It's on: Oil versus Electric

[772]

I'm clarifying for Chickenlittle. The Tesla loan was paid off IN FULL with interest and NONE written off. The GM loan is the one that had write-offs. Someone is going to misunderstand post and start myth.

Disagree with N4HHE, the US loan was very valuable money to Tesla as it came before IPO. Subsequently, IPO raised money, and shortly after that quarterly profitability began, which all enabled payoff. But govt. investment certainly helped during pre-IPO days. My guess anyway.

In the video from Dell World, Elon said it was mostly the Daimler money in early 2009 that kept Tesla from folding. The money from the US govt only came around the middle of 2010 when the company was already recovering and was by no means a lifeline. It did help accelerate their growth/production, though.

 

[jeffnorman]

Thanks for the kind words. Getting some other types of feedback as well: on TeslaMotors.com forum some are calling me a conspiracy theorist, looking for connections "under rocks" that are not there. LOL. I am happily embracing my tin foil hat.

Tesla **is** up against a huge entrenched oil and auto industry even broader than what you pointed out. There is big oil, big automakers, and dealers. There are also gas stations, auto parts stores, auto repair, farming!? (ethanol), oil pipelines, oil shipping and refineries, energy trading and futures, and other related industries that are depending heavily or entirely on the dominance and continuation of the ICE. The system is so huge that it boggles the mind when you really think about it. But that is far from an alliance against Tesla. Big oil doesn't much care for ethanol. Some of these (car repair shops, car parts) might survive the EV revolution albeit as smaller less important and less profitable businesses. Newly built independent gas stations could easily incorporate superchargers. Auto dealers and big auto companies are not exactly on friendly terms all the time (I would bet that GM, Ford, Chrysler, Toyota and Honda are all watching very carefully what inroads Tesla is making in direct selling, and they would love to be able to do the same).

In fact, auto dealers seem to me to be the most dangerous enemy of Tesla in the near term. Tesla threatens the existence of dealerships. I am sure that GM, Ford, etc. are looking at Tesla's direct selling and asking why they can't do the same. I suspect that most consumers would much rather buy directly from Ford or GM versus a local dealer. The locally owned franchised dealer is no longer needed, and it is a major headache for a much larger, more mature auto industry. Car dealers know that without legal protection, they would cease to exist, because they are no longer needed and they introduce real inefficiencies in the system of car selling and distribution. Tesla's revolution is not just about EV, but also about a better way to sell cars. Tesla could have avoided that battle by using existing or new franchised dealerships .. but Elon appears to be the kind of person who wants to do things right, regardless of the fights he is up against. I agree that dealerships are an industry waiting to be disintermediated, but I worry that by picking that fight Tesla has unnecessarily taken on a hugely well-funded and influential adversary. I would believe that the dealership associations are behind the Tesla fire stories much more easily than the idea that Big Oil and Big Auto are behind it.

 

[JRP3]

As Elon has stated they had to take on the dealership model since dealers don't have the incentive or knowledge to properly sell the technology. Plus Tesla needs to have more control over the process at this point in time.

 

[artsci]

Tesla **is** up against a huge entrenched oil and auto industry even broader than what you pointed out. There is big oil, big automakers, and dealers. There are also gas stations, auto parts stores, auto repair, farming!? (ethanol), oil pipelines, oil shipping and refineries, energy trading and futures, and other related industries that are depending heavily or entirely on the dominance and continuation of the ICE. The system is so huge that it boggles the mind when you really think about it.

This reminds me of the Opium wars. British interests got the Chinese addicted to Opium then went to war with the Chinese when they try to get off the addiction, and took one of their most important cities (Hong Kong) in the war settlement.

Big Oil and the whole set of economic interests around them has the our whole country (and world) addicted to fossil fuels and when we try to end the addiction they will wage all out PR war and worse against the opposing forces. It's naive to believe anything else. That's just the way those with power and economic might always behaved when their interests are threatened. It's been the case throughout human history. Why should this be any different?

 

[VolkerP]

Thanks for the kind words. Getting some other types of feedback as well: on TeslaMotors.com forum some are calling me a conspiracy theorist, looking for connections "under rocks" that are not there. LOL. I am happily embracing my tin foil hat.

If I ever feel the urge to be part of a conspiracy, I'll look amongst the members of TMC for joiners! Oh, wait... :redface:

 

[Electroman]

Jeff Norman said it right.

The Oil industry is least bit threatened by rise of EVs. There is still a vast appetite for oil for decades to come well into another 50+ years.

The Auto manufacturing industry, will eventually adapt and catch up and survive. But altleast for another 15 years their bottom line will be untouched and they will adapt.

The dealers on the other hand can vanish in 5 years or even less - with a single stroke of a pen from a SC ruling. They are **** scared and will do anything to derail Tesla. It is these guys Elon and all other EV aficionados should be worried.