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It's a Good Thing that GM unveiled the Bolt nearly 3 months before Model 3 unveiling!

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Quant, Jan 7, 2016.

  1. Quant

    Quant Member

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    #1 Quant, Jan 7, 2016
    Last edited: Jan 7, 2016
    .1. Assuming TSLA exec team knew about this for at least a couple of months, and had some feel for the design of the Bolt via pics shown of Bolt Mules, it gives TSLA a meaningful advantage.
    - the Bolt car concept design and many specs have been unveiled. I assume GM Bolt team did not have a reciprocal info or insights into the Model 3, except features from the S.
    - The entry price point for the Bolt is now known.
    - the range for the Bolt ( may or may not be real world mileage ) is now also known.
    - the console and driver infotainment design has also been unveiled....largely.

    2. TSLA can and, I expect, will open up reservations ( with a deposit) in late March. GM has not mentioned much about any equivalent to this because it has to be sold by the dealer network. I expect that will give TSLA a 6 months head start for taking reservations, from March until at least Sep.

    I suspect GM did this unveiling now, because they did NOT want to come AFTER TSLA, and when market information of Model 3 reservations pile up by end of April/ May, which could also have been demoralizing for the dealer network. In other words, if GM did not go first, and TSLA did in March, and piled up ( say 100 k in reservations ), it would have been a marketing disadvantage for GM.

    3. TSLA's strategic advantage will be the upscale TSLA brand ( vs. saying " I drive a Chevy " ...and just look at the BOLT's wheels and tires , for something close to $40 k) , and their captive Gigafactory and battery cell design for optimization via OTA updates....which GM will have to the assign to the dealer service centers. Customers will have to make appointments and it will cost the BOLT customers TIME !

    4. TSLA now knows that GM plans to have the BOLT in showrooms by the end of the year, so TSLA will need to ensure ramp up of production ( including Gigafactory ) faster than planned. This hopefully will inform and guide TSLA model 3 design choices, and I hope keep them from taking higher levels of production complexity risk.

    5. Elon Musk has said that Model 3 will have at least 200 Real World miles....perhaps meaning vs. BOLT about 240 miles, on an apples to apples basis ??? tbd.

    6. AND, Branding matters !!!!! A LOT !! I think GM made a mistake launching its mass market small to mid size EV, at a close to $40 K price point ( with just the basic options ), branded as a Chevy! And, it will need to compete against the BMW i 3 in this class , from a branding standpoint.

    TSLA now will need to work harder on this range battle and try to go beyond 250 miles, relative to the BOLT, by the time the Model 3 enters production. I am quite optimistic that TSLA will be able to achieve this. AND, very importantly , I hope the Model 3 will come with a more powerful battery option , say for $5 K more, that takes the range close to 300 miles.

    Having noted the above points, I still think the Gigafactory ( battery and battery cell performance optimization ), the economies of scale for TSLA battery cost (via the in house Gigafactory), will be TSLA's sustainable advantages through 2021/22.

    From a marketing standpoint, TSLA just might unveil a better looking design with the Model 3 - compared to the BOLT , which to me seems to me, on the exterior, to be a cross between tiny Fiat's design and the BMW i3' without the BMW type of exterior finish.

    So, I believe this BOLT unveiling - now - is actually a competitive adavantge for TSLA to finalize some last minute design touches, and push for even greater range than expected todate for the Model 3.

    Looks and and sexy design matters and I believe Elon is only too aware of that. IF, they can pull that off at the lower price point AND get closer to 250 miles of range ( vs the Bolt ), 1.e. at least 20 PC more AND with 50 PC LESS charging time for the Model 3, vs the 9 hours for the BOLT, the GM dealerships will have a tough time selling the BOLT. Also, let's not forget that the Chevy dealers will be less incentivized, since EV's will produce less service dept revenues for the GM dealers, over the life of the BOLT.

    I believe most in the media, simply do not fully appreciate the combined impact of all of the above! Just one guy's opinion though, FWIW.
     
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  2. vdiv

    vdiv Chief Grump

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    Don't forget that Tesla plans on selling the Model 3 world-wide, whereas GM had a rather hard time selling the Volt/Ampera, and to my knowledge have not disclosed plans to sell the Bolt EV abroad. I do agree that the Bolt EV is good for Tesla, hell, it's good for all of us. What GM will do with it remains to be seen.
     
  3. Panoz

    Panoz Member

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    An early announcement in the same market space may, indeed, give Tesla a better target (but I think it will have relatively little impact on the existing design). It will mostly help the marketing material, but I don't see Tesla writing "we're better than X because..." materials. They generally just say why their cars are great.

    It's possible some people may buy the Bolt, if it ever gets built, and not wait for the Tesla. That would hurt Tesla Model 3 sales, possibly, but as soon as Tesla opens reservations they'll be flooded with sales.
     
  4. Quant

    Quant Member

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    I believe you are right, BUT, I meant that for example, they might still have various design choices ( on say 5-7 things ) , which they have not yet fully decided on, but all could work, and THIS might give some flexibility at this stage to choose amongst those limited last minute choices based on competitive needs. ( maybe even go with the more conservative choices ).
     
  5. MikeInFL

    MikeInFL Member

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    GM is already behind. I'm pretty certain M3 will have a minimum of 300 miles of range.
     
  6. eye.surgeon

    eye.surgeon Member

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    1. GM can afford to sell the Bolt at a loss, all day long. And probably is. tesla can't. Tesla has to be showing real actual positive cash flow within 6 months of the M3 launch or it's in serious trouble.
    2. The model 3 won't see it's first customer for 18-24 months. in terms of product cycles, that's a LONG time. the Bolt will have been updated by then. The current Bolt isn't the target.

    Still loving my Model S and excited to see the reveal in march
     
  7. Quant

    Quant Member

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    I agree. But, I think GM will have a really tough time being successful at any significant volume level...because of the design ( uninspiring ...looks like a Chevy ) , and the dealer / branding network. Dealers will be disincentivized to sell, due to low service revenues.

    So, IF Model 3 design is great and sexy, and Model 3 range always 20 PC ahead of BOLT, at all future time points, and very importantly a multiple hour charging advantage vs the Bolt's 9 hours....the Bolt sales won't be different than the Volt sales.

    As for cash flow, I think TSLA will indeed be cash flow positive by the end of 2016, on an operating basis, as long as X production is fully ramped up and quality is good . They cannot be fully ( other than on an operating basis) cash flow positive ( including billion dollar Gigafactory investments ) until say 2018.
     
  8. larmor

    larmor Member

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    Another reason it is good to GM to announce Bolt early, puts pressure on TM to stick to their M3 March timeline. I'm sure everything for the M3 is all ready done in terms of design and development, and only needs the GF to mass produce the battery to bring the cost down...

    - - - Updated - - -

    But remember, there is a segment of the buying population that wants to go to the dealer, just sayin...
     
  9. Spidy

    Spidy Member

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    I think most facts about the Bolt were already knows at their last presentation and spy shots also showed the progress. Knowing Tesla I think we can be happy of they actually meet their timing, I don't think they will accelerate anything.

    The Ampera is almost 40000 Euro in Germany, why would anyone buy that car? The Model 3 will have the same issue, without options it will start at 39000Euro, that's BMW 5-Series pricing.
     
  10. Quant

    Quant Member

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    Yes, and that has been true with the Leaf, Volt, i3.... That will be same as before.

    BUT, ONLY TSLA will be coming in at much lower price point, relative to their other EV models.
     
  11. Twiglett

    Twiglett Single pedal driver

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    Indeed, there are folks out there who prefer having someone local to talk to about issues.
    For me the best part of GM announcing the Bolt is that is ensures that Tesla will do everything possible to deliver the M3 on time.

    I have to keep hoping that, its touch and go on M3 availability and my lease termination :)
     
  12. AMPUP

    AMPUP Member

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    It's a Good Thing that GM unveiled the Bolt nearly 3 months before Model 3 un...

    The one thing I will say about my old Volt, it said I would get 37 miles and I got at least 40 with spirited driving. my S says 230 and I get 180. So it will be interesting to see what the bolt Vs M3 will do real world.
     
  13. Quant

    Quant Member

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    Well, and they bought the S, vs the MB S Class and the BMW 7 series .... Right ? Remember TSLA is only looking for 1-2 market share, in the mass market category. If the design is great, the range and charging time are good, then I believe TSLA will get that share !

    Put another way, 98pc may not not buy, and TSLA will do well. I think you have to focus on the small stats/percentages....else you can do a survey and say 95 PC said NO and TSLA would still get their share ! You will then have missed the essence of the numbers.
     
  14. JohnSnowNW

    JohnSnowNW Active Member

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    I've been asking myself this, when thinking of the Prius vs Mirai, but what exactly is the advantage of the Bolt over the Volt? I mean, if we're considering the standard GM buyer looking to get into an EV...what about the Bolt makes it desirable over the Volt?

    BEV purists aside, what is the advantage here? The Volt is cheaper, it looks better than the Bolt, it has a smaller interior volume, but the Bolt's extra volume is more or less vertical. I suppose it seems that you could fit 5 adults in the Bolt, where the rear middle seat in the Volt is more or less designed for young children.
     
  15. RobStark

    RobStark Active Member

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    Laughable. Model 3 >>>>>Ampera

    The 5 Series starts with the 520i with a little four banger and 6 speed manual transmission for 41200Euro.

    Because the Model 3 has no engine,transmission or transaxle tunnel it will have more interior volume, more storage volume, it will be much quicker and have lower operations cost.

    All auto producing countries have their nationalist buyers that will only buy domestic brands. Tesla will eventually get its market share in Europe, even Germany.
     
  16. Quant

    Quant Member

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    Yeah, but the Volt was gas hybrid ! Imo, the range comparisons are best made with pure EV's.
     
  17. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Active Member

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    Bolt:
    - more passenger room
    - more cargo space
    - 0-60 < 7s.
    - No gas! Therefore also no ERDTT.
    - Much faster AC charging. Site mentions 32A, but is that 240V x 32A or current limited at higher voltages?
    - DC charging! Max DC charging power is not yet known, but I read 0-80% in 45 minutes. If 200mi EPA (Chevy says at least 200), then that's 213 1/3 miEPA/hour, which would imply 60kW? Not great, but still better in a pinch or if available than AC.
    - Not yet known: heating system, but it can't be worse.
    - Not yet known: price of options - should expect similar pricing for those shared with the Volt

    The Bolt's now top of my list of cars to replace my Prius in 2019. I'm very much looking forward to Tesla's design prototype in March, as well as Hyundai's Ioniq, and I'm looking forward to seeing how other companies, like Nissan and BMW respond to the Bolt.
     
  18. jhm

    jhm Active Member

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    I have a hunch that the Model 3 will be optimized for autonomous driving. This will include features and integration never before seen. People will want to buy it not because it is an electric, but because it is the most self-capable and aware car on the market. This will put it in a whole new category. Whatever GM has going on with the Bolt, I wish them well. But Musk is not going to miss this opportunity to bring something truly great, a full generation ahead, to the market.
     
  19. JenniferQ

    JenniferQ Member

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    In the words of my teen daughter when I showed her the pics of the Bolt and asked, "Cute?" "Ugly?" and she came back with "soooooo ugly!" I am not worried about Tesla. If only I could get her a Bolt. If only the 3 were available at the end of this year. Sigh.
     
  20. AMPUP

    AMPUP Member

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    That was the volt running in pure EV mode. They just had a better algorithm that was more realistic. Let's face it, 'ideal' is a fairytale and 'rated' is hard to do unless you drive like my grandma.
     

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