JB Straubel- Model 3 will be mostly NEW technology

[EVNow]

Seems to me he is laying down the argument for why it is a lot of hard work and thus can get late.

 

[stopcrazypp]

I agree partly with your characterization but I was somewhat surprised by the degree JB emphasized "new". For example, we all know the Model 3 platform will be smaller but to the extent they implement any significant new technology
in the battery pack design many would consider that a mild surprise.

He didn't say how significant it was, so I'm not sure how much of a departure this statement would be in comparison to what we have heard for a while now.

More specifically:

"We're inventing a whole new platform": this is a given, the "gen 3" platform will be a whole new platform, not just a shrunken version of the Model S/X platform.

"it's a new battery architecture": we have already heard Tesla will use slightly larger cells (not the 18650 in use since the Roadster days) and also a different lithium ion cell chemistry (as gigafactory is tooling for). The only major departure from this is if they go with the large format pouch cells like the large automakers or use some other battery type (like lithium air or lithium sulfur).

"it's a new motor technology": this is the line that contradicts with speculation that the smaller AWD motor will be used in Model 3. However, recently there have been rumors that Tesla is doing a different motor for the Model 3.

"brand new vehicle structure"
The platform has been said to be smaller and use less aluminum than the Model S/X platform, which obviously means a new vehicle structure.

 

[Yggdrasill]

It is possible Tesla is developing a new ~300 hp rear drive unit for the Model 3. That means they can offer the following variants (hp ratings obviously guesstimated):

Base Model 3: 200 hp rear motor
Higher spec RWD Model 3: 300 hp rear motor
Cheap AWD Model 3: 200 hp front motor, 200 hp rear motor
Performance AWD Model 3: 200 hp front motor, 300 hp rear motor

It's also possible they'll just be tweaking the small high efficiency motor. Improving the producibility, cooling, reliability, etc. I guess we'll know more in a few months.

Aside from "new motor technology", the other stuff was pretty much known already.

 

[Grendal]

He didn't say how significant it was, so I'm not sure how much of a departure this statement would be in comparison to what we have heard for a while now.

More specifically:

"We're inventing a whole new platform": this is a given, the "gen 3" platform will be a whole new platform, not just a shrunken version of the Model S/X platform.

"it's a new battery architecture": we have already heard Tesla will use slightly larger cells (not the 18650 in use since the Roadster days) and also a different lithium ion cell chemistry (as gigafactory is tooling for). The only major departure from this is if they go with the large format pouch cells like the large automakers or use some other battery type (like lithium air or lithium sulfur).

"it's a new motor technology": this is the line that contradicts with speculation that the smaller AWD motor will be used in Model 3. However, recently there have been rumors that Tesla is doing a different motor for the Model 3.

"brand new vehicle structure"
The platform has been said to be smaller and use less aluminum than the Model S/X platform, which obviously means a new vehicle structure.

Thank you. Exactly what I was thinking. I'm fairly confident that Tesla will not go to the large format pouch format. The cells are rumored to be larger as you mentioned.

- - - Updated - - -

It is possible Tesla is developing a new ~300 hp rear drive unit for the Model 3. That means they can offer the following variants (hp ratings obviously guesstimated):

Base Model 3: 200 hp rear motor
Higher spec RWD Model 3: 300 hp rear motor
Cheap AWD Model 3: 200 hp front motor, 200 hp rear motor
Performance AWD Model 3: 200 hp front motor, 300 hp rear motor

It's also possible they'll just be tweaking the small high efficiency motor. Improving the producibility, cooling, reliability, etc. I guess we'll know more in a few months.

Aside from "new motor technology", the other stuff was pretty much known already.

OMG Don't start the horsepower argument over here!

The new motor is very intriguing. The motors are already incredibly efficient. There is an over heating issue that causes the Model S to go into a low power mode so maybe something to counteract that.

 

[tonybelding]

I was just watching the video and found this howler where he speaks of the Model X:

This is a sport utility vehicle that we've built on the same platform as Model S, so we were able to do it relatively quickly...

I guess Tesla operates in a different time continuum where a product can be developed "relatively quickly" and arrive two years late?

 

[tftf]

Does anyone still believe this car will actually be released in 2017 (and by that I mean a real release where hundreds/thousands of customers are getting their Model 3 in the first months, not a "photo op" release the Model X got back in September)?

My prediction remains 2018-2020 for the Model 3, with mid- to late 2018 the earliest realistic release date.

And as with the Model X, during the first months or even the first year there could well be no base price Model 3 cars available for ordering imho, the ASP for the early Model 3 cars could be around $50k or even above that.

To sum up, the "actual" Model 3 at $35k base pricing could only be available by late 2019 or even 2020.

 

[Grendal]

I was just watching the video and found this howler where he speaks of the Model X:

I guess Tesla operates in a different time continuum where a product can be developed "relatively quickly" and arrive two years late?

Elon is optimistic and, while late, there are a lot of good reasons that it happened.

There is also a lot of reasons that the Model 3 will be much more on time.

 

[ratsbew]

They probably mean they won't go adding unneeded things like auto-opening or crab-leg-hinge doors.

hahaha, I'm cracking up imagining Elon calling them "crab leg hinge doors" on stage!

 

[Grendal]

Does anyone still believe this car will actually be released in 2017 (and by that I mean a real release where hundreds/thousands of customers are getting their Model 3 in the first months, not a "photo op" release the Model X got back in September)?

My prediction remains 2018-2020 for the Model 3, with mid- to late 2018 the earliest realistic release date.

And as with the Model X, during the first months or even the first year there could well be no base price Model 3 cars available for ordering imho, the ASP for the early Model 3 cars could be around $50k or even above that.

To sum up, the "actual" Model 3 at $35k base pricing could only be available by late 2019 or even 2020.

I agree with most of your points. You could spin it the opposite way too, does anyone really think that there will be a massive initial production? Or will there be a long slow ramp to thousands of cars a month?

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I was just watching the video and found this howler where he speaks of the Model X:



I guess Tesla operates in a different time continuum where a product can be developed "relatively quickly" and arrive two years late?

Not being a real engineer, I can't tell say whether what Tesla _actually_ did was relatively quickly, but I can suggest that if you treat Elon Musk Time as asymptotic, it might give a better perspective.

- - - Updated - - -

Does anyone still believe this car will actually be released in 2017 (and by that I mean a real release where hundreds/thousands of customers are getting their Model 3 in the first months, not a "photo op" release the Model X got back in September)?

My prediction remains 2018-2020 for the Model 3, with mid- to late 2018 the earliest realistic release date.

And as with the Model X, during the first months or even the first year there could well be no base price Model 3 cars available for ordering imho, the ASP for the early Model 3 cars could be around $50k or even above that.

To sum up, the "actual" Model 3 at $35k base pricing could only be available by late 2019 or even 2020.

I'm crossing my fingers for a base model by mid 2019, so that my Prius' battery warranty c will have a few months to run.

Furthermore, I would add that I love JB Straubel, and it's great to see another video, with more information. It's worth noting his comments that they've had most people working on the Model 3 for a couple of years, so it's not like they've just started the Model 3 now that the X has been launched.

 

[Trev Page]

I was just watching the video and found this howler where he speaks of the Model X:



I guess Tesla operates in a different time continuum where a product can be developed "relatively quickly" and arrive two years late?

Well, technically they did build the prototype quickly on the same Model S platform. The X however was delayed because Model S demand took off and the extra stuff they got carried away with.

Model 3, despite being a new platform, is supposed to be a simpler vehicle with ease of build in mind and they've also learned a lot over the last few years of building Model S as to what to do and not do.

I'm fairly confident they will show a working prototype in the spring. The late 2017 release however I think will be more of a photo op like Model X with ramp up happening in the spring of 2018. My lease on the current vehicle runs out in April 2018 so I plan on putting a deposit down at the unveil and hope it starts deliveries in early 2018. If not I can wait, I have another car to drive that's paid for.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

"it's a new motor technology": this is the line that contradicts with speculation that the smaller AWD motor will be used in Model 3. However, recently there have been rumors that Tesla is doing a different motor for the Model 3.

I remember that Elon was directly asked if the small motor in the Dual Motor Model S would be the basis for the Model 3 motor, and Elon's answer was that they were going with a next-generation unit.

 

[Lerxt]

Seems to me he is laying down the argument for why it is a lot of hard work and thus can get late.

I guess some people just can't be happy unless they are complaining.

 

[wdolson]

Not being a real engineer, I can't tell say whether what Tesla _actually_ did was relatively quickly, but I can suggest that if you treat Elon Musk Time as asymptotic, it might give a better perspective.

It's not unusual for engineers to be overly optimistic about schedules. Most engineering R&D efforts of any size is usually late. Elon Musk is on the extreme end of the bell curve as far as being overly optimistic about schedules. He tends to make schedules by making an assumption of what each step will take which is usually on the most optimistic end of the spectrum, then add all those up assuming 12-16 hour days with no time for engineers to take bathroom breaks and no time for unexpected events or discovering some facet of the design needs to be redone. Hence Tesla schedules end up going off the rails.

Elon needs to hire an assistant who is better at estimates than he is and empower them to hit him over the head if he tries to compress the schedule without making changes to the design.

 

[stevezzzz]

Elon needs to hire an assistant who is better at estimates than he is and empower them to hit him over the head if he tries to compress the schedule without making changes to the design.

But as any development engineer can tell you, "change to the design" is a leading cause of schedule slip...

 

[wdolson]

But as any development engineer can tell you, "change to the design" is a leading cause of schedule slip...

I am a development engineer. That is one thing that can cause major schedule problems, but frequently even if there are no changes of any significance schedules can slip. I've been on projects that suffered from feature creep and projects that didn't. The ones with feature creep blew the schedules the horribly, but many other times there were schedule failures for other reasons. The worst schedule slip I ever went through was due to mismanagement of the company and team cohesion problems (mostly due to the horrible corporate culture that extended from the CEO on down).

Elon Musk is bad about feature creep, but he's also overly optimistic about schedules too.

 

[Yoda101]

I was just watching the video and found this howler where he speaks of the Model X:



I guess Tesla operates in a different time continuum where a product can be developed "relatively quickly" and arrive two years late?

Elon is optimistic and, while late, there are a lot of good reasons that it happened.

There is also a lot of reasons that the Model 3 will be much more on time.

JB mentions the biggest problem around 58:00 relating to the difficulty in engineering the high volume production which will dwarf the problem of the new design.

 

[Model 3]

Does anyone still believe this car will actually be released in 2017 (and by that I mean a real release where hundreds/thousands of customers are getting their Model 3 in the first months, not a "photo op" release the Model X got back in September)?

Yes, I still believe this car will actually be released in 2017. But NO, I don't believe thousands of customers will be getting their Model 3 in the first months after the release. That's not how Teslas releases works.

When other car companies releases a new model, their factory has already been producing the new model for some time, and they have cars ready to be send to the dealers (or already at the dealers). When Tesla releases a new model they have just started the production-line(s), and have the first few cars ready for delivery, and ordinary customers will then be able to configure their cars. After the release there will be a slow ramp up in the production. The ramp up for the Model 3 will continue till after the GF-I is fully operational in about 2020.

I do hope it will be deliveries in the hundreds the first few month, but it will still be an actual release even if it's only 199 or just 99.

 

[Breezy]

I don't believe the Model 3 will be released to customers in any form in 2017. I have some hope for 2018.

The challenge with the III is cost reduction. That's a tremendous challenge for Tesla, which is to date a boutique manufacturer that's built fewer than 100,000 cars in its entire history.

Don't underestimate the difficulty of designing and building mass market cars profitably.

 

[ScepticMatt]

The only major departure from this is if they go with the large format pouch cells like the large automakers or use some other battery type (like lithium air or lithium sulfur).

Not going to happen, and not just because the technology isn't ready yet. What everyone conveniently seems to forget is the poor volumetric energy densities those battery types have.
They aren't competitive now, and the Model 3 packs will have a 40% volumetric energy density improvement over the Model S packs - according to JB Straubel.

Well, unless you use a "air cathode", but that brings a whole lot of other issues.

The theoretical amount of energy stored when cycling between a 0 M and a saturated solution (5.25 M at 25◦C) of aqueous LiOH is about 430 Wh/kg and 475 Wh/L. Although an oxygen tank is, strictly speaking, not part of a Li/air cell, including its mass and volume in the calculation underscores the potentially large disparity in the energy density of closed vs. open systems. We assume the use of a stainless steel oxygen tank in the shape of a 1.25 m-long cylinder with two hemispherical ends

http://www.eosenergystorage.com/documents/2012_JES_Christensen_Kojic_Critical_Review_Li-air.pdf

Panasonic NCR 1860C: 676 Wh/l

http://industrial.panasonic.com/lecs/www-data/pdf2/ACA4000/ACA4000CE417.pdf