June 20th Speculation

[fengshui]

The operational milestones in Elon's incentive package include both a Model X Engineering Prototype (Alpha) and a Model X Vehicle Prototype (Beta). I can't imagine them completing the first without announcing it, or getting so-quickly to the second that they could combine it in a single announcement. If it's a Model X reveal, it's probably the Alpha car only.

 

[Iz]

Could be Firmware 5.0 with sleep enabled? They expect the upgraded sleep mode to save 85% of the current vampire load. This would add an additional 8.5 miles/day since the drain is ~ 10/day.

 

[mitch672]

Could be Firmware 5.0 with sleep enabled? They expect the upgraded sleep mode to save 85% of the current vampire load. This would add an additional 8.5 miles/day since the drain is ~ 10/day.

+1

They have been taking a lot of heat in the press for the high vampire load, V5.0 is supposed to be a major release comming out this summer (Summer officially begins June 21st).

He may also show the X progress, and mention they may be comming out with Model S 2.0, that will have an option for all wheel drive. Before you poo-poo the idea, they need to do this anyway for the Model X, and they are based on the same platform. It is the next logical step progressing to the Model X drivetrain...

 

[deonb]

I have argued exactly that point elsewhere. By and large though I stay away from the Aluminum Air theories because I doubt any business strategy decided upon in March or April would be based on patents filed in February. A patent is an idea, not a solution.

The patent is the protection of an idea. That idea might be fully implemented (but not disclosed).

If Tesla is anywhere like us, they'd work on a idea for years and years and then, just before going public with it, they'd phone up the lawyers who has to work nights and weekends to come up with and file a patent disclosure in a nick of time to match some public release date.

I hold 13 patents. Each and every one of them was done under such a schedule. I think the longest filing time before a public Beta release containing an implementation I've had was 6 months.

And for those who say: "You can still file a year after the fact" - that rule only applies in the U.S. Once you publicly disclose something you immediately forfeit your European filing rights. Not something Tesla will do.

Now, it may just be a theoretical patent in order to build up a portfolio. But you can't tell those apart from an imminent release patent. Also, at $100k a pop for the end-to-end worldwide patent process, I'm betting Tesla was treading lightly around filing arbitrary and far-fetched patents - especially back in Feb.

 

[aaron0k]

Thank you aznt1217

OK, my guesses for June 20th are:

1) battery swapping OR
2) Model S deliveries happening in Europe OR
3) Model X Beta reveal

1) Battery swapping.

They've been talking/thinking about this for a while.

Below is a slide from a presentation by O'Connell in 1/2010: "Battery exchange faster than a fill up". Note the keyword is exchange; not recharge. We know Elon has recently brought the "faster than a filling a tank" statement back to life... without clarifying how...

 

[brianstorms]

One potentially nontrivial thing to consider in terms of the timing of June 20 announcement:

Apple's Worldwide Developer Conference (WWDC) is June 10-14. The week before. This will be the first time in many months that Tim Cook has gotten up on stage to do a Steve Jobs type keynote. A lot is riding on Cook's talk, in terms of Wall Street's perception of whether Apple still has tons of upside with compelling new products and services.

Let's say Apple does introduce/announce something big. That steals the entire week of June 10-14. Apple will own that week. Nobody in their right mind would try to gain news cycle presence that week.

So Tesla picks the following week...

My $0.02 of speculation...

 

[VaG]

brainstorms: that is a good idea... the best companies schedule their big marking around each other.

aaron0k: WOOT! I have dreamed about all-wheel-drive for the Model S and would love it to become an option - especially since the Model X shares the same floorpan/chassis and has it as an option. I imagine it was stripped out in order to help bring down the costs, since 2WD acceleration was already bringing some "wow." And oh yeah...thanks for the slide about battery swapping

 

[brianstorms]

Oh, and here's my thoughts on what the actual announcement(s) will be on June 20:

* Battery news with a demonstration of how it works (I tend to side on the / hope for the frunk suitcase-battery swap approach; perhaps they'll install "vending machine" type thingies at the SuperCharger sites, and you just hop out of your car, pull out your battery case for a fresh one from the dispenser, car talks to the dispenser so it knows who it is, you put the fresh case into the frunk, close the top, on your way)
* Possibly Model X beta show and tell
* Europe news
* Announcement and demo of V5 software, complete with an App Store for third party apps. (The App Store thing was already hinted at by a Tesla manager months ago in an interview with some website when talking about the 17" display and software bundled with the car.)

 

[Thumper]

We still have no 3G/4G data regimen in place. That would certainly be under our nose.

 

[gregincal]

The patent is the protection of an idea. That idea might be fully implemented (but not disclosed).

If Tesla is anywhere like us, they'd work on a idea for years and years and then, just before going public with it, they'd phone up the lawyers who has to work nights and weekends to come up with and file a patent disclosure in a nick of time to match some public release date.

I hold 13 patents. Each and every one of them was done under such a schedule. I think the longest filing time before a public Beta release containing an implementation I've had was 6 months.

And for those who say: "You can still file a year after the fact" - that rule only applies in the U.S. Once you publicly disclose something you immediately forfeit your European filing rights. Not something Tesla will do.

Now, it may just be a theoretical patent in order to build up a portfolio. But you can't tell those apart from an imminent release patent. Also, at $100k a pop for the end-to-end worldwide patent process, I'm betting Tesla was treading lightly around filing arbitrary and far-fetched patents - especially back in Feb.

I'm the inventor on about the same number of approved patents (10-15). They are about equally divided between the first type and the second type (which tend to take about 1/2 hour to draw on a piece of paper and several weeks to get the lawyers to describe correctly in the filing). I don't know, when I read the Al-air patent it struck me as the second type (a theoretical patent), but I could be wrong. As you say, it's hard to tell the difference from the outside.

 

[Beavis]

I was thinking that it's WiFi. That is the promised feature that would be most useful and is still missing. Then Elon says something about you gotta see it in addition to his previous comments about it being under your nose and will make existing customers happy.

So here is now my guess: the official release of the center console....installed for free.

 

[deonb]

I got it!!!

* faster than you could fill a gas tank
* throughout the country
* across the globe
* charging technology is only going to improve
* the argument that internal combustion automobiles are more convenient than electric vehicles will be a moot point

and most importantly:
* under your nose

Can it be? Yes, yes...

Tesla has invented a methane sequestration charger.

 

[gregincal]

I got it!!!

* faster than you could fill a gas tank
* throughout the country
* across the globe
* charging technology is only going to improve
* the argument that internal combustion automobiles are more convenient than electric vehicles will be a moot point

and most importantly:
* under your nose

Can it be? Yes, yes...

Tesla has invented a methane sequestration charger.

And is partnering with Taco Bell at the superchargers to give you that "extra" range with the super bean special?

 

[ShortSlaver]

The patent is the protection of an idea. That idea might be fully implemented (but not disclosed).

Patents do not protect ideas. They protect inventions. Subtle, but very important difference. To patent something you need at a minimum schematics on how something works and proof it is truly an invention - not just an idea.

 

[NigelM]

I have a feeling that people are setting themselves up for a disappointment vis-a-vis battery swapping....

Model S batteries cannot be swapped out that quickly. It would take a huge investment in battery packs (the most expensive part of the car) and an even bigger one in real estate and staffing. With the recent Better Place failure still fresh in the mind the Tesla stock price would get hammered if they launched into a(nother) massive capital investment phase.

- - - Updated - - -

Sorry if I'm being negative tonight but I don't believe that there'll be a special battery for the frunk either. Tesla has been working n a cold drawer to go in that back-of-the-frunk recess area (see various other threads) and that would make zero sense if they are going to put a suitcase battery in there.

 

[ShortSlaver]

I have a feeling that people are setting themselves up for a disappointment vis-a-vis battery swapping....

Model S batteries cannot be swapped out that quickly. It would take a huge investment in battery packs (the most expensive part of the car) and an even bigger one in real estate and staffing. With the recent Better Place failure still fresh in the mind the Tesla stock price would get hammered if they launched into a(nother) massive capital investment phase.

I agree. Battery swapping is simply not happening. I've posted before it just doesn't make sense and isn't the forward path. There's so many issues and edge cases battery swapping introduces and better batteries, cheaper batteries and better charging are the path.

The battery swap concept is just not happening in consumer grade cars. Maybe if Tesla starts building long haul trucks, but not in consumer cars.

 

[Darko]

I have argued exactly that point elsewhere. By and large though I stay away from the Aluminum Air theories because I doubt any business strategy decided upon in March or April would be based on patents filed in February. A patent is an idea, not a solution.

I did a quick search and didn't come up with a filing date of February this year for Tesla - maybe I'm missing something. Last I found regarding metal-air battery swap was Dec. 2010, 2.5 years ago:

United States Patent	8,450,974
Stewart , et al.	May 28, 2013

[SIZE=+1]
Electric vehicle extended range hybrid battery pack system [/SIZE]

Abstract A power source comprised of a first battery pack (e.g., a non-metal-air battery pack) and a second battery pack (e.g., a metal-air battery pack) is provided, wherein the second battery pack is only used as required by the state-of-charge (SOC) of the first battery pack or as a result of the user selecting an extended range mode of operation. Minimizing use of the second battery pack prevents it from undergoing unnecessary, and potentially lifetime limiting, charge cycles. The second battery pack may be used to charge the first battery pack or used in combination with the first battery pack to supply operational power to the electric vehicle.

Inventors:	Stewart; Sarah G. (San Francisco, CA), Kohn; Scott Ira (Redwood City, CA), Kelty; Kurt Russell (Palo Alto, CA), Straubel; Jeffrey Brian (Menlo Park, CA)
Assignee:	Tesla Motors, Inc. (Palo Alto, CA)
Appl. No.:	12/962,851
Filed:	December 8, 2010

I'm not familiar with patent processes and strategies as to the announcement timeframe of this June 20, but I'm voting for a metal-air swappable range extender in the frunk as per the hints and patent filings, intended to be complimentary to the supercharger network to eliminate range anxiety, and that it is immediately or close to operational/available. If the announcement is about anything too far in the future it will be a huge disappointment - they've primed the pump of expectation and have to deliver - otherwise the market will consider it vaporware.

 

[FredTMC]

I did a quick search and didn't come up with a filing date of February this year for Tesla - maybe I'm missing something. Last I found regarding metal-air battery swap was Dec. 2010, 2.5 years ago:

United States Patent	8,450,974
Stewart , et al.	May 28, 2013

[SIZE=+1]Electric vehicle extended range hybrid battery pack system [/SIZE]

AbstractA power source comprised of a first battery pack (e.g., a non-metal-air battery pack) and a second battery pack (e.g., a metal-air battery pack) is provided, wherein the second battery pack is only used as required by the state-of-charge (SOC) of the first battery pack or as a result of the user selecting an extended range mode of operation. Minimizing use of the second battery pack prevents it from undergoing unnecessary, and potentially lifetime limiting, charge cycles. The second battery pack may be used to charge the first battery pack or used in combination with the first battery pack to supply operational power to the electric vehicle.

Inventors:	Stewart; Sarah G. (San Francisco, CA), Kohn; Scott Ira (Redwood City, CA), Kelty; Kurt Russell (Palo Alto, CA), Straubel; Jeffrey Brian (Menlo Park, CA)
Applicant:	Name	City	State	Country	Type
Stewart; Sarah G. Kohn; Scott Ira Kelty; Kurt Russell Straubel; Jeffrey Brian	San Francisco Redwood City Palo Alto Menlo Park	CA CA CA CA	US US US US
Assignee:	Tesla Motors, Inc. (Palo Alto, CA)
Appl. No.:	12/962,851
Filed:	December 8, 2010

I'm not familiar with patent processes and strategies as to the announcement timeframe of this June 20, but I'm voting for a metal-air swappable range extender in the frunk as per the hints and patent filings, intended to be complimentary to the supercharger network to eliminate range anxiety, and that it is immediately or close to operational/available. If the announcement is about anything too far in the future it will be a huge disappointment - they've primed the pump of expectation and have to deliver - otherwise the market will consider it vaporware.

I agree. I think this is it! Only thing that fits Works anywhere.

 

[deonb]

I did a quick search and didn't come up with a filing date of February this year for Tesla - maybe I'm missing something. Last I found regarding metal-air battery swap was Dec. 2010, 2.5 years ago

The publication date for it is Feb 16, 2012.

The error was mine, I just put in Feb 16, instead of Feb 16, 2012 in my references on the clues page. I updated it now on:

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/17416-June-20th-Speculation/page4

 

[sleepyhead]

I don't think it is battery swapping, because during one of Elon's recent interviews (I think it was during the supercharger announcement yesterday) a reporter asked about battery swapping and Elon's response sounded like he wasn't too optimistic about it. He said something along the lines that it is not the best solution, but "something we can talk about later" (paraphrased). I can't remember exactly what he said, but he didn't sound too optimistic about it. Unless he was sandbagging on the verge of lying, I don't think it will be battery swapping.