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Just announced. 500k cars by 2018 instead of 2020

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by Gilzo, May 4, 2016.

  1. Gilzo

    Gilzo Member

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  2. ttupper92618

    ttupper92618 Member

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    Just saw this - very, very glad to hear it, though it probably means another share offering.

    Nice pop in TSLA after hours.
     
  3. plankeye

    plankeye That Vegan EV Guy

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    I predicted it (maybe not in writing ;)). I predicted they would raise a bunch of money and get this wagon train a-movin'! Now that they know they have tons of demand, there's no reason not to, and a bunch of reasons TO do it.
     
  4. geoffreak

    geoffreak Model 3 Reservation Holder

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    YESSSSSSS!!!! This is awesome news! I think this could also mean upwards of 200k Model 3s could be getting the full tax credit! At the very least, this means every single order placed so far in the US will get a partial tax credit.
     
  5. inspron

    inspron Member

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    Mind blown.
     
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  6. plankeye

    plankeye That Vegan EV Guy

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    Not surprised...after all, this IS Elon we're talking about here!!! :)

    Can't wait for the webcast!!!
     
  7. ZachShahan

    ZachShahan Member

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    This is insane, no? So awesome. My full (for now) thoughts on it are here (tie in several stories I was taking forever to get to :D). But the big one for me is this:

    But my big take-home is the same as I repeated many times on Model 3 unveiling night: The conventional automakers (BMW, Mercedes, GM, etc) must be panicking and/or crying right now.​

    Seriously. Tesla is so far ahead of them, and so ready to eat into big corners of their sales, I'm not sure how they are going to be able to respond.
     
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  8. inspron

    inspron Member

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    Implied 250,000 cars in 2017? How is that even possible given Model 3 isn't set to launch until end of Q4?

    200,000 S + X in 2017 seems more than optimistic.
     
    • Like x 1
  9. ModelNforNerd

    ModelNforNerd Active Member

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    I love this.

    I get the bump in stock price, which is part of my savings plan for my PXXD-L Model 3.

    Maybe this announcement will help pay for an option or 2. :D
     
  10. ModelNforNerd

    ModelNforNerd Active Member

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    "Late 2017"


    that could be any time after July 1st (beginning of Q3)
     
  11. ZachShahan

    ZachShahan Member

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    lol. right? :D
     
  12. ZachShahan

    ZachShahan Member

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    Yes, unfortunately, it could also mean sometime after 2017... but it's not that far away and the Model 3 should be much simpler, so here's to hoping Tesla time has adjusted for daylight savings time. ;)
     
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  13. jsrawa

    jsrawa Member

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    This is great news! We all get our cars quicker, more people will get the full federal credit, more people will add options and Teslas bottom line is boosted!
     
  14. inspron

    inspron Member

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  15. flamingoezz

    flamingoezz Member

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    WOW...that is going to bump a TON of reservers up a tier in their credit.

    If Elon also works some magic with distribution and somehow doesn't hit 200K cars in the US until Q3 2018, we could all get full credit. Not counting on it, but I'm encouraged anyway. Hope he can stick to or close to these numbers
     
  16. ModelNforNerd

    ModelNforNerd Active Member

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    maybe that's where the nebulous "late 2017" keeps coming from. he's already said they will game the system. maybe they'll be ready to go...and will wait to maximize our tax credit.
     
  17. LectrikPower

    LectrikPower Member

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    I have a dream that the the other car companies would use Tesla's battery and drive train to build their own cars. This would truly bring about a rapid transition to electric transportation.

    Any model car now could easily be modified to the Tesla drive train and batt. I know this is likely just a dream. Too many egos involved.
     
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  18. Zaxxon

    Zaxxon Member

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    Man, this updated target is at once exciting and terrifying. Tesla is not even close to having the infrastructure ready to support 500k vehicles/year. Forget the production challenges--we need either a gigantic increase to the service center expansion plans or for Tesla to open up service to an established third-party network (which I view as highly unlikely to happen). I feared they wouldn't have time to get ready by 2020, and now the target is 2018?

    Color me dumbfounded.

    I would love to see 500k happy new Tesla customers in 2018, but I fear that that's just not at all realistic. Tesla has been somewhat struggling to support ~50% annual growth (based on service center backup stories, DS communication black holes, etc), and now we're going to push that to 135% growth in 2017 and 2018? (Assume high end of 2016 guidance is hit: 90,000 in 2016, 90k*2.35 = 211k in 2017, 211k * 2.35 = 497k in 2018. That's just an enormous, pie-in-the-sky goal.

    I wish them luck.

    [​IMG]
     
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  19. ZachShahan

    ZachShahan Member

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    Probably makes sense to paste the specific excerpt from Tesla's letter about this here:

    Advancing Build Plan

    We are on track to achieve volume Model 3 production and deliveries in late 2017. Of course, in order to meet that timeframe, we will be holding both ourselves and our suppliers accountable to be ready for volume production in advance of that timing.

    Additionally, given the demand for Model 3, we have decided to advance our 500,000 total unit build plan (combined for Model S, Model X, and Model 3) to 2018, two years earlier than previously planned. Increasing production five fold over the next two years will be challenging and will likely require some additional capital, but this is our goal and we will be working hard to achieve it.

    We remain on plan to make the first cells at the Gigafactory in Q4 2016, and we are adjusting our plans there to accommodate our revised build plan.

    Our objective with Model 3 is to create the world’s best car with a base price of $35,000, before any incentives, with a range of at least 215 miles on a single charge, and with strong gross margins. We plan to incorporate our best technology into Model 3, yet keep it relatively simple to build at high volume and with high quality.​
     
  20. ZachShahan

    ZachShahan Member

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    Yeah, that seems like a best-case scenario for EVs/the planet. Wish it would happen. Hard to see big automakers sucking it up and doing that, but who knows?

    I'm still heavily pushing for them to at least partner on the Supercharger network and get relevant, but as you said, it seems too many big egos are involved.
     

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