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June 20th Speculation

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Why is 45s such a surprise?
Battery is a big and heavy module held in place by ~30 bolts that can be un/screwed simultaneously in ~5 seconds.
That leaves half a minute to un/plug the battery, move it out/in (and align with a car)
Battery electric connection is just like a wall socket and a plug. It is just bigger same with coolant - there ain't no cables/hoses to dis/connect.
 
If this is pulled off without a hitch, then watch out for sales of the Model S.

As other have mentioned, swap is unlikely to be used predominantly or exclusively except on rare occasions (long distance travel outside the range of Superchargers AND/OR taxi service/towncar service).

With that being said, the IDEA of fast swap is going to really inspire people to think of the Model S as a "no compromise" car.
 
Why is 45s such a surprise?
Battery is a big and heavy module held in place by ~30 bolts that can be un/screwed simultaneously in ~5 seconds.
That leaves half a minute to un/plug the battery, move it out/in (and align with a car)
Battery electric connection is just like a wall socket and a plug. It is just bigger same with coolant - there ain't no cables/hoses to dis/connect.
Exactly. I bet this can even be done faster some time from now.
 
If this is pulled off without a hitch, then watch out for sales of the Model S.

As other have mentioned, swap is unlikely to be used predominantly or exclusively except on rare occasions (long distance travel outside the range of Superchargers AND/OR taxi service/towncar service).

With that being said, the IDEA of fast swap is going to really inspire people to think of the Model S as a "no compromise" car.

Agreed. If you driving 400 miles then one or two 30 minute charges isnt a big deal, but if your driving very far, say600+ miles, then making multiple 30 min stops could add up to lots of wasted time which is exactly why a swap might be preferred.

The idea is that it gives drivers more choice and it tailors to those that dont want to wait and are willing to pay for a recharge. The more choices the more potential customers you can lure in especially since it doesnt look like it'll be capital intensive to roll out. Elon said it would cost between 50-100 million. He said it wasnt cheap, but wasnt too much money either especially considering they have over 500mm after paying off the DOE. Now thats a great way to put your cash to work.
 
Swap is 100% necessary for the future. with .5M or 1M+ Tesla's on the road there has to be a high speed solution, a 30 minute wait to charge would create massive lines of cars backed up waiting.

Look at today's gas stations, many with 20+ pumps and it takes 5-10 minutes to fill up, yet you still have to wait in line sometimes. Imagine pulling into a SuperCharger and each line is 4 cars deep. Would I pay $40-$80 to swap so I didn't have to wait in that line for 2 hours? Absolutely. It's not always about the financial cost to drive. The larger issue is the environmental impact to drive. Paying the equivalent fuel/gas fill-up to swap is an easy sell.

I'm a solar installer and we in the solar industry have been dreaming of affordable grid (and off grid) storage for years. There will be a huge market for 80% capacity Tesla batteries that have been taken out of swap circulation in our industry. They will be recycled into a place where weight doesn't matter. Elon is brilliant and I have no doubt he has thought this through and has an exciting plan.
 
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If this is pulled off without a hitch, then watch out for sales of the Model S.

As other have mentioned, swap is unlikely to be used predominantly or exclusively except on rare occasions (long distance travel outside the range of Superchargers AND/OR taxi service/towncar service).

With that being said, the IDEA of fast swap is going to really inspire people to think of the Model S as a "no compromise" car.

This + 100.

It doesn't matter what the statistics are on long trips taken, total drive time, or length of the average rest stop. It doesn't matter whether TMC members think its a good idea. It doesn't even matter how many people end up using it.

The American driver does not like to be told what they can't do with their car. Period.

If everyone made car purchases rationally, there would be no market for SUVs.
 
Swap is 100% necessary for the future. with .5M or 1M+ Tesla's on the road there has to be a high speed solution, a 30 minute wait to charge would create massive lines of cars backed up waiting.

Only if you pretty much call Elon a liar (or at least an idealist) during the SuperCharger announcements.

Elon: "we want to generate more energy from the sun over the cause of the year than is used by Model S's that recharge at the station"


A SuperCharger that is drawing in more power than it distributes, by solar math, will have to be physically larger than the maximum peak usage of that SuperCharger. The moment lines start to form, that SuperCharger can't possibly draw in more energy than it uses - not even if you put it in the middle of Nevada.

Swapping doesn't actually change this, except if swapping is outright not being supported by Solar power. Knowing what you know of Elon, how likely do you think it would be for him to support a system that would rely on grid power?
 
Only if you pretty much call Elon a liar (or at least an idealist) during the SuperCharger announcements.

Elon: "we want to generate more energy from the sun over the cause of the year than is used by Model S's that recharge at the station"


A SuperCharger that is drawing in more power than it distributes, by solar math, will have to be physically larger than the maximum peak usage of that SuperCharger. The moment lines start to form, that SuperCharger can't possibly draw in more energy than it uses - not even if you put it in the middle of Nevada.

Swapping doesn't actually change this, except if swapping is outright not being supported by Solar power. Knowing what you know of Elon, how likely do you think it would be for him to support a system that would rely on grid power?

The solar panels do not have to be located at the station. They can install huge solar farms hundreds of miles away and as long as they are feeding that energy back into the grid they can still claim that they are being charged with solar. They don't even have to install the solar, they can buy the solar rights from people who do own the solar.

Many of the existing SuperChargers do not have solar right now.
 
The solar panels do not have to be located at the station. They can install huge solar farms hundreds of miles away and as long as they are feeding that energy back into the grid they can still claim that they are being charged with solar. They don't even have to install the solar, they can buy the solar rights from people who do own the solar.

And that's what Elon said they will do in places like Norway where they would have to, since there is not enough sunlight. But that certainly does not apply to California.

At $2000 per car (actually even $1500 per car), there is plenty of money to build enough SuperChargers all covered with Solar Panels, for a system that is sized at peak demand and running solar positive, without buying any net additional power from another party.

Why do you think that Tesla would now need to do something else instead?


Many of the existing SuperChargers do not have solar right now.

The Solar installation is meant to trail the SuperCharger installation by 18 months.
 
The fact they can demonstrate a "recharge" of the battery faster than a tank of gas can be filled by the fastest gas pump around is pretty impressive. I'm not 100% what the practicality of it all is, but it's a nice confidence inspiring test.

Less than 45 seconds? Amazing if true.
 
The fact they can demonstrate a "recharge" of the battery faster than a tank of gas can be filled by the fastest gas pump around is pretty impressive. I'm not 100% what the practicality of it all is, but it's a nice confidence inspiring test.

Less than 45 seconds? Amazing if true.

Surprising for many, sure. I did some rough design sketches for a possible swapping/storing/charging mechanism for fun. It was, in the end, not very complex and it certainly looked like it was possible to swap a battery pack in a car that was designed for it already in under one minute. It's just apparent that battery swapping can't be tacked on as an afterthought. And that's what demonstrates Elon's planning and designing abilities the best. He thinks things through, from start to end. Though, it's probably the other way round: Knowing what is to be achieved and then find ways, "backwards" from step to step until he comes out at the status quo. Then it is "just" work to do. And a lot of it :) .
 
The fact they can demonstrate a "recharge" of the battery faster than a tank of gas can be filled by the fastest gas pump around is pretty impressive. I'm not 100% what the practicality of it all is, but it's a nice confidence inspiring test.

Less than 45 seconds? Amazing if true.

I'm with you on that one. Looks like they will make it a great marketing tool and the demo will be impressive engineering. The they'll need to work on the opposite message it sends (even if not true)- SuperCharging alone is insufficient to own a Tesla- you'll have to decide when to swap the battery to make it home. I don't believe that's true of course, but I believe that's the message conveyed to those that don't know what is true and what is not - they don't see changing a battery fast as an engineering feat and most of those won't equate the switch of a $20,000 battery with filling the tank- that's a hard sell to the average non-EV buyer imo. I hope I'm wrong, if so, it would come through the concept that people are accustom to changing batteries in other devices and would equate to that experience instead. But currently I think the best they can hope for is a wash with an amazing demonstration. I'll admit- it'll be fun to see.
 
If you are attending tonight, the TesLA club is gathering at a local eatery before going over to the Design center.

If you can join us, drop an email to info @ Teslaclubla.com so we can squeeze you into the restaurant reservations.

Tesla Design Studio, Thursday, 6/20 @ 7:30pm
3203 Jack Northrop Avenue
Hawthorne, CA 90250

We will meet at the Marina del Rey Cheesecake Factory at 5:30pm:
4142 Vía Marina Marina Del Rey, CA 90292
http://locations.thecheesecakefactory.com/ca/marina-del-rey-2.html



The TeslaClubLA Team

 
A huge market for battery swaps will be taxi companies. They run their cars in two or three shifts, which limits the time for refueling. Fuel is their big cost and the price would plummet, if they had a fleet of electric cars with available battery swaps. They could have the swap stations in their own garages and simply circulate their own batteries. It may also result in lower taxi fares, which would increase the demand for taxi rides and therefore a need for more taxies. It's a big win for the taxi companies, their passengers and Tesla Motors.

This has already been done. Boston, Chicago and I belive NY had electric powered taxis all over the cities that would pull in for battery swaps. Not at all a new idea as these were running in the early nineteen hundreds.