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June 20th Speculation

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by ShortSlaver, May 31, 2013.

  1. ShortSlaver

    ShortSlaver Member

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    Might as well have a thread speculating about the June 20th announcement and the impact on the stock.

    For investors it's interesting as June options expire later that week so there's a catalyst. Depending on your point of view the stock is in buy mode right now - or potentially in a bearish trend slowly descending after a significant crash on Wednesday. However, keep in mind this stock shot to $97 and fell back to $85 just recently. It has demonstrated this pattern a few times recently - not that past trends have any meaningful impact on the future.

    So, there's certainly some interesting plays here. The news is pretty far off so I suspect a lot of people are in a wait and see mode.
     
  2. Causalien

    Causalien Reaper of Trolls

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    My guess. Gen III named and open for signature reservation.
     
  3. Jonathan Hewitt

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    IV is still super high. If the stock hangs out here for a while maybe the volitility will die off. Based on the last couple months I doubt this will happen...
     
  4. Causalien

    Causalien Reaper of Trolls

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    IV at 1. HV above 1. Never seen this before. My guess is, that things slowly melt down or up. A huge move will just increase the volatilities and I didn't think it can go above 1 before. Mathematically, something is wrong.
     
  5. ShortSlaver

    ShortSlaver Member

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    Yeah it's nuts. I mean, the market pretty much assumes this stock could move either way in a heartbeat - which it has done both ways this week alone.

    I'm holding some June Calls I didn't buy at a great price looking at it now. I brought my basis down quite a bit buying some more recently, but still out of pocket quite a bit on them. Which is OK as enough has come back in the last couple months it's risk-taking money meant to be used like this. With that, I don't want to lose it all but I'm hanging onto them.

    I feel like the stock is teetering a bit but it hasn't collapsed. There's some support and I'm hoping we see a big bull push. Would be nice if the markets in general would cooperate.

    As for the announcement, I have no idea. Initially (if this is the under your nose bit) it seemed like it would be a minor thing. Elon eluded to that it would just be a little fun thing. But at this point he's saying it's something that needs to be in-person.

    I don't know if it's Gen 3 related though - although Elon has been sort of coy on Gen 3 lately. I think that's part of the markets sort of sideways action too. People don't want to hear 3-5 years. They want to hear 2-3 years.

    Perhaps a partnership announcement?

    I'm open to speculation though. :)
     
  6. Rifleman

    Rifleman Now owns 2 Model S's!!!

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    My guesses on the possibilities (in no particular order)

    1. Al-Air swappable battery
    2. Model X Beta unveiling
    3. Gen III naming, concept art, and opening of reservation list (least likely in my opinion)
    4. New features for the Model S, such as adaptive cruise control and parking sensors. Existing cars with tech package get retrofitted for free.
    5. Award Ceremony for those who drove 400 miles on one charge. They will each be awarded with the new 110 kWh battery that is now available for purchase with with any new Model S.
    6. Something else that I have absolutely no idea about. (most likely option)
     
  7. Andrew

    Andrew Model S #6151

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    I've been out of town and am trying to catch up with all the announcements and speculation: Is the June 20th announcement different than the "under your nose" announcement?
     
  8. ShortSlaver

    ShortSlaver Member

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    No idea, but I do believe Elon has referenced it as the fifth part of his 5-part trilogy of announcements.
     
  9. johnnydop

    johnnydop Member

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    Dont think so, he said it was the last of his 5 part trilogy, which he stated was "under your nose".

    Whats interesting is that when asked about the hyperloop transport idea on Squawk Box this morning he again mentioned (also at D11) that he didnt want to talk about it until after the Jun 20th announcement which leads me to believe they are related somehow, perhaps in a technology sense.
     
  10. gregincal

    gregincal Active Member

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    Not necessarily. He's stated that he doesn't want the focus to go away from Tesla, so he's going to wait until they're done with their series of announcements.
     
  11. moltenfire

    moltenfire Member

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    Implying that the June 20th announcement is not revolutionary enough to stand on its own compared to the hyperloop.
     
  12. toastypasta

    toastypasta Member

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    Hyperloop would be more revolutionary than Tesla.
    He stated that after June 20th there are no more Tesla updates for a while so he wants to keep focus for now and then he can worry about hyperloop which i'm pretty sure is just a maglev train in a vacuum.
     
  13. Runarbt

    Runarbt Member

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    Or that the june 20th will connect tesla with the hyperloop? ;-) each gen III will also double up as a hyperloop unit, and get hyperspeed for free?!;-) = TSLA at $ 1000 billions in no time.:-O

    Hyperloop your way to europe in your own Gen III unit, then connect to the EU SC network for regular road travel also for free! = world domination and byebye chrysler/bmw/Toyota/Volvo/etc.
     
  14. Yuri_G

    Yuri_G Member

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  15. cdabel

    cdabel Member

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    Could be unveiling the European version of the Model S. The first deliveries are supposed to be in July and they take about five weeks by ship, so they may be just starting to come off the line about that time.
     
  16. ppl

    ppl Member

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    Have no answers but what I find strange is him setting the date so far in advance. Even cc are with less notic than this. Could it be ship leaving for Europe full of cars? Timing would be right
     
  17. ShortSlaver

    ShortSlaver Member

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    The hyperloop sounds mostly like a super conducted rail gun with a magnetic carriage as projectile with Faraday cage encasing the passengers.

    In short, a coilgun (this this case, a quench gun as it is super conducted) where the projectile is a coach providing multiple classes of service.

    Coilgun - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
     
  18. DaveT

    DaveT Searcher of green pastures

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    June 20th announcement, I think, is definitely the 5th announcement ("under your nose") and has to do with an improvement to existing Model S cars already out there. Elon has said current Model S owners will be happy.

    It's also a demonstration with an in-person press conference.
     
  19. sleepyhead

    sleepyhead Active Member

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    Don't mean to spoil the fun (of speculating), but I am 99% sure that it will be the unveiling of the Model X beta.

    Elon said during that last conference call: "Well, we certainly are making progress on the Model X. Our focus in the second quarter is to finalize the design, so it will be internal economics and the shape of the car."

    And since it is an "in-person" event they have to be showing something physical. There is a 1% chance that this will be a gen 3 prototype; although I personally would place the odds closer to 0%.
     
  20. kenliles

    kenliles Active Member

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    could be that, along with a 4 wheel drive option for the S (under your nose)
     

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