin
December will be crazy, no doubt about it. But I’m wiling to bet that by the third week of January Tesla will be announcing either price cuts or incentives to compensate for the loss of the Federal tax credit.

I think it will be a relief when the credit finally goes away completely. Too much of Tesla’s demand has been rebate/credit driven. I’d like to see what demand looks like when that no longer is a factor.

I agree with analysts and do believe Tesla has a weaker than normal demand in the US. Early on, die hard Tesla owners waited a long time for their Teslas. Now, Tesla sells to those who are somewhat die hard - but not willing to wait many months or years. Tesla needs to clean up it's act and play like the competition will do soon. Perhaps it is that I know - close by (~60 mi) - that Tesla is knocking out thousands a week - but they are going out of the country.

So Tesla's US market is far from being tamed. When people really can count on a 2-3 week delivery (i.e. - relatively instant gratification), they will be taking Tesla more seriously. This latest snafu created by putting priority on many overseas deliveries is just taking a step backward in the US. They didn't just re-institute the wait, they led us in one direction and then backtracked quite quickly. It's typical Tesla and they will survive it - but at a cost. That's why I think this publication will finally open up the doors to see how the fallout will be.

Remember, we have this site for information. Most (or many) do not have the information and are getting lots of babbling answers from sales associates - if they even ask at all.
 

Tigerkc

Member
May 25, 2019
44
46
SF Bay area
It had been known for years that Tesla focus on making cars for oversea beginning of each quarter and then back to US market from mid to end of the quarter. This is to make sure oversea deliveries will happen before end of the quarter. I do not see how this is an indication of "weaker than normal demand in the US". Tesla Fremont cannot just focus on US market alone, until GF3 or GF (Europe) are up running,
 
Sep 18, 2019
188
179
Southern California
I think if you ordered late sept to early oct you will see it end of oct to early nov. If you ordered now for sure it would be december
I hope you’re right. I placed my SR+ order on Oct. 1st. I hope I get it before Nov. 3rd cause that’s when my approved loan expires. I may try to call and ask for an extension if Bank if America does that.
 

jonquiljo

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Sep 26, 2019
1,064
527
SF Bay Area - Marin
I hope you’re right. I placed my SR+ order on Oct. 1st. I hope I get it before Nov. 3rd cause that’s when my approved loan expires. I may try to call and ask for an extension if Bank if America does that.

That’s the problem with Tesla ... we really have no idea as to what their game plan is. Yes, Tesla may have cut off N American production at the tail end and beginning of every quarter. But I get the feeling now that this is more. Has Tesla ever radically changed delivery times in the middle of a month? From 2 weeks, to 2-3 weeks, to 6-8 weeks, to 6-10 weeks.
 

NickFie

Member
Sep 28, 2017
559
648
Near Philadelphia, PA
I suspect Tesla is ramping up APAC and EMEA shipments so those markets will be ready to absorb volume from China as that plant comes online. Also to increas global product visibility as competitive vehicles become available.

When the dust settles, Americas production will probably be for same-hemisphere markets and early shipments of new vehicles. Easier to identify and shakedown glitches when the plant is minutes away, not a day or more.

Fascinating to watch this global multiplayer chess match. Particularly when one player has week/month cycle time while most others are at model-year pace.
 

Uncle Paul

Well-Known Member
Nov 1, 2013
6,299
7,596
Canyon Lake,CA
This situation will only be temporary. Elon has mentioned that he believe the highest efficiencies (and lowest costs) will be obtained by making their cars in the same continent they are delivering them.

Asia, Europe, S. America, N. America, will each have their own Gigafactories, churning out Tesla for local consumption. Batteries will be made there as well as bodies, motors, electronics, wiring, interiors and glass.

Technology and engineering talent will also be sourced World wide. Local efficiencies and wages will determine not only local pricing, but local profitability. Regional tax and incentives will determine the rate of acceptance and depth of penetration. Tesla will go first to those places that will welcome them.

Interesting to me is the realization that Tesla may indeed become the thread that ties together all the economies of the world.

If you also consider HyperLoop, SpaceX, the Boring Company and the ultimate transfer of people from Earth to Mars, perhaps Tesla will be front and center to indeed "Changing the World".
 
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Kilotango74

Active Member
Apr 2, 2019
1,350
1,278
Palmdale, CA
This situation will only be temporary. Elon has mentioned that he believe the highest efficiencies (and lowest costs) will be obtained by making their cars in the same continent they are delivering them.

Asia, Europe, S. America, N. America, will each have their own Gigafactories, churning out Tesla for local consumption. Batteries will be made there as well as bodies, motors, electronics, wiring, interiors and glass.

Technology and engineering talent will also be sourced World wide. Local efficiencies and wages will determine not only local pricing, but local profitability. Regional tax and incentives will determine the rate of acceptance and depth of penetration. Tesla will go first to those places that will welcome them.

Interesting to me is the realization that Tesla may indeed become the thread that ties together all the economies of the world.

If you also consider HyperLoop, SpaceX, the Boring Company and the ultimate transfer of people from Earth to Mars, perhaps Tesla will be front and center to indeed "Changing the World".
Temporary is quite a subjective word at this point in time. While Gigafactory 3 is close to operational, no one in the general public knows when they will be capable of producing vehicles at any volume that take pressure off of Fremont. As for other factories, well that is all conjecture at this point as I don’t believe any locations for other factories have been identified let alone in the process of being built. While you say it’s temporary, I counter that with the feeling that we will be living this type of production squeeze for awhile yet. Let’s not even talk about the ability to produce spare parts. That doesn’t seem to have gotten any better.
 

Uncle Paul

Well-Known Member
Nov 1, 2013
6,299
7,596
Canyon Lake,CA
The Giga Factory in China went from dirt (actually swamp) lot to first production in less than one year.

A third Giga is already in discussions in Germany.

So I guess what I mean by temporary is just 5 years or so.

Elon was mentioning that one of the problems with being a public company is the intense pressure to structure things for quarterly and annual disclosures. There is an obligation to manage things to maximize share prices. This means all sorts of gyrations to get the numbers to satisfy the specialists that rate and value estimate the stock.

He also mentioned that he would like to take the company private again, so he could run it in the most efficient and valuable manner possible. He got Cruisified for his infamous $420 mention of "Funding secured".

This, perhaps is why Tesla must currently manage the shippments of their vehicles to mesh with the realities of shipping times. They need to get as many delivered to customers as possible...before the EOQ and EOY deadlines.

N. American buyers can easily guestimate their delivery times by when they are placing their order and putting down their deposits. A rush is made by Tesla to deliver as many local vehicle as possible before EOQ, then production is revamped to meet overseas demand.

In other words. If you desire to have delivery by Dec. 31st, you should be placing your order NOW!. If you wanted to get delivery in two weeks, you have placed your order in early September.

I placed my order for a Raven X in mid September. Got delivery in 4 days. They matched my order to USA inventory. Now all that remaining inventory is shipping on it's way to Asia and Europe to fill orders before EOY.

I imaging that when built, Gigafactories will also be building spare parts for local needs as well.
 

Phlier

Bluebird
Jun 12, 2019
1,910
3,328
Utah
I don’t believe any locations for other factories have been identified
Not publicly, no. But I'd bet money that Tesla is actively seeking factory location sites in many different parts of the world. We only find out about it once the deal is pretty much done.
 

jonquiljo

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Sep 26, 2019
1,064
527
SF Bay Area - Marin
The Giga Factory in China went from dirt (actually swamp) lot to first production in less than one year.

A third Giga is already in discussions in Germany.

So I guess what I mean by temporary is just 5 years or so.

Elon was mentioning that one of the problems with being a public company is the intense pressure to structure things for quarterly and annual disclosures. There is an obligation to manage things to maximize share prices. This means all sorts of gyrations to get the numbers to satisfy the specialists that rate and value estimate the stock.

He also mentioned that he would like to take the company private again, so he could run it in the most efficient and valuable manner possible. He got Cruisified for his infamous $420 mention of "Funding secured".

This, perhaps is why Tesla must currently manage the shippments of their vehicles to mesh with the realities of shipping times. They need to get as many delivered to customers as possible...before the EOQ and EOY deadlines.

N. American buyers can easily guestimate their delivery times by when they are placing their order and putting down their deposits. A rush is made by Tesla to deliver as many local vehicle as possible before EOQ, then production is revamped to meet overseas demand.

In other words. If you desire to have delivery by Dec. 31st, you should be placing your order NOW!. If you wanted to get delivery in two weeks, you have placed your order in early September.

I placed my order for a Raven X in mid September. Got delivery in 4 days. They matched my order to USA inventory. Now all that remaining inventory is shipping on it's way to Asia and Europe to fill orders before EOY.

I imaging that when built, Gigafactories will also be building spare parts for local needs as well.

Its been often written how Elon Musk’s (major) Tesla compensation is tied into meeting internal milestones. We’re supposedly talking about 10’s of billions here - at least in stock grants.

I can’t possibly imagine that Tesla can go private again, as cash is really low these days - and there are a lot of shares outstanding.

When most of us placed orders we were actually believing the 2-3 weeks that showed on the websites and came out of SA’s mouths. All that while, Tesla knew that 2-3 weeks was utter BS. We’re buying cars, not life experiences, and the extent of that deception should not have to have been anticipated.

It really depends on when Tesla restarts their Fremont factory for US production. That seems to be a closely held secret. If that date is a month or more away, the end of quarter rush is going to be a nightmare. I would guess that most “stock” are cars made for orders that fail to come to a conclusion. Tesla can’t just crank out stock when capacity is so limited.

What I wonder is that if someone orders in first half of October - are they looking at the same “approximate Christmas” delivery as those ordering now or even in November? Tesla makes none of the above clear. People have lives to plan, and can’t sit around for months delaying things because of a car. They have trades, loans - all of which change over time. They need to plan on something concrete. It’s that simple.
 
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