The problem with battery swapping is that it turns people who possess a Model S from Owners to Renters. I think that goes against the drive and psychology of this demographic. They take pride in what they own, and if the battery is swapped, it is not really in their control, and not really theirs. Swapping decreases the perceived value of the car.
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June 20th Speculation
- Thread starter ShortSlaver
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Not if one can get his fully charged battery back during the return leg of the trip.
I think I would give up on Tesla Motors if they announce battery swaps. The idea is SO bad that I would short the stock. I am a Model S owner and a former Tesla Roadster owner and I love this product. But battery swaps will sink the company financially. The idea is really that bad.
The battery swap stations would need to be in convienent locations where someone is likely to want a battery swap. That will require land and stations. Right now the Supercharger stations make sense. Rent is either free or extremely cheap for Tesla Motors, according to Elon. I doubt that would be the case for battery swap stations.
On a battery swap station, they would need to be staffed by employees. There is no way I would risk using that process on an automated system while I am between cities. To justify having an employee working there, they would need to have a volume of a certain number of battery swaps per day each paying a fee for the process. They would need to have several packs, in every size for every model produced in the past few years, all ready to go at a moments notice.
This idea is just retarded to even consider.
The battery swap stations would need to be in convienent locations where someone is likely to want a battery swap. That will require land and stations. Right now the Supercharger stations make sense. Rent is either free or extremely cheap for Tesla Motors, according to Elon. I doubt that would be the case for battery swap stations.
On a battery swap station, they would need to be staffed by employees. There is no way I would risk using that process on an automated system while I am between cities. To justify having an employee working there, they would need to have a volume of a certain number of battery swaps per day each paying a fee for the process. They would need to have several packs, in every size for every model produced in the past few years, all ready to go at a moments notice.
This idea is just retarded to even consider.
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deonb
Active Member
I wouldn't go that far as to give up. I'm not a fan of battery swapping, and definitely not a fan of co-located superchargers / battery-swappers.
However, we got to trust that Elon isn't going to implement a bad idea. If it's really battery swapping it will be structured in a way that makes sense, with grid support and cost recovery. I have complete faith in that.
What would concern me however is that battery swapping is the worst way to get to a 5 minute charge. The best is an actual 5 minute charge, and second best would be something like a small secondary cell exchange with true ubiquitous availability.
So if Elon is announcing battery swapping - it means that they have no hope of the last 2 materializing any time soon. And that should be concerning to apartment dwellers everywhere, and the EV sector as a whole.
Not sure I'd go quite that far- but I agree I'm not a swap-fan (wife or battery).
The logistics and cost don't warrant the optionality equation in my mind. In addition, I think it weakens the perception of the SuperChargers adds doubt to the charging speed direction etc. Now I do think the augmentation add of air-battery charger or similar makes some sense for quick in-out stop
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edit - cross posted with deonb - funny we have nearly identical thoughts on this
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
The way they can do it without a massive infrastructure is if they do it at service centers, not swap stations, and it could be a call ahead reservation system. It doesn't have to be automated and it doesn't have to be something that can be used at any time on a whim. They show the demo, they introduce a plan that allows you to use the service occasionally. Then Musk can say we can recharge your car faster than gas, and we may expand the service in the future. I don't see a massive build out of a new infrastructure making much sense.
deonb
Active Member
That would not be consistent with the "anywhere in the country" part of his original tweet. To be "anywhere in the country" it would need to be at least as ubiquitous as the 2015 SuperCharger rollout.
That is completely useless. Why would I schedule a battery swap in a service center? I can recharge faster than that process.
A call ahead and reservation system is retarded compared to a 20 minute Supercharger.
And the service centers are not where someone would hypotheticaly need a battery swap. Someone with a 200+ mile battery pack does not need a battery swap in Seattle or LA or San Francisco. The potential case for a fast 5 minute swap would be between cities.
Even discussing this scenario is stupid. Someone would have to be financially illiterate to think that a battery swap makes any financial sense. The capital required to build hundreds of battery swap stations, and stock them with enough battery packs (for multiple different models and sizes) ready to go, will bankrupt Tesla Motors.
If they announce battery swap stations, short the stock.
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1. Battery swap will be under 1 minute.
2. I think it'll happen at the existing Supercharger stations
3. Tesla will use batteries as grid storage (as previously revealed) to reduce electricity costs during the day when people charge.
4. You'll swap in less than a minute with a battery that was being used as grid storage, and now your battery will be used as grid storage.
5. The economics of grid storage make sense because even if you didn't have battery swap it would still make economic sense to have grid storage at Supercharger stations. Battery swap is just icing on the cake.
6. Battery swap will not cost a lot to roll out because they're already rolling out grid storage for all Supercharger stations (in addition to solar). All you need to add is a clever swap robot. It doesn't need to be manned. It can be outdoors and could cost less than 50k for the swap robot. Everything else is already there (batteries/grid storage).
Elon Musk has noted that battery swap isn't a novel idea and is relatively straightforward and simple. He said that you need to make the economics work and that's the challenging part. So, if Elon chooses to do battery swap it will be because he's figured out how to make the economics work. He's not going to release something that's going to harm Tesla Motors' financial position. He's too smart for that. Give the guy some credit. Never short TSLA or Elon.
deonb
Active Member
4 and 6 is self-inconsistent. You can't swap with a battery that was used as grid storage as it may have a low SOC.
Thus the top battery has to remain fully charged. And if it takes only a minute (i.e. you can serve a new car every minute), so does the one after that... and the one after that... and the one after that...
Since you need about 20 minutes to charge between 65% and 80%, in order to be able to even use 15% of the battery for grid storage, you'd need to have more than 20 batteries on charged standby.
The only way to prevent that is to not allow a swap every minute. With a 5 minute swap you'd get down to needing 4 standby charged batteries. But that makes the whole thing less appealing - a line of 3 people in front of you and you're back to SuperCharger time.
Amen to that. If Elon chooses battery swapping it will be done in a way that's highly appealing. I just haven't yet seen such an appealing scenario from the ideas that have been floated around so far. (Well, there's a reason Elon gets the big bucks...)
Probably not. The battery pack is part of the structure of the car. I am sure it is possible to swap the battery pack, but I doubt it is a one minute process with the current Model S. If it was that easy, it would have been part of the bragging for several years now.
Their current rent at most locations is free or very cheap. A battery swap station would be much more invasive and likely much more expensive.
It is not just one battery pack they have to keep in stock. It is multiple sizes for every model. They would also likely need to have a technician at each station. I would not feel safe having an automated system get 50% through a swap and then freeze. Now I have a car brick between cities.
I own my battery pack. I don't want it used as grid storage with an unknown number if discharges and recharges at high intensity.
Not with my battery pack. Do it with another battery pack and you can abuse those.
If he is that smart, then this June 20th announcement is not going to be about battery swaps. Especially right when Better Place just went into bankruptcy. The headlines associated with that and linking Tesla to Better Place would be a public relations disaster. It would be the same as Tesla saying they really like Fisker's strategy and they are adopting it for a future car.
This entire concept is brain dead.
The only feasible way of swapping is what JRP described:
Anything more and it is time for:
Will GenIII have same size battery pack? Will Roadster 3.0 use same size battery pack? What about Gen4 Model S?
I wish future battery backs would change to accommodate future advances in technology.
Rolling out swap-stations en-masse would be a big and heavy millstone around their necks regarding what future battery packs to offer. Don't change it would be massively cheaper than change-it. Other manufacturers could change it, tesla loses.
Even Roadster does not have access to SuperChargers. It's internals are not up to snuff.
Anything more and it is time for:
Will GenIII have same size battery pack? Will Roadster 3.0 use same size battery pack? What about Gen4 Model S?
I wish future battery backs would change to accommodate future advances in technology.
Rolling out swap-stations en-masse would be a big and heavy millstone around their necks regarding what future battery packs to offer. Don't change it would be massively cheaper than change-it. Other manufacturers could change it, tesla loses.
Even Roadster does not have access to SuperChargers. It's internals are not up to snuff.
That is exactly why battery swap stations don't make sense. The battery packs are changing every few years. They are improving. So a battery swap station would have to keep in stock all of the battery packs from EVERY model year and every size (60 and 85 kwh). And the "robot" would have to be flexible enough to handle all of the variations from different models (S, X, Gen III, next Roadster 3.0, future Model S versions, etc). Luckily the announcement is June 20th and my delivery is after June 28th. I will have enough time to walk away with only losing my $2,500 deposit.
The only people who think this makes sense are financially illiterate. Yeah, it could technically be done. But it makes no sense financially. And don't even try to tell me that this system would be as easy to install as the Supercharger network.
The invasive nature of a battery swap station and all of the storage for dozens of variations of battery packs and having to keep them all charged up and ready.... this concept is just plain nuts. Do the math on those capital costs. You are kidding yourself if you think it makes sense to do that in hundreds of locations around the USA, Europe and Asia. That is why Better Place burned through $800 million just trying to make it work in a small country like Israel.
If it is battery swaps, I would have real concerns about buying a Model S that arrives in a few weeks. I think if Tesla Motors commits to a battery swap network, that would bankrupt the company and I would worry about owning my Model S long term.
In fact, I might cancel my order since this idea is so retarded. Luckily the announcement is June 20th and my delivery is after June 28th. So I will have time to cancel and just walk away with only losing my $2,500 deposit. Tesla Motors is toast if they are commiting to a battery swap network of stations. I would just reverse the charges on the credit card for my $2,500 deposit. This type of decision would so dramatically change the financial risk of the company that I would consider it a violation of our original contract. This risk would just be too insane for me to continue with the purchase.
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How about a 500 mile battery and being able to charge it at a higher speed so that charging it up 50 percent only takes 8 minutes and he says the avg stop to fill up a gas car tank 250 miles is 9 minutes according to X statistic.
he did mention the possibility of a future 500 mile battery on one of the calls a couple months back at the end of the Q&A, I think it might have been the service upgrade call or lease product call. Perhaps this 500 mile battery is sooner than we think and all existing Model S owners are eligible to upgrade for X price if they want.
he did mention the possibility of a future 500 mile battery on one of the calls a couple months back at the end of the Q&A, I think it might have been the service upgrade call or lease product call. Perhaps this 500 mile battery is sooner than we think and all existing Model S owners are eligible to upgrade for X price if they want.
I think swap will be an extra option above Supercharging. For example, Supercharger costs $2000 at car purchase but battery swap would cost an extra $2000 at purchase (ie., $4000 option but would include Supercharging). Buy the option only if you want it. Don't like the idea, don't buy the swap option. Thus, less people likely will buy the swap option than the regular Supercharging option.
I think you could do it with 5-10 battery packs per Supercharger station initially. In super busy times like Friday afternoon, you'd just have to wait for the battery to be ready or use a Supercharger. But I think that's the rare case. In most cases, if you've got 10 batteries at a station you can have 1-2 always ready at a 85% charge. Also, Tesla could roll out a reservation system. 20 minutes before you arrive at the station, your car reserves a battery swap and it's ready for you.
Elon has mentioned several times in interviews that he's architected the Model S's battery to be swapped out in under a minute.
It appears they're rolling out grid storage at each Supercharger station. Now that's a big expense. Adding a swap robot I think would actually be less costly than adding solar or grid storage.
Again, I think battery swap will be an extra option above Supercharging. No need to get it if you don't like it. But I think Tesla could give some assurances to customers like they will diagnose each battery each time it's returned to a swap station.
Elon's been talking about fast battery swap for a long time. If June 20th is battery swap (which I believe it is) the actually battery swap mechanics will be just a part of the announcement. The bigger part will be how the economics of it all works out. He's very aware of that and wouldn't release battery swap unless it made financial sense.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
I'd like the demo to be the range extender battery (air metal) that you can have added to your frunk (at the service center). You replace the metal cartridges periodically when they wear out (think Printer toner). This solution works anywhere and is super fast refuel. This extender battery simply provides a recharge to the main battery at a medium level charge rate (not SC 120 KW rate).
TM only needs to demo this unlimited range capability on June 20th and state that its an available option in the near future (i.e. later this year).
This demo would be HUGE and would completely destroy the notion of range anxiety with Model S and EVs in general.
It provides the "optionality" Elon mentioned.
Someone else had mentioned this a bit earlier and it's the best thing overall I feel like. I know a Tesla patent describes this functionality.
Anyone have comments on the size, practicality and additional range you would get? It doesn't really fit the "recharge as fast as filling a gas tank" proposal though, does it?
Yes, that would be good. I just wonder if this was the case the frunk would probably have had to be designed to some extent from the beginning to support this type of energy transfer into the floor battery. I would think that design characteristic would have gotten out somehow and I don't believe we've heard anything about it until this speculation began on his tweets about the June 20th announce,net and faster charging, etc. this is why I think this extra battery option in the frunk might just be wishful thinking on our part
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