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Japanese Model X crashed into motor cyclists - one killed on Sunday

hill

high fiber member
Apr 21, 2015
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758
either MT or TN
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bonaire

Active Member
Aug 24, 2013
2,482
1,076
USA
The current U.S. stat for vehicle fatalities is 11 per billion miles, which, with average yearly vehicle miles of 13473, would be 11 per 74000 vehicles per year.

So on a 300k vehicles fleet there should be 44 fatalities. Per year.

If Tesla brought this down to 10 fatalities in 3 years, they've already won the battle. And I don't think it's as high as 10 even.

Slanted stats.

First off, Tesla vehicles are bought by people who I would consider "above average". Intelligence, care, financial accumen, etc. They are not sold to all slices of the community. We just saw a post about a group of four girls who wrecked their parents Tesla driving to the prom (one died) and thus - it is starting to show mis-use and abuse as other vehicles. I presume the cheaper Teslas get, the more fatal accidents will occur as the bell-curve is filled in among the intelligence and awareness levels of the population (many years in the future as a vast # of people driving are in cars that were under $6000 when bought used). Given that many many fatal accidents are DUI related, Tesla is wanting to solve for this with AP where it will "if you get in and say nothing, it will take you to your next appointment" (per Elon). This implies if you get in late at night and can't talk, it will drive you home. Will it save lives? Only if AP can avoid ALL stopped vehicles, parked vehicles, trees, walls and shrubbery.
 

dgatwood

Member
Dec 20, 2017
981
1,125
Sunnyvale, ca
The current U.S. stat for vehicle fatalities is 11 per billion miles, which, with average yearly vehicle miles of 13473, would be 11 per 74000 vehicles per year.

So on a 300k vehicles fleet there should be 44 fatalities. Per year.

If Tesla brought this down to 10 fatalities in 3 years, they've already won the battle. And I don't think it's as high as 10 even.

I suspect that a big part of that is because drunk drivers don't usually die when AP is engaged. :)


Randall Munroe agrees about fearing people.

With that tagline, I felt sure you were going to link to this one:

xkcd: Self-Driving Issues
 

Electricfan

Active Member
Aug 24, 2013
1,251
378
Houston
When a human causes a fatal accident, their permit to drive is usuall revoked for a time period and in extreme cases they must re-apply for the license to regain permit. Same should apply to autopilot, otherwise we might have the same lunatic pilot driving in parallel in multiple cars simultaneously globally worldwide.

Stop and fix is the only way to evolve technology responsibly. Tesla should do a voluntary autopilot "recall" after so many incidents.
Agree completely. Tesla over-sold auto-pilot. Should never have been called that - people naturally think it means they don't have to drive the car. I hope Tesla gets slapped with heavy monetary penalties over recent crashes to save future lives. Tesla should post pictures of the Josh Brown accident plus the recent X crash on its website where it advertises autopilot - give buyers fair warning that AP is extremely dangerous if misused or over-relied on. I know that won't go over with most Tesla fans (I consider myself one, but not to the point of blaming victims of AP), but safeguarding future lives is all that matters. Recall AP and don't release it again until it is equal to or better than a human. And that means it won't drive the car under a tractor trailer or into a concrete barrier that any human would avoid.
 

hiroshiy

Active Member
Moderator
Apr 6, 2013
2,417
2,029
Tokyo, Japan
Agree completely. Tesla over-sold auto-pilot. Should never have been called that - people naturally think it means they don't have to drive the car. I hope Tesla gets slapped with heavy monetary penalties over recent crashes to save future lives. Tesla should post pictures of the Josh Brown accident plus the recent X crash on its website where it advertises autopilot - give buyers fair warning that AP is extremely dangerous if misused or over-relied on. I know that won't go over with most Tesla fans (I consider myself one, but not to the point of blaming victims of AP), but safeguarding future lives is all that matters. Recall AP and don't release it again until it is equal to or better than a human. And that means it won't drive the car under a tractor trailer or into a concrete barrier that any human would avoid.

>people naturally think it means they don't have to drive the car

Disagree. The car displays detailed explanation of autopilot and it's risks when you turn on auto steering. It NEVER works until you use the control panel and specifically select to enable auto steering, read the instructions, and then you need to AGREE and proceed. Only after that, you can enable autopilot.
 

Peteski

Active Member
Oct 2, 2017
3,539
2,403
UK, Milton Keynes
Agree completely. Tesla over-sold auto-pilot. Should never have been called that - people naturally think it means they don't have to drive the car. I hope Tesla gets slapped with heavy monetary penalties over recent crashes to save future lives. Tesla should post pictures of the Josh Brown accident plus the recent X crash on its website where it advertises autopilot - give buyers fair warning that AP is extremely dangerous if misused or over-relied on. I know that won't go over with most Tesla fans (I consider myself one, but not to the point of blaming victims of AP), but safeguarding future lives is all that matters. Recall AP and don't release it again until it is equal to or better than a human. And that means it won't drive the car under a tractor trailer or into a concrete barrier that any human would avoid.

They could perhaps change the name to make it more obvious that it’s not a self driving car. That’s as far as I agree with you.

As for humans being better, history tells us that they do sometimes drive into concrete barriers all by themselves. They also sometimes cross lanes and drive head on into other cars. They drift around in their lanes, they get distracted, they do all manner of stupid things. Nearly every day I have to react to some idiot to avoid a crash. AP used appropriately is very effective, but it does need human management. Recalling AP would probably cost more lives than it saves, but that’s hard to prove. What AP does do is provide a useful and effective driving aid for a sensible driver. It hasn’t tried to kill me yet and I certainly wouldn’t allow it to anyway, because I use it as instructed in the manual and realise that the name is just a marketing term. So yes change the name so that any fool can see that it’s not self-drive without having to read any instructions.
 
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Fellsteruk

Active Member
Feb 24, 2018
1,040
437
North West, UK
Tesla autopilot and emergency braking both crap. Autopilot should be allowed to operate in shadow mode only until they actually work.

Trying to save lives here. Autopilot has killed like 10 people per 300k vehicles sold. If that was an airbag ratio, there would be a recall.

Wrong wrong wrong

AP didn’t kill anyone anymore than a gun kills someone the stupid a$$ driver and person pulling the trigger killed.

People clearly forget the limitations of AP and use it as an excuse to to give up there responsibilities as the driver!
 
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Barklikeadog

Active Member
Jul 13, 2016
1,887
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PA
The current U.S. stat for vehicle fatalities is 11 per billion miles, which, with average yearly vehicle miles of 13473, would be 11 per 74000 vehicles per year.

So on a 300k vehicles fleet there should be 44 fatalities. Per year.

If Tesla brought this down to 10 fatalities in 3 years, they've already won the battle. And I don't think it's as high as 10 even.
Except the current US stat includes teenagers, drunk drivers and elderly.... which greatly skew the numbers when you compare it to a group of drivers who are age 30-60 with a household
income of 300k. If you compared Model X deadly accidents to Volvo XC90 deadly accidents... Volvo wins. Do they have Autopilot? No, they have middle aged higher income drivers.
 
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S4WRXTTCS

Well-Known Member
May 3, 2015
5,997
7,237
Snohomish, WA
Except the current US stat includes teenagers, drunk drivers and elderly.... which greatly skew the numbers when you compare it to a group of drivers who are age 30-60 with a household
income of 300k. If you compared Model X deadly accidents to Volvo XC90 deadly accidents... Volvo wins. Do they have Autopilot? No, they have middle aged higher income drivers.

Volvo does have an Autopilot system. It's called Pilot assist 2. It's not considered as good as the Tesla AP system, and as a result it's less likely to lead to a driver being distracted.

Volvo has a really cool ambition of ZERO deaths in their cars. So their entire goal is more about safety than about autonomous vehicles. Currently their AEB system is regarded as the best in the business, and that's likely because they focused a lot of attention on it.

Those two things combined would lead me to believe that the Volvo is indeed safer. Will it remain so as Volvo improves their Pilot Assist 2? I hope so.

As to the drivers I think it has to be pointed out that Tesla drivers tend to be in the STEM fields, and predominately male. I don't think we're the great drivers that people make us out to be. In my experience of being a tech person, and knowing tech people leads me to believe we're not very good drivers. In some cases it's part of the attraction to a Tesla where they want technology to be their savior.
 

Barklikeadog

Active Member
Jul 13, 2016
1,887
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PA
Volvo does have an Autopilot system. It's called Pilot assist 2. It's not considered as good as the Tesla AP system, and as a result it's less likely to lead to a driver being distracted.

Volvo has a really cool ambition of ZERO deaths in their cars. So their entire goal is more about safety than about autonomous vehicles. Currently their AEB system is regarded as the best in the business, and that's likely because they focused a lot of attention on it.

Those two things combined would lead me to believe that the Volvo is indeed safer. Will it remain so as Volvo improves their Pilot Assist 2? I hope so.

As to the drivers I think it has to be pointed out that Tesla drivers tend to be in the STEM fields, and predominately male. I don't think we're the great drivers that people make us out to be. In my experience of being a tech person, and knowing tech people leads me to believe we're not very good drivers. In some cases it's part of the attraction to a Tesla where they want technology to be their savior.

The Volvo XC90 had zero driver deaths for several years, well before pro-pilot or whatever it is. Demographics play a bigger role than the car. There are surveys out there
of Tesla drivers... far and away 35-55 white male agi 300K. If the XC 90 were a cool car that a teenager could buy for $5k, then there will be deaths a plenty, doesn't matter
how 'safe' the car is
 

Sc0rPs

Member
Mar 12, 2018
38
16
Vancouver
Tesla autopilot and emergency braking both crap. Autopilot should be allowed to operate in shadow mode only until they actually work.

Trying to save lives here. Autopilot has killed like 10 people per 300k vehicles sold. If that was an airbag ratio, there would be a recall.

Way too much of a biased response, each case is almost unique and often still driver error not paying attention to take back control.

Even if autopilot was completely at fault, 10 deaths per 300k (if true) is still significantly less than human piloted.
 

Peteski

Active Member
Oct 2, 2017
3,539
2,403
UK, Milton Keynes
Volvo does have an Autopilot system. It's called Pilot assist 2. It's not considered as good as the Tesla AP system, and as a result it's less likely to lead to a driver being distracted.

Volvo has a really cool ambition of ZERO deaths in their cars. So their entire goal is more about safety than about autonomous vehicles. Currently their AEB system is regarded as the best in the business, and that's likely because they focused a lot of attention on it.

Those two things combined would lead me to believe that the Volvo is indeed safer. Will it remain so as Volvo improves their Pilot Assist 2? I hope so.

Volvo Pilot Assist 2 is a very recent feature and not very effective. I tested it for a weekend and without going into detail, it's way behind AP in capability. I found it so annoying playing "ping-pong" along the lane I ended up switching it off.

I didn't test Volvo AEB, but I can imagine it works well. Apparently it can actively steer away from an imminent collision, which may or may not be helpful at the critical moment.

For me as a driver, I'm happy with the safety level of both Tesla and Volvo. I agree with the other poster that driver demographics are the key to active safety in cars and Volvo has a great advantage in attracting the middle aged conservative set.
 
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Barklikeadog

Active Member
Jul 13, 2016
1,887
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PA
Volvo Pilot Assist 2 is a very recent feature and not very effective. I tested it for a weekend and without going into detail, it's way behind AP in capability. I found it so annoying playing "ping-pong" along the lane I ended up switching it off.

I didn't test Volvo AEB, but I can imagine it works well. Apparently it can actively steer away from an imminent collision, which may or may not be helpful at the critical moment.

For me as a driver, I'm happy with the safety level of both Tesla and Volvo. I agree with the other poster that driver demographics are the key to active safety in cars and Volvo has a great advantage in attracting the middle aged conservative set.

Wow... I feel like I've made a breakthrough. Someone else here(besides every insurance company, but hey what do they know) actually thinks demographics play the biggest role
in automotive safety. Whew, I need a drink.
 
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Peteski

Active Member
Oct 2, 2017
3,539
2,403
UK, Milton Keynes
Wow... I feel like I've made a breakthrough. Someone else here(besides every insurance company, but hey what do they know) actually thinks demographics play the biggest role
in automotive safety. Whew, I need a drink.

Insurance companies know very well about driver demographics and hence why premiums generally get lower as you age. I can insure my £100K Tesla for less than a teenager can insure their £5K hatch. The guy behind the wheel is by far and away the most important factor in active safety (not to be confused with passive safety, which is 100% vehicle related).
 
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Electricfan

Active Member
Aug 24, 2013
1,251
378
Houston
They could perhaps change the name to make it more obvious that it’s not a self driving car. That’s as far as I agree with you.

As for humans being better, history tells us that they do sometimes drive into concrete barriers all by themselves. They also sometimes cross lanes and drive head on into other cars. They drift around in their lanes, they get distracted, they do all manner of stupid things. Nearly every day I have to react to some idiot to avoid a crash. AP used appropriately is very effective, but it does need human management. Recalling AP would probably cost more lives than it saves, but that’s hard to prove. What AP does do is provide a useful and effective driving aid for a sensible driver. It hasn’t tried to kill me yet and I certainly wouldn’t allow it to anyway, because I use it as instructed in the manual and realise that the name is just a marketing term. So yes change the name so that any fool can see that it’s not self-drive without having to read any instructions.

Sure, humans wreck cars. That in no way excuses a car manufacturer from responsibility for deaths that occur when their software is driving the car. Yes AP can be used safely. But you have to take responsibility for how a product is likely to be used, not just how its supposed to be used. If Tesla's warnings weren't so low-key I could possibly agree with you. But they give a very rosy picture on the website, and call it Auto-Pilot - way too lofty a title for what its actual capabilities are. I hope the court teaches Tesla a lesson, and soon, so more lives aren't lost.
 
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Electricfan

Active Member
Aug 24, 2013
1,251
378
Houston
>people naturally think it means they don't have to drive the car

Disagree. The car displays detailed explanation of autopilot and it's risks when you turn on auto steering. It NEVER works until you use the control panel and specifically select to enable auto steering, read the instructions, and then you need to AGREE and proceed. Only after that, you can enable autopilot.

So, after a year of using AP, do you think people think of those words they read once, the first time they enabled AP? I don't think so. I'm pretty sure Joshua Brown did not remember those once-read words. But since he's dead by decapitation we can't know for certain.
 
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