Just announced. 500k cars by 2018 instead of 2020

[TaoJones]

Isn't that an old article (note 02/10/2016 date)?

Gah! And so it is - linked right from one of my stock-related feeds, no less. Just checked - it's still wrong in the feed. Will remove that from my original post if it will still let me edit it [and... it won't - bleh]. Thanks for mentioning...

 

[sports4eva115]

It's phenomenal... almost too good to be true o.o
Is it possible that Tesla had already secretly started making some M3's (non-protos)? or is almost ready to go into production already?

 

[TwoM3's]

Too high, they max out at 500,000 a year in Fremont in 2018, meaning 125,000 a quarter max. No way they'll do 200,000 in a quarter at Fremont.

I won't comment on accuracy of the phaseout numbers, They may get out Model 3s in Q4, 2017 to offset your overly large Q4 2018 so the rest may be a wash. Depends on when the 200,000 trigger occurs.

2018 Q1 - 50k delivered (West/Central existing Owners + West Preorders + Employees) Full $7,500 credit
Q2 - 75k delivered(East existing Owners + Central Preorders + West Post Orders) Full $7,500 credit
Q3 - 125k delivered(East Preorders + Central Post Orders + International) $3,750 credit
Q4 - 200k delivered (East Post Orders + New Orders) $3.750 credit
450k total delivered

All this fails to take the US vs the rest of the world into account.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

It's phenomenal... almost too good to be true o.o
Is it possible that Tesla had already secretly started making some M3's (non-protos)? or is almost ready to go into production already?

another good sign could be the new AP camera being shipped on the refreshed Model S. probably a precursor/live beta of the Model 3's version of AP.

 

[SageBrush]

Since rumor has it that representatives from Tesla skim this board I'll say this:

If Tesla seeks capitalization funds through means that allow me to apply retirement savings I will. But I don't have after tax cash laying around.

 

[BluestarE3]

It's phenomenal... almost too good to be true o.o
Is it possible that Tesla had already secretly started making some M3's (non-protos)? or is almost ready to go into production already?

Unlikely since the target date for parts from suppliers and internally is pegged for July 1, 2017: Tesla sets July 1st 2017 as deadline for Model 3 parts with suppliers and internally

However, that same article also quotes Elon as saying that he wants tooling designs finalized by next month and the tools completed in 9 months. So, it is moving along at a really good clip.

 

[Vitold]

Unlikely since the target date for parts from suppliers and internally is pegged for July 1, 2017: Tesla sets July 1st 2017 as deadline for Model 3 parts with suppliers and internally

However, that same article also quotes Elon as saying that he wants tooling designs finalized by next month and the tools completed in 9 months. So, it is moving along at a really good clip.

He said that he'll have Model 3 finalized in 6 - 8 weeks.

 

[Az_Rael]

He said that he'll have Model 3 finalized in 6 - 8 weeks.

I wonder if we will see part 2 of the reveal earlier due to this? Maybe early next year instead of later?

 

[brianman]

It cannot be coincidence that two senior productions executives left Tesla

"X was hard, mkay?"

 

[brianman]

He stated that he believes it could be achieved but that it may not be advisable to do so.

To be clear, this comment was specifically about Fremont+GF1 alone -- not about the 1 million 2020 target.

 

[brianman]

huh?
the announcement did nothing
the stock dropped $10 per share today

It went down $9.76 during market.
It went up about +$11 during after hours, then receded to +$5.94 in after hours.
So net for the day of approx. -$3.8/sh.

 

[Zoomit]

And so it begins...

Tesla announces new Model 3 production plans, guidance of 500,000 cars/yr by 2018, instead of 2020

I need some help. The shareholder letter said, "500,000 total unit build plan (combined for Model S, Model X, and Model 3) to 2018", which sounds like a cumulative number of cars built, not a 500k/yr rate of production. Most of the stories online say 500k/yr, as above, but I read the the quote differently.

Here's an article that interprets it the same as me: Tesla wants to build 500,000 cars two years sooner than planned. "500,000-cars-made milestone" is a total not a rate.

These are VERY different kinds of numbers!

 

[Vitold]

I think pushing Model 3 out asap is a good move for many reasons:

• Builds convincing case for capital rise
• Allows Model 3 enter German market while EV credits are still in effect (which means that BMW and MB will be subsidizing Model3!)
  
• Also opens up other markets that exuded Model S and X from EV incentives (like Denmark)
• Will sell more cars in China
  
• Makes GM sad

 

[Lesifass]

I wonder if we will see part 2 of the reveal earlier due to this? Maybe early next year instead of later?

I doubt it. Unless the cool tech that will be in part 2 of the reveal is available in Model S/X early next year to prevent Osborne effect.

 

[brianman]

It's better to fail at something totally audacious and land on the shores of awesome... Than to shoot for good and land on mediocre.

Nice quote.

 

[brianman]

It's phenomenal... almost too good to be true o.o
Is it possible that Tesla had already secretly started making some M3's (non-protos)? or is almost ready to go into production already?

I'm confident they won't make any production vehicles until after Reveal 2. It's best to leave themselves some room to adjust if something in Reveal 2 generates a lot of negative social chatter.

 

[brianman]

I need some help. The shareholder letter said, "500,000 total unit build plan (combined for Model S, Model X, and Model 3) to 2018", which sounds like a cumulative number of cars built, not a 500k/yr rate of production.

As quoted, your interpretation is reasonable.

What Elon said on the call (more than once) was a yearly rate for 2018.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

I wonder if we will see part 2 of the reveal earlier due to this? Maybe early next year instead of later?

so we all got played.


in a good way.

if the car will be finalized in 3-6 weeks (where are you seeing transcripts of the call...?), then the prototypes we saw barely 5 weeks ago weren't Alphas....they were likely Bravo prototypes.

OR....they were Alphas, to throw us all off...while the Bravos were undercover in the indoor proving grounds.

Maybe now with this particular cat out of the bag, we'll start seeing Bravos in the wild.

 

[Breezy]

I need some help. The shareholder letter said, "500,000 total unit build plan (combined for Model S, Model X, and Model 3) to 2018", which sounds like a cumulative number of cars built, not a 500k/yr rate of production. Most of the stories online say 500k/yr, as above, but I read the the quote differently.

I think they really mean 500,000 units built (all three models combined) in 2018, as difficult as that is to believe. Note that they also talk about "increasing production five fold over the next two years."

 

[Garlan Garner]

Wait....why are they talking about 2018?

Are 2017 deliveries null and void now?