June 20th Speculation

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Did Tesla buy Better Place battery swapping patents/machines? Will Tesla High Priced Electric Cars be Selling in Israel? | Green Prophet

Two groups eyeing purchase of Better Place: American Jews and Canadian investors - Business - Israel News | Haaretz Daily Newspaper

"The two bidding groups join Israel Electric Corporation and the French power company EDF, both of which have expressed interest mainly in Better Place’s nationwide network of vehicle-recharging stations. They want to buy not only the recharging devices themselves, but the computer network that operates them and keeps drivers posted about their energy needs.

But they are not interested in the battery-changing stations, which are another critical part of the Better Place network."

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Oh well. Musk has said he's not a fan of swapping, but it's nice to have a back-up plan. If it's all automated, asnit had better be,maybe JPP's observation about factory battery installation indicates the humans are there for QA or they're now ready with an automated process.

Now I'll have to wait for announcements on improvements to the vampire issues and other software goodies in futue software updates.

I hope people there can ask for the numbers on it.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Mobile battery swapping station.
Less than elegant idea Elon could not clear from his mind since the days of shopping for Russian ICBMs :wink:

 

[Rla]

It's confirmed battery swapping, now we can divide up the speculation on why.

The how is pretty much explained in this video, around the 1:00:00 mark. It is even funny, knowing what we know now, and interesting as indeed the whole battery swapping demo now revolves around the economics of it all.
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...is-Coming-Discuss-how-it-will-be-accomplished

ps: for those repeating BetterPlace: their model has failed as they had no consumers for their stations. Tesla has the Model S, and its drivers ready to start using any station they will put up.

 

[NigelM]

Tesla has the Model S, and its drivers ready to start using any station they will put up.

I disagree. The concept only works well if the batteries/cars are leased and I challenge any TMC-er who owns their car to say they would be with following realistic scenario:

I drop off my 2-year old battery with 40,000 miles and umpteen ranges charges off, and pick up a new battery as a swap. You come in the next day with your 6-month old, nurtured battery that has 3,000 miles and never a range charge and swap it out for my old one.

 

[Yggdrasill]

I disagree. The concept only works well if the batteries/cars are leased and I challenge any TMC-er who owns their car to say they would be with following realistic scenario:

I drop off my 2-year old battery with 40,000 miles and umpteen ranges charges off, and pick up a new battery as a swap. You come in the next day with your 6-month old, nurtured battery that has 3,000 miles and never a range charge and swap it out for my old one.

I would expect Tesla to go for the model where you still own the battery that you dropped off, and then you can either pick it up on the return trip, or have it shipped to any service center or battery swap station you would prefer.

This adds some complexity to the logistics, but on the other side, they will at least get some customers. (To lessen the complexity of the logistics, one might get the option of letting other people rent ones battery. In return one would get free battery swapping until the battery is returned.)

 

[NigelM]

I would expect Tesla to go for the model where you still own the battery that you dropped off, and then you can either pick it up on the return trip, or have it shipped to any service center or battery swap station you would prefer.

The least cost effective element in most businesses is storage space. Tesla would need lots of mini warehouses to store customers batteries and keep them all charged. Swapping the battery on a Model S is easy compared to the logistics/cost involved below the line.

 

[Tempus]

as they say - the devil is in the details. I'm having a hard time seeing a business case where swapping + supercharging is significantly better for tesla than just supercharging. Is it REALLY going to bring in that many additional customers?

Personally, I think the supercharger network by itself was a fantastic response to range anxiety (and i have a 60!). I don't see any way that swapping doesn't add significant cost/complexity to the equation, and i'm just not sure what the additional payoff is. It's not like Tesla is struggling to sell cars (see all the other threads about loaners and demo cars flying off the shelves).

 

[nygiants242]

as they say - the devil is in the details. I'm having a hard time seeing a business case where swapping + supercharging is significantly better for tesla than just supercharging. Is it REALLY going to bring in that many additional customers?

Personally, I think the supercharger network by itself was a fantastic response to range anxiety (and i have a 60!). I don't see any way that swapping doesn't add significant cost/complexity to the equation, and i'm just not sure what the additional payoff is. It's not like Tesla is struggling to sell cars (see all the other threads about loaners and demo cars flying off the shelves).

Completely agree on both fronts. Well-summarized.

 

[FredTMC]

Completely agree on both fronts. Well-summarized.

I would absolutely do a "rental swap" for long trips.

AND

I don't think the the logistics is hard. These battery packs go into deep sleep (no drain) when just sitting on a storage shelf.
You can store a lot of them in a small space. And only a small fractional percent of owners are renting batteries at any one given time.

 

[theganjaguru]

I disagree. The concept only works well if the batteries/cars are leased and I challenge any TMC-er who owns their car to say they would be with following realistic scenario:

I drop off my 2-year old battery with 40,000 miles and umpteen ranges charges off, and pick up a new battery as a swap. You come in the next day with your 6-month old, nurtured battery that has 3,000 miles and never a range charge and swap it out for my old one.

Your concern is exactly why I believe TSLA started marketing their faultless battery warranty. Another way for TSLA to mitigate your concern would be to set standards for a battery to be swappable, so if it isn't able to charge to at least X% of original capacity then it becomes a backup battery for the Super Charger network or its tagged for reconditioning/rebuild. This would also allow for TSLA to automate their battery warranty program. - and I think this is just brilliant.

I think the problem is the fact that as Americans we can sometimes put too much emphases on the word ownership. - It seems like you will have more of a quasi "owned" lease and may receive the benefits of living in both worlds.

If you'd prefer to live in the traditional realm of "ownership" then you might just be confined to the supercharger and not use the swap station. As battery tech matures you might not need to swap batteries as much or at all, but by then TSLA will have deployed a solar battery backup grid that could theoretically make TSLA not just an automaker, but an energy provider.

Aside from from not constantly charging in range mode and not leaving your Model S fully discharged and unplugged, it doesn't appear to me that the end user nurtures the battery anyways. It looks to me that taking care of the battery is TSLAs and your Model Ss department. - and it sounds like it could be quite convenient!

 

[mitch672]

Although Elon has announced a battery pack swapping demo, he's said nothing about it's intended use.
It could be initially just for large Model S fleet users, such as limo or taxi company's, those vehicles get many hours/day of usage, and a swapping scheme is needed for that market.
We still know nothing about its purpose, just going to have to wait another few days.

 

[Norse]

Although Elon has announced a battery pack swapping demo, he's said nothing about it's intended use.
It could be initially just for large Model S fleet users, such as limo or taxi company's, those vehicles get many hours/day of usage, and a swapping scheme is needed for that market.
We still know nothing about its purpose, just going to have to wait another few days.

I second that. Tesla knows they have sold massive in Norway, and the taxi drivers here will be all over this. GREAT NEWS IMO. Not for the private owner, but for taxies and investors.

 

[ShortSlaver]

I second that. Tesla knows they have sold massive in Norway, and the taxi drivers here will be all over this. GREAT NEWS IMO. Not for the private owner, but for taxies and investors.

If I could get picked up in a Model S, that would be awesome. Instead, I have to wait for my smelly NYC taxi.

 

[emupilot]

The whole reason for battery swapping is its speed, but how long will it take you to drive to the place where they do the swap? If the swapping stations were at a density to justify their existence, the up-front cost and logistics would be prohibitive. The service obviously wouldn't be free, and there would be the issue of differing quality between the swapped batteries. I can't see how this would be better than supercharging.

 

[mitch672]

The whole reason for battery swapping is its speed, but how long will it take you to drive to the place where they do the swap? If the swapping stations were at a density to justify their existence, the up-front cost and logistics would be prohibitive. The service obviously wouldn't be free, and there would be the issue of differing quality between the swapped batteries. I can't see how this would be better than supercharging.

Makes perfect sense if all of the cars are located in a central hub, like a limo or taxi company.
The batteries are all owned by the same company, they don't car which Model S in particular they are in.
No one has said this is intended for the public, yet. Don't make assumptions.

 

[deonb]

Makes perfect sense if all of the cars are located in a central hub, like a limo or taxi company.
The batteries are all owned by the same company, they don't car which Model S in particular they are in.
No one has said this is intended for the public, yet. Don't make assumptions.

Well, 2 things:

1) Elon: There is a way for the Tesla Model S to be recharged throughout the country faster than you could fill a gas tank.

A private hub model (taxi/limo) is not 'throughout the country'. It's not even in the same usage model.

-and-

2) Elon talked about this in the context of getting the extra Consumer Reports mark. Consumer Reports don't review products that are targeted towards businesses.

 

[mitch672]

deonb, initially it could just be for fleets, it needs to be "tested" and proven. Also, Elon hasn't put a time frame or promised when this would be availble. I'm guessing this is a technology / capability demo for now, and likely a very limited initial deployment. Thursday night is only a few days from now, lets see what the man has to say.

 

[ppl]

I am confused about timing of tweet. Great secret kept then ? Poor file naming. Web site corrected days ago. Why tweet last night? No great clamor for pre anouncement. There is something more to this

 

[vfx]

.... Tesla is planning a 7 year refresh cycle, ....

Reminds me of Disney's 7 year re-release cycle.

Before DVDs came along for decades Disney would re-release their animation properties (Snow White, The Aristocats, etc.) every 7 years to the next generation of kids. Then Micheal came along and sold them direct to customers for a quick profit. (for him since he had sharing) They have since figured out a million other way to re-release films (Now in Quad, 3-D, 4K, etc) but they still sort of follow the 7 year "next generation cycle"

I suppose the same can be said for drivers being "all new" every seven years. We have a thread about how this group does not even care about driving.