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June 20th Speculation
- Thread starter ShortSlaver
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He also said that after June 20th there won't be anymore announcements for a while. Since they plan on "finalizing" the design of Model X in Q2, why would they wait many months before unveiling it?
Elon doesn't like keeping secrets, he can't help but give out information as soon as possible.
Elon doesn't like keeping secrets, he can't help but give out information as soon as possible.
I think they'd probably hire more shifts to run their current like 24 hours first. I think this is in the works and a big part towards pushing for 25% margins.
Announcing a new shift of workers and guidance to 24,000 cars this year would rocket the stock.
What would these have to do with existing Model S owners directly?
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
+1. I doubt he'll raise guidance before next earnings call though. Would be nice but I doubt it
Yeah I agree. I mean they could if they plan on getting that second shift up and running right away but it seems like they are still getting their first shift perfected and worrying about that first.
Q1 proved they can produce enough to deal with demand.
The aim for Q2+ is getting the whole process down to a single shift working 40-50 hours. They really need to lower unit costs. The extra cash means they're secure for now but they have to get unit costs down.
ZBB
Emperor
Model X beta release is a possibility. Perhaps the part that's directly relevant to S owners will be the availability of 3rd party apps? Demonstrate them on the X, but also avail on the S? Maybe have a couple of demonstrations from 3rd parties (similar to Apple), publicly release the SDK and give a timeline on when avail to owners?
deonb
Active Member
We should recap all of the latest hints about this announcement that we've seen (word for word), from all the various sources. I haven't seen it updated recently. I'll start.
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Moved to top-level post:
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...e-20th-announcement-hints?p=353490#post353490
<snipped>
Moved to top-level post:
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...e-20th-announcement-hints?p=353490#post353490
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Note (just because it's confusing) that in the context it's clear that in the Bloomberg interview the "third announcement" he's talking about is the one after the supercharging announcement, part 5 (At that stage the first two parts had already been announced, and he was going over the remaining three announcements). So "Under your nose" is definitely the thrust of this next announcement. Model X could be part of it, but it definitely doesn't seem like it could be the purpose of the announcement.
We should recap all of the latest hints about this announcement that we've seen (word for word), from all the various sources. I haven't seen it updated recently. I'll start.
Please reply on this thread if you have any additional sources - I'll add it here to have in one place:
Elon, Twitter - Apr 2:
Today's Tesla announcement is actually the 2nd in a 5 part trilogy (love Douglas Adams)
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/319119973366784002
Elon v. Betty Liu, Bloomberg - Apr 2:
And then there's a 3rd announcement that I won't quite talk about, but I think is pretty cool - except to say that if you're driving a Model S, it's right under your nose.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LS2BCL6SWYI - 8:49 min
Elon, Twitter - May 9:
elonmusk: There is a way for the Tesla Model S to be recharged throughout the country faster than you could fill a gas tank.
realbhuwan: @elonmusk yeah, we're waiting for superchargers
pjhornak: @realbhuwan @elonmusk hint that's not a supercharger
realbhuwan: @PJHORNAK doubt it is anything else.
elonmusk: @realbhuwan Don't forget the mystery announcement. Part 5 of the trilogy.
pratik_shah: @elonmusk only in US or across the globe?
elonmusk: @pratik_shah worldwide <---- this has since been deleted
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/332516435488280577
Tweet capture with "worldwide" from:
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...-upcoming-under-your-nose-announcement/page34
SEC 10-Q - May 10th
Other factors that may influence the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles, and specifically electric vehicles, include:
* our capability to rapidly swap out the Model S battery pack and the development of specialized public facilities to perform such swapping, which do not currently exist but which we plan to introduce in the near future;
http://ir.teslamotors.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1193125-13-212354&CIK=1318605 - Page 39
Javier Verdura, Core77 - May 28:
Charging technology is only going to improve with time. Charging times will decrease significantly and range will increase accordingly. In the very near future, the argument that internal combustion automobiles are more convenient than electric vehicles will be a moot point. You will be able to arrive at a charging station with an empty battery and drive off with a full charge faster than you can fill up a gas tank.
http://www.core77.com/blog/announce...with_javier_verdura_of_tesla_motors_24947.asp
(The tie in is the "faster than you can fill up a gas tank" - wording that Elon used on May 9th).
Elon, Jim Cramer interview, May 31:
@retrowallstt: Given the downtime (20+min) at recharging stations, is there any plan to create a "customer experience" during that time?
Elon: Well, we're aiming to keep improving the charge speed, and then we get some other ideas for minimizing people's time at charge stations. But... (???? What is the exact wording here? My speakers are too weak to decipher). But I think... we'll come up with some better entertaining things over time.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100779662 - 13:40 min
Weakly related information:
Tesla Patent Filing, Feb 16:
A method of optimizing the operation of the power source of an electric vehicle is provided, where the power source is comprised of a first battery pack (e.g., a non-metal-air battery pack) and a second battery pack (e.g., a metal-air battery pack). The power source is optimized to minimize use of the least efficient battery pack (e.g., the second battery pack) while ensuring that the electric vehicle has sufficient power to traverse the expected travel distance before the next battery charging cycle.
http://www.faqs.org/patents/app/20120041625
Tesla Patent Filing, Feb 16:
A power source comprised of a first battery pack (e.g., a non-metal-air battery pack) and a second battery pack (e.g., a metal-air battery pack) is provided, wherein the second battery pack is only used as required by the state-of-charge (SOC) of the first battery pack or as a result of the user selecting an extended range mode of operation. Minimizing use of the second battery pack prevents it from undergoing unnecessary, and potentially lifetime limiting, charge cycles. The second battery pack may be used to charge the first battery pack or used in combination with the first battery pack to supply operational power to the electric vehicle.
http://www.faqs.org/patents/app/20120041624
Tesla Patent Filing, Feb 16:
A system and method for charging a metal-air battery pack at the maximum possible rate while maintaining an ambient oxygen concentration below a preset concentration is provided, thereby minimizing the risks associated with generating oxygen during the charging cycle.
http://www.faqs.org/patents/app/20120041623
Wow, this is a greta collection of all we know to date. Thanks!
CapitalistOppressor
Active Member
Announcement aside, they've got the demand in place to sell 25,000 cars this year if they want to.
Europe appears to be under performing, but they are on track to get ~5,000 sales there this year. Hopefully, once the cars start shipping it will goose the reservation rate, because right now it is only ~5,000/year. I am unimpressed with their retail operations there, so the strategy seems to be spray and pray.
They also intend to ship ~1,000 cars to Asia at the end of the year, but I am currently assuming they will delay those shipments until 2014.
The real wild-card is the U.S. Tesla has real momentum here and the non-lease leasing plan could entice a lot of customers who normally wouldn't consider a car this expensive. There are plenty of middle class folks rolling around in $50k SUV's with massive gas bills who might not consider the Model S such a stretch. Outside of not having a tow hitch it really might be a more practical option.
They are on pace to sell 20k in the U.S. alone, and have the possibility of a real breakout year if sales momentum keeps up. A second shift is a clear possibility at this point.
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This. +1
Thank you aznt1217 
OK, my guesses for June 20th are:
1) battery swapping OR
2) Model S deliveries happening in Europe OR
3) Model X Beta reveal
BTW there are people speculating that there will be some sort of additional battery in the front trunk to extend range. I seriously do not think that is going to happen. No-one has discussed the adverse effects on acceleration, braking, and handling that you'd see by hanging such a large weight over the front wheels. It would be a disaster for the Model S which is already heavy, and only "nimble" by its already skillful design. Adding more weight, and in such a non-centralized location, would be horrible for its sporty handling. All the other manufacturers would laugh! (and breathe a sigh of relief)
OK, my guesses for June 20th are:
1) battery swapping OR
2) Model S deliveries happening in Europe OR
3) Model X Beta reveal
BTW there are people speculating that there will be some sort of additional battery in the front trunk to extend range. I seriously do not think that is going to happen. No-one has discussed the adverse effects on acceleration, braking, and handling that you'd see by hanging such a large weight over the front wheels. It would be a disaster for the Model S which is already heavy, and only "nimble" by its already skillful design. Adding more weight, and in such a non-centralized location, would be horrible for its sporty handling. All the other manufacturers would laugh! (and breathe a sigh of relief)
CapitalistOppressor
Active Member
Thank you aznt1217
OK, my guesses for June 20th are:
1) battery swapping OR
2) Model S deliveries happening in Europe OR
3) Model X Beta reveal
BTW there are people speculating that there will be some sort of additional battery in the front trunk to extend range. I seriously do not think that is going to happen. No-one has discussed the adverse effects on acceleration, braking, and handling that you'd see by hanging such a large weight over the front wheels. It would be a disaster for the Model S which is already heavy, and only "nimble" by its already skillful design. Adding more weight, and in such a non-centralized location, would be horrible for its sporty handling. All the other manufacturers would laugh! (and breathe a sigh of relief)
I have argued exactly that point elsewhere. By and large though I stay away from the Aluminum Air theories because I doubt any business strategy decided upon in March or April would be based on patents filed in February. A patent is an idea, not a solution.
I'll bite
I'm going with the retrofit option for parking sensors and security being built into the European models plus some other software/ app based upgrades
Of course I wouldn't be surprised if it is a bigger announcement, but Tesla really deserves more credit for the way they can continually upgrade the cars. This is a big advance by itself.
I'm going with the retrofit option for parking sensors and security being built into the European models plus some other software/ app based upgrades
Of course I wouldn't be surprised if it is a bigger announcement, but Tesla really deserves more credit for the way they can continually upgrade the cars. This is a big advance by itself.
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