Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

June 20th Speculation

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
The publication date for it is Feb 16, 2012.

The error was mine, I just put in Feb 16, instead of Feb 16, 2012 in my references on the clues page. I updated it now on:

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/17416-June-20th-Speculation/page4


Not to be nit picky, but I think even then those are publication dates, not filing dates for the patent - the patent filings appear to be +/- 2 years previous to the publication dates as per the US patent office website:

patft Page 1 of 1

Basically I'm suggesting that whether or not its a metal-air swap extender, they've considered and articulated the possibility some time ago.
 
I for one hope it's the metal air battery scenario. It would eliminate range anxiety once and for all and shut up any complaints about charging times at the supercharging stations. However, sadly, I still somehow doubt this will be the announcement. Seems like this technology is not yet fully developed or tested. Although it would be funny if the under your nose comment referred to the "air" beneath your nose.
 
I for one hope it's the metal air battery scenario. It would eliminate range anxiety once and for all and shut up any complaints about charging times at the supercharging stations. However, sadly, I still somehow doubt this will be the announcement. Seems like this technology is not yet fully developed or tested. Although it would be funny if the under your nose comment referred to the "air" beneath your nose.


if not battery swapping then what could the announcement be about?

What other theories have we come up with. Lets make a list.
 
You know, I keep seeing theories thrown out there that the "under your nose" thing means physically under your nose.

That's not how that saying is used.

When you tell someone "it's right under your nose", you are telling them "you can see it, but you are not recognizing what you are seeing.
 
For all the people pointing at the patents as "evidence" of a Al-Air battery that is swapped. I'd like to point out once again:
1) The patents specify a rechargeable metal-air battery. Al-Air is not rechargeable (Zn-Air and Li-Air are, but still need much more development).
2) The patents do not specify a separately swappable metal-air battery, but rather a "hybrid" battery pack.

And once again, there is absolutely zero evidence there's any power connections for a Al-Air battery pack in the frunk.

Battery swapping the main battery on the other hand has some evidence.
 
For all the people pointing at the patents as "evidence" of a Al-Air battery that is swapped. I'd like to point out once again:
1) The patents specify a rechargeable metal-air battery. Al-Air is not rechargeable (Zn-Air and Li-Air are, but still need much more development).
2) The patents do not specify a separately swappable metal-air battery, but rather a "hybrid" battery pack.

And once again, there is absolutely zero evidence there's any power connections for a Al-Air battery pack in the frunk.

Battery swapping the main battery on the other hand has some evidence.

1) Where? e.g.:
http://www.faqs.org/patents/app/20120041624

There is nothing in there that says that the metal-air has to be rechargeable. In fact, they compare-and-contrast it to a rechargeable battery.

2) It's probably difficult to claim "removing an existing depleted battery and inserting a new one in its place" in a new patent. I'm sure Duracell will have something to say about that...

- - - Updated - - -

Not to be nit picky, but I think even then those are publication dates, not filing dates for the patent - the patent filings appear to be +/- 2 years previous to the publication dates as per the US patent office website:

patft Page 1 of 1

Basically I'm suggesting that whether or not its a metal-air swap extender, they've considered and articulated the possibility some time ago.

No, that's a good nit. I fixed it:
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/17416-June-20th-Speculation/page4
 
Hyperloop would be more revolutionary than Tesla.
He stated that after June 20th there are no more Tesla updates for a while so he wants to keep focus for now and then he can worry about hyperloop which i'm pretty sure is just a maglev train in a vacuum.

He also indicated it may be driven by railgun technology. I wouldn't want to be in it if it accelerated at full railgun rate though.
 
1) Where? e.g.:
http://www.faqs.org/patents/app/20120041624

There is nothing in there that says that the metal-air has to be rechargeable. In fact, they compare-and-contrast it to a rechargeable battery.
Start reading from [0027]. It mentions charge cycles put on the metal-air battery specifically and everywhere in that patent assumes the metal-air battery is also rechargeable and the goal is to reduce the number of charge cycles put on the metal-air battery.

And they compare and contrast to a "conventional rechargeable battery", not rechargeable batteries overall. For example:
While metal-air cells offer a number of advantages over a conventional rechargeable battery, most notably their extremely high energy density, such cells also have a number of drawbacks. For example, care must be taken to avoid the undesired evaporation of electrolyte, especially in high temperature, low humidity environments. It is also necessary to ensure that there is a sufficient supply of air to the cells during discharge cycles, and means for handling the oxygen emitted from the cells during the charge cycles.
 
I keep obsessing on the date. Why not use shareholders meeting for a major announcement? Will there be a milestone reached by June 20th? 20 minutes to charge is great. I am not disappointed by that but musk is quite precise in his tweets. Ice cars fill their tanks in less than 20 minutes
 
I keep obsessing on the date. Why not use shareholders meeting for a major announcement? Will there be a milestone reached by June 20th? 20 minutes to charge is great. I am not disappointed by that but musk is quite precise in his tweets. Ice cars fill their tanks in less than 20 minutes

I think that the date is telling because it is the day before June options expire. It is a great time to surprise the market by revealing new revenue stream(s) that could have significant potential. (For longs, anyway.)
 
Could there be an announcement regarding Right Hand drive? After all, it is due by the end of this year, and would open up the markets of England, Australia, Hong Kong and Singapore and possibly India. To date, there is complete silence from the company on this particular score.

- - - Updated - - -

I for one hope it's the metal air battery scenario. It would eliminate range anxiety once and for all and shut up any complaints about charging times at the supercharging stations. However, sadly, I still somehow doubt this will be the announcement. Seems like this technology is not yet fully developed or tested. Although it would be funny if the under your nose comment referred to the "air" beneath your nose.
Apparently, those who have dismantled the frunk have found no evidence of any hidden cabling. There also does not appear to be any apertures to allow such cabling to be installed as aftermarket. I am not yet an owner, but this is from my reading of various posts here and on the company site.
 
not sure where to post this, either here, or in newbie option trading, so mods feel free to move.

Is anyone going to buy some calls based on this announcement? If so, and the price does go up, will there be a problem selling the calls on the friday before expiration? I ask as I am thinking about purchasing some calls, but do not have the capital to actually buy shares, and would have to sell the calls the next day.
 
Could there be an announcement regarding Right Hand drive?

Elon mentioned during the StockHolder meeting the right hand drive will be available in 2014 - 2015.


The June 20th announcement is unambiguously about fast charging - he confirmed today:

Q: You recently tweeted about that it may take less time charging a Model S would take actually less time than filling a tank of gas. Is the recent announcement that it is 20 minutes. Is that it now?
Elon: No. That is not it. That is not it. I would say, you should... I mentioned there will be an announcement on June 20th, in fact, not an announcement, but a demonstration. Live demonstration.

So it won't really help spending any more time on alternate theories. However, that theory by itself requires a lot of extra debate on how on earth it's possible :).
 
Here is a theory I'd propose: It seemed as if Elon ruled out a ultra-capacitor at the Shareholder meeting. He indicated that there were still issues with the technology at present. If that's the case, than the Frunk battery doesn't seem to be in the cards yet.

What if the June 20th announcement is a battery swap demo, but the twist is this: If you buy into the battery replacement program Tesla has (even though they have announced it, I don't think you can actually buy into it or get any real details), you get access to unlimited battery swaps and are guaranteed to get the best battery available. I would assume that with the level of data the car reports, the health of the battery is relatively easy for Tesla to determine.

The overall strategy would look like this: You want to take a road trip, you start out with your battery at a standard charge (Approx 90%). You go to a Supercharger and use that to get to your destination. But once you are there, instead of hunting around for a charging station and worrying about what your state of charge is, you roll up to a Tesla service center (I think Elon said they will have 75 open by the end of the year), then you do a swap out for a full battery pack in just a couple of minutes and are good to drive all around the city without any worry. When you are done visiting the city, you do another swap for a full pack and drive point-to-point via the Supercharger network and get back to your home. There you can either swap out the pack for a full one or just go home and charge. Tesla monitors the pack and guarantees that they will swap you back a pack that is about the same as your original one.

Maybe that's part of the reason there aren't that many Superchargers on the map in major cities (Where the service centers are). I would think all you would need would be a jig of some sort to swap the battery and you wouldn't need to carry that big of an inventory of battery packs to cover the swaps since each car would be leaving their pack behind in a swap. Storing 10 battery packs in a service center would not take up that much space since the packs are in a nice form factor. Cost would potentially be an issue, but with the capital they just raised (Elon said they have about $760million in cash now) they could build out the pack inventory.

Just a theory, but it seems like a more elegant one that combines battery swapping and the Supercharger network to eliminate a big hurdle to the longer range travel argument. I know there are big concerns people have about swapping their pack for one they have no knowledge of, but I would think Tesla would have good enough data to tell you what health your battery is in and find a way to alleviate the concern that you would be getting a pack worse than your original pack. I don't know how they will handle a 60kWh car vs. a 85kWh car, but this is just my dreaming about what might happen, so I won't try to solve every issue in this post!
 
@ Blurry_Eyed
That sounds like a very reasonable theory to me and would fit with past statements and something doable in the current timeline of events. (Of course I could be biased, anybody from Kirkland must be right :) )