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Jag gets in on the "EV's don't have to look stupid" Market.
- Thread starter SabrToothSqrl
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- Electric Vehicles
dennis
Model S Plaid
The increasing availability of CCS chargers looks good on paper until you delve into the details. I researched what it would be like to drive a Chevy Bolt on the most-traveled route from San Jose to LA, a distance of about 350 miles. First off, there are no CCS chargers currently on I5, the fastest and most traveled route. There are CCS charging options on US 101 and CA 99, but they both add about an hour to the trip.
Chargepoint and EVgo both provide CCS DCFC in California. Most of the Chargepoint ones are 24kW, with some having been upgraded to 50kW. EVgo chargers are 50kW. So figure on spending at least twice the time that it would take to charge at a Tesla Supercharger. Plus almost all of the locations only have only a single CCS charger. Think Harris Ranch 4 years ago.
The CCS network for EV friendly California is not conducive to long distance travel. I can't imagine that the rest of the US is any better, and it is probably worse. Why is that? Because up until 3 months ago there were no EVs other than Tesla that could be used for long distance travel. The CCS and CHAdeMO chargers in place are there to serve city cars like the Leaf and i3. Yes it will get better, but if you are planning to buy an iPace for long distance travel in 2018 or 2019 be prepared for a 3-5 year setback in charging compared to what the Model 3 owner will experience.
green1
Active Member
Ok, we'll go with your way. Nobody will ever build any more fast chargers, and only Teslas will be able to travel,
But of course nobody bought a Tesla in the first place because there were no superchargers when the Tesla came out...
I didn't say the CCS network was perfect, or even great, only that it was growing all the time and that it will continue to do so, and at a much faster rate than Tesla is installing superchargers. Already there are many places not far from me that can not be reached on the supercharger network, but can be reached on CCS. This will only continue to improve for all EV owners.
But of course nobody bought a Tesla in the first place because there were no superchargers when the Tesla came out...
I didn't say the CCS network was perfect, or even great, only that it was growing all the time and that it will continue to do so, and at a much faster rate than Tesla is installing superchargers. Already there are many places not far from me that can not be reached on the supercharger network, but can be reached on CCS. This will only continue to improve for all EV owners.
Charger availability and type is highly regional (for example where I live the CCS network is better, long-range included, but stall counts are less per location), but of course Supercharging is expected to have benefits for the next few years over other options.
But the question is: how many potential EV buyers actually need that long-range travel beyond home/work charging and a large enough battery for a couple of days of usual driving...? That could be a significant market for any large-battery EV, I think.
Supercharging is already an inconvenience not all people are prepared to hassle with compared to an ICE, if they need to roadtrip a lot. In most places outside of California the network is sparse anyway. But out of those who see the benefit in the EV, for them home/work charging may well cover most of their needs.
The way I personally drive my Tesla, I can not see, really, any difference with an I-Pace with similar battery. Except I would be able to use those CCS chargers, I expect. And if the I-Pace would replace a second car, it would be even more perfect...
So, in that case, it would come down to other features of the car and how they compare...
green1
Active Member
And this is exactly it. The supercharger network will not be the deciding factor on whether this car succeeds, features, cost, brand image. Those are what will cause any new EV to succeed or fail.
Very few people are going to say "this vehicle is better in every way... but without the supercharger network I'll pick a vehicle I like less instead" The question will be what vehicle people want.
And the chargers will come over time.
Also in regards to the "stalls per charger" issue. I know a place not too far away that has one supercharger with 4 stalls, a few blocks away there is a single stall CHAdeMO, and a few blocks from that, another single stall CHAdeMO, and a few blocks from that, another, and another.
The supercharger, while not to the point of an actual line up yet, is usually pretty full, the CHAdeMOs are empty. Seems to me that the "single stall" issue may be overblown if it's compensated for by that many chargers in a such a small area.
green1
Active Member
I don't need to charge in Alberta, I can charge at home and make it out of my province.
Where I need to charge is BC. Take a look there and you'll find a very different answer.
Where I need to charge is BC. Take a look there and you'll find a very different answer.
dennis
Model S Plaid
I noticed that you are in Calgary so I did a search on a couple of charging sites for Level 3 chargers in the province of Alberta. I found exactly 3 - and they are all Tesla Superchargers. Am I missing something or are there no other DCFC chargers in your province at the current time?
dennis
Model S Plaid
How about the people who live in BC and want to visit Alberta in their EV? Where do they charge?
green1
Active Member
I never said the CCS network was perfect, or even as good as the SC network, only that it's there, and it's growing, in fact growing faster than the SC network is.
Yeah, regional differences may be really significant. I don't think we should get bogged down on it too much at this stage. I think it is safe to say Superchargers are a benefit for Tesla, but how much really depends on location and use...
dennis
Model S Plaid
Personally I think the Tesla Supercharger advantage will last at least until 2020. A big part of that is convenience - the Nav tells you where to stop and for how long, you can see how busy each Supercharger is in real time, no charge cards or PINs and one 800 number to call if there are problems. There is only a minimal need to plan ahead if you are travelling to a new area.
The other advantage is network planning. Every charging network supplier knows who is charging/how long/how busy/etc. But according to a friend who works in Supercharger planning they also look at where Tesla's are charging away from home to determine places where superchargers are needed but not yet provisioned. Yet another advantage of two-way communication with every car in the fleet.
Over and out.
green1
Active Member
So in other words, about the time these new cars hit the road, the supercharger advantage won't be worth anything anymore... I see we actually agree then.
dennis
Model S Plaid
green1
Active Member
And people keep their cars for on average about 12 years. Not to mention, "2018" doesn't really sound likely.
I'm more optimistic about 2018. I think we may well see one to three British/German premium BEVs next year, at least in some markets. Of course the bulk of them are destined for ~2020.
I think I-Pace and e-tron quattro may be out in 2018. And I still think the charging network will not really be an issue for many customers that are choosing between Tesla and these alternatives, that can charge at home or work regularily.
Of course EV charging in general remains a concern for the masses, but that includes Tesla as well.
So, many diverging views and opinions on this, as it should be. We shall see who was right eventually.
I think I-Pace and e-tron quattro may be out in 2018. And I still think the charging network will not really be an issue for many customers that are choosing between Tesla and these alternatives, that can charge at home or work regularily.
Of course EV charging in general remains a concern for the masses, but that includes Tesla as well.
So, many diverging views and opinions on this, as it should be. We shall see who was right eventually.
green1
Active Member
If they do manage 2018, it will pretty much be guaranteed to exist only in CARB states at that time, and it will be 2018 calendar year, not 2018 model year (as the 2018s will be hitting showrooms any minute now)
Interesting to see. The alternative theory is they will launch in Europe first. U.S. models often come 6-12 months later.
But with Tesla so strong in the U.S., perhaps they will switch priorities... or do as you suggest, we shall see.
dennis
Model S Plaid
Here is an informative article demonstrating the current challenges in using CCS charging for a 350 mile trip from San Jose to LA in a Chevy Bolt, including the author's conclusion:
Chevy Bolt EV: 800-mile trip in 238-mile electric car shows challenges remain
The CCS charging infrastructure needs to improve dramatically for the i-Pace and Q6 to be able to be driven more than 200 miles in a day without significant inconvenience.
Chevy Bolt EV: 800-mile trip in 238-mile electric car shows challenges remain
The CCS charging infrastructure needs to improve dramatically for the i-Pace and Q6 to be able to be driven more than 200 miles in a day without significant inconvenience.
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