June EV Sales

[mattjs33]

U.S. EV (and other models of EV interest) sales for June, courtesy of Automotive News. Now including hybrids! (Sorry, dedicated nameplates only):

Chevrolet Volt - 1760
Nissan Leaf - 535
Mitsubishi i - 33
Honda FCX Clarity - 0
Mercedes-Benz F-Cell - 0
Honda Insight - 494
Honda CR-Z - 409
Lexus CT200h - 1387
Toyota Prius - 19,150

Year-to-date:

Chevrolet Volt - 8817
Nissan Leaf - 3148
Mitsubishi i - 333
Honda FCX Clarity - 2
Mercedes-Benz F-Cell - 7
Honda Insight - 4041
Honda CR-Z - 2404
Lexus CT200h - 9446
Toyota Prius - 126,654


Tesla, Fisker, Wheego and Coda do not report sales figures.

 

[AnOutsider]

Looking at these numbers, it's easy to see how analysts can be skeptical of Tesla's plan to sell 20k/year

 

[Kipernicus]

Looking at these numbers, it's easy to see how analysts can be skeptical of Tesla's plan to sell 20k/year

The Volt might make 20k for the year. I do hope the Model S gets that sort of demand.
What's with the Leaf's #s? Are they still constrained by supply issues until the TN plant comes online?

 

[Discoducky]

Looking at these numbers, it's easy to see how analysts can be skeptical of Tesla's plan to sell 20k/year

It might be better to look at the sales numbers for the cars that TM is competing against like BMW 5-series, E class and A6 to see the potential demand.

 

[AnOutsider]

It might be better to look at the sales numbers for the cars that TM is competing against like BMW 5-series, E class and A6 to see the potential demand.

Yeah, maybe... I guess we'll have to see public perception first.

 

[mattjs33]

It might be better to look at the sales numbers for the cars that TM is competing against like BMW 5-series, E class and A6 to see the potential demand.

Interesting idea.

Here you go:

June:

Audi A6/S6 - 1745
BMW 5-Series - 5374
Mercedes-Benz E-Class - 5589

Year-to-date:

Audi A6/S6 - 8584
BMW 5-Series - 27,751
Mercedes-Benz E-Class - 30,366

 

[AnOutsider]

So tesla needs to do a third of what the competition is doing. No small feat.

 

[Robert.Boston]

So tesla needs to do a third of what the competition is doing. No small feat.

Umm, depends on how you count that. You could also say that Tesla need to win 15% of the premium large sedan category, and that's defining the category narrowly (excluding the Audi A7, BMW 6-series, and anything from Jaguar, etc.). And, this is only the U.S.; Tesla's sales projections are global.

It would be very interesting to know what fraction of Model S buyers would otherwise have bought a premium large sedan. I suspect the number is less than 50%; IOW, Tesla is expanding the category.

 

[TEG]

...What's with the Leaf's #s? Are they still constrained by supply issues until the TN plant comes online?...

I think they might be starting a ramp down getting ready for the 2013 model update changeover.

Volt sales are up in part because they have California carpool access privileges now (with the new green plug-in-hybrid stickers.)

 

[jerry33]

And there are people, such as myself, that would never ever by a 5 series type car normally that are purchasing a Model S.

 

[Norbert]

Probably all the numbers above are US-only. BMW 5-series in 2010 was worldwide more than 210,000. (And BWM 7-series more than 65,000).

EDIT: changed 2011 to 2010 (don't know 2011 numbers).

 

[Norbert]

Mercedes Benz E-class in 2010 was 323,200, worldwide.

 

[mattjs33]

Probably all the numbers above are US-only. BMW 5-series in 2010 was worldwide more than 210,000. (And BWM 7-series more than 65,000).

EDIT: changed 2011 to 2010 (don't know 2011 numbers).

Yes, these are U.S. numbers only.

I think they might be starting a ramp down getting ready for the 2013 model update changeover.

Volt sales are up in part because they have California carpool access privileges now (with the new green plug-in-hybrid stickers.)

Not really sure what's up with the Leaf. For what it's worth I've seen Volts every day for the last week, still only seen three Leafs in the wild. We don't have carpool lanes in Chicago (we're lucky when we get four lanes in one direction total), so that's not a factor here.

 

[vfx]

I
Audi A6/S6 - 1745
BMW 5-Series - 5374
Mercedes-Benz E-Class - 5589...

This is too limiting. You missed a lot of cars. Cadillac, Buick, Lexus, Infiniti? Why not the A7? BMW 7 series? Bigger cars? Tesla will be also vampiring off surrounding scale cars , especailly buyers who want more car for the same money. If they normally buy a non premium class they can now buy a premium Tesla because of the money savings in gasoline allows them to upscale. How about a $40K Ford Tarus?

 

[Steph]

The general wisdom is model S competes with 5 series or Mercedes of this world.

IMHO this assumption is wrong.

It competes with anything on four wheels. And the more your drive, the more affordable it is. It's a brand new paradigm:

The car is as good or better then a BMW 5 series but can cost nothing. (depending on how much you drive it)

 

[smorgasbord]

The car is as good or better then a BMW 5 series but can cost nothing. (depending on how much you drive it)

The Madison Ave phrase: "the more you spend, the more you save," is not any truer today with Model S than it was back in the day.

That the TCO of Model S is is $57,000 less than the TCO of some gas guzzler doesn't make the Model S free.

The Model S is not free and costs more than nothing.

 

[AnOutsider]

The Madison Ave phrase: "the more you spend, the more you save," is not any truer today with Model S than it was back in the day.

That the TCO of Model S is is $57,000 less than the TCO of some gas guzzler doesn't make the Model S free.

The Model S is not free and costs more than nothing.

+1, we can't use BS to "win the war" so to speak.

 

[ckessel]

The car is as good or better then a BMW 5 series but can cost nothing. (depending on how much you drive it)

Edit: heh, smorgasbord just beat me to it.

Ok, you've said this repeatedly and while I understand the genesis of the point, it's really bugging me.

The Model S is not free, period. It's lifetime cost of ownership may be such that it's substantially less than an equivalently priced ICE car, but that's far different from free. By continuing to say "free" you're discrediting yourself as a hyperbolic source, which is a shame because I like your enthusiasm.

 

[Discoducky]

This is too limiting. You missed a lot of cars. Cadillac, Buick, Lexus, Infiniti? Why not the A7? BMW 7 series? Bigger cars? Tesla will be also vampiring off surrounding scale cars , especailly buyers who want more car for the same money. If they normally buy a non premium class they can now buy a premium Tesla because of the money savings in gasoline allows them to upscale. How about a $40K Ford Tarus?

It's clear to me that TM has a target a mile wide. I just hope they post their sales figures and don't wait for earnings announcements to cue people in. If they did show their sales figures, it would be hugely entertaining to see how quickly they overtake the EV's. If they don't, it will be a little harder, but totally doable, to figure out what cars the Model S is cannibalizing.

 

[mattjs33]

It's clear to me that TM has a target a mile wide. I just hope they post their sales figures and don't wait for earnings announcements to cue people in. If they did show their sales figures, it would be hugely entertaining to see how quickly they overtake the EV's. If they don't, it will be a little harder, but totally doable, to figure out what cars the Model S is cannibalizing.

+1 on this, a point I was trying to make in the thread where I posted the May sales.

I only posted the figures for Audi, BMW and Benz for the simple reason that that was what was requested. I'm not going to (and I don't think anyone wants me to) reproduce the whole chart here. You could argue that a Bentley buyer might consider a Model S. That doesn't make a Continental GT as cross-shopped with the Model S as a 5-Series.

As far as the maintenance of a Model S over a comparable car; I've said this before here, and some don't want to see it, but there won't be that much difference, over the term that these types of buyers keep cars like this. Modern engines are fantastically well built, and last for several hundred thousand miles. So a Model S will skip some oil changes, and doesn't have emissions control systems. It DOES however have wheel bearing assemblies, ball joints, struts, brakes, and A/C compressor, power steering components, a cabin filter, light assemblies, a transmission, window regulator assemblies, motor mounts, a climate control system and God only knows how many sensors, switches and control modules. Oh and there's that 17" monitor right in the middle, that controls EVERYTHING, running unique software (can anybody say Fisker?). All of these components will be prone to failure or require service at some point, just as they do on every other car made.

By all accounts so far, the Model S is a fantastic car, and a remarkable achievement for Tesla. But to say that cost of ownership will be zero (or even close to zero) is naive.