It's not official BUT,,,,

[Moderatefan]

Let’s all realize that the effort over the past week isn’t sustainable, but they know what’s needed to make it so. I don’t expect 5000/wk continuous for another month or so.

Here's some controversy, b/c they DO need to execute on P/AWD/FP so everybody gets their car in 3-5 months as promised.
I think (out of the blue number) 200K U.S. + 40K Canada reservations - ~30-40K already delivered or close to be delivered leaves us with 200K outstanding reservations.
The deferral numbers are hard to guess, since likely they would not be entered on the spreadsheet, but out of those who did enter info ~30% want SR, non-PUP, white interior. So, 140K potentially ordered.
140K/5 months/4 weeks = 7K/week average.

I do think that the last line(tent) has some capacity left to ramp up, but considering the min of 2/3 months, they don't really have a luxury of slacking off and reducing production numbers. They do need to continue ramping up.

 

[ℬête Noire]

Musk Tweets - Tesla Production Hits 7,000 In 7 Days, Model 3 5,000

the article states

After their weekly end of Q1 number, in the weeks following they were able to incrementally increase that. The 2nd week is easier, and the 3rd week is easier yet, and that throwing of huge numbers of bodies at the problem is an exponentially decreasing benefit per body (sometimes it'll get into the negatives but I don't know that that happened here). I wouldn't worry much about the "all hands on deck part of it" leading to much of a fall-off, in any.

The issue I expect is they now have a big pile of D/P orders and haven't been building those. Musk was explicit that first order of business was 5K, then AWD (implicit is P comes along with that). There's going to be a lot of pressure to in the near future turn around parts of the production to implement AWD production. Whether or not they have to put everything everything into turn-around to do that I'm not sure? In any event it's going to necessitate a meaningful impact on the overall production numbers for at least a couple weeks when they do it, and it'll complicate their parts logistics and bring that under stress for longer than that.

 

[Zaxxon]

What is the basis for your opinion? I have some thoughts but I'd like to hear yours.

I wasn't the one to post that opinion, but it's not out of line to assume that the quarter-end burst rate won't be maintained right away. That's been the case in every Model 3 quarter this far. The fact that they sustained 5k for a full week, and that the email sounds confident that they'll hit 6k next month (note:this could mean July or August, as the email was sent on July 1st) means I think there's a chance they could sustain it.

But even if they don't immediately sustain it, and we assume that Q3 only averages 5k, and that S/X continue at 2k, and that there's one week of shutdown leaving 12 weeks of production: that's 7,000 x 12 = 84,000 BEVs.

In Q1 the total worldwide plug-in sales (including Teslas, and including PHEVs) was about 310,000 units. Subtract Tesla's 30k and you're at 280,000. Subtract PHEVs and you're likely at half that or so. Let's call it 140,000.

So that means that even assuming they don't continue to ramp right away, Tesla is already producing 2/3 as many BEVs as the rest of the world combined.

That's fantastic. This 5k/week debacle has led to Tesla continuing to have drama overshadow what they are actually achieving, and that achievement is incredible.

 

[mongo]

I wasn't the one to post that opinion, but it's not out of line to assume that the quarter-end burst rate won't be maintained right away. That's been the case in every Model 3 quarter this far. The fact that they sustained 5k for a full week, and that the email sounds confident that they'll hit 6k next month (note:this could mean July or August, as the email was sent on July 1st) means I think there's a chance they could sustain it.

Previous quarter have ended with extrapolated rates. A few days in a week or a few hours in a shift. 5k in a week is 5k in a week. As long as their suppliers/ inventory keeps up and they back fill any positions covered by engineers, there is no systemic reason to doubt continued 5k/ wk rate.

 

[Zaxxon]

No, last quarter's letter referenced weeks, not extrapolation.

 

[ℬête Noire]

I wasn't the one to post that opinion, but it's not out of line to assume that the quarter-end burst rate won't be maintained right away. That's been the case in every Model 3 quarter this far.

The end of Q1 week production was followed the next week by a higher production number yet (and IIRC a 3rd week after that with yet higher production, according to a leaked email but I don't see that handy right now).

Eventually they started pulling stuff apart again to make improvements so they could push it much higher rather than just incremental high, but it's pretty clear the 2K was sustainable if they didn't want to improve things.

Not sure where Tesla is going to try go from here with production numbers, how actively they are going to be pushing towards that 8K/week target number for the end of the year. Especially given they've also got the more pressing implication of AWD on their plate.

 

[Zaxxon]

The end of Q1 week production was followed the next week by a higher production number yet (and IIRC a 3rd week after that with yet higher production, according to a leaked email but I don't see that handy right now).

That's from the shareholder letter.

Eventually they started pulling stuff apart again to make improvements so they could push it much higher rather than just incremental high, but it's pretty clear the 2K was sustainable if they didn't want to improve things.

Right. You're agreeing with me. They pulled things apart to make improvements, and that tanked the idea of consistent production. They will surely do the same in Q3, as they are not planning to stay at or near this rate--it's upward to 10k.

Not sure where Tesla is going to try go from here with production numbers, how actively they are going to be pushing towards that 8K/week target number for the end of the year. Especially given they've also got the more pressing implication of AWD on their plate.

Agreed: we don't know how aggressive they'll be, and therefore how much we'll see in the way of inconsistencies. We will certainly see some, though.

 

[ℬête Noire]

Right. You're agreeing with me.

Not with you initial assertion, which was wrong. Three weeks of "burst" most of which is into the next Q???? If an extra couple weeks isn't "maintained" I'm not sure what would count as maintained? It becomes an indefinite and well, going down that road eventually nothing is maintained because at the end of it all there's the heat death of the Universe.

 

[scaesare]

Musk Tweets - Tesla Production Hits 7,000 In 7 Days, Model 3 5,000

the article states

That assumes that the human resources were pulled in strictly to just build cars and not install equipment, tune lines, optimize processes, etc...

As a matter of fact, given that the nature of a line is rather serial, I'd be willing to bet that there's a limit to how many people you can throw at it for actual assembly work and exceeding that, if anything, reduces throughput.

If, however, those folks helped install gear and/or tuned the existing processes, they can leave and the increased line productivity remains...

 

[Zaxxon]

Not with you initial assertion, which was wrong. Three weeks of "burst" most of which is into the next Q???? If an extra couple weeks isn't "maintained" I'm not sure what would count as maintained? It becomes an indefinite and well, going down that road eventually nothing is maintained because at the end of it all there's the heat death of the Universe.

No, that's a false dichotomy. In this case it's simple. If they produce X/week as their reached target, then maintaining that would be [weeks in subsequent quarter * X]. They haven't done that yet.

But again, what they *are* doing is phenomenal. Don't interpret me calling a spade a spade in terms of their thus-far inability to mainatin a quarter-end target through the subsequent quarter as an attack on Tesla.

 

[ℬête Noire]

No, that's a false dichotomy. In this case it's simple. If they produce X/week as their reached target, then maintaining that would be [weeks in subsequent quarter * X]. They haven't done that yet.

What's a "false dichotomy"? Not getting on board with your [previously unstated] arbitrary definition of "maintain"?

They had X/week at the end of a Q. They then had X+a bit in some following weeks in the next Q. If you don't want to count that is some semblance of maintaining the production level in a meaningful sense? Well, I'm not buying into that horse pucky......

 

[Zaxxon]

What's a "false dichotomy"? Not getting on board with your [previously unstated] arbitrary definition of "maintain"?

Your logical fallacy is black or white

They had X/week at the end of a Q. They then had X+a bit in some following weeks in the next Q. If you don't want to count that is some semblance of maintaining the production level in a meaningful sense? Well, I'm not buying into that horse pucky......

That's fine. I'm comfortable with my own read.

 

[alloverx]

Was the factory going for 24 hours per day to get this number?
-lets hope the robots get a break before they die of over-work.

 

[Moderatefan]

Meanwhile, Panasonic is running out of battery cells
Panasonic would consider additional investment in Tesla's Gigafactory if requested: executive

Ito said last week at Panasonic's general shareholders meeting that a pickup in production of Tesla's Model 3 cars has resulted in occasional battery cell shortages.

but, they are willing to invest more in GF

Panasonic, which is contributing about $1.6 billion to Tesla's $5 billion "Gigafactory", "would consider additional investment if we are requested to do so

 

[mongo]

No, last quarter's letter referenced weeks, not extrapolation.

True, but in terms of the start of quarter being less than end of previous quarter, the Q1 update letter supports not slowing down. (The previous extrapolated ones were more optimistic than later actual weekly production)

The Q1's update letter referenced 7 days and a little over 2 weeks before the mid April tune-up shut down.
Those numbers showed minimal to no drop from end of Q1 to start of Q2.
April 3 Q1 numbers letter:
2,020 3's in past 7 days.
May's Q1 letter:
Just over 2 weeks from beginning of April to shut down: 4,750 (2,480 in slightly more than 2 weeks - last 7 days, 2,170 in 7 days if that span is 8 days, 1,929 if 9 days)
7 days before shutdown: 2,270 higher than end Q1

 

[dauger]

70 years later and some journalists still don't learn from "Dewey Defeats Truman":

Green Car Reports the morning of July 1.