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Just cancelled my battery install

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I ordered my battery in April, no one told me it was ready to install until I logged in just now. Now they are telling me I won't be able to install until second week of January, causing me to miss the 26% tax credit. I guess they are so busy they don't even care at this point. I guess this battery will have to wait, in 2021 they will probably drop the price again to match the drop in tax credit
 
Yeah it goes down to 22% next year, so its a 4% difference. OP, you are going to have just a hard of time getting it next year when you order as you did this year... maybe even harder. I could understand if this was next year, when it potentially goes from 22% to 0 (I think) but I dont understand cancelling it for the reason you stated.

Like you said though, tesla cant make them fast enough, and you canceling just moved someone else up in line. If you think you might want one next year, you should keep this order. Just FYI, tesla did not lower the price of just powerwalls when the tax credit went from 30% (last year) to 26% (this year). They DID end up lowering the price of solar / PV installs, and giving bundled install credit for people who bought both, but there wasnt a reduction in price for just adding powerwalls to existing solar.

I wouldnt expect there to be one this year either, what with the demand. No need to lower prices on an object that has a several month backlog of orders that you cant keep in stock.
 
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I wouldn't cancel. Push for the permit to be done. I ordered July 2 and basically by August they were telling me 2021 with no guarantee for this year. Then 2 weeks ago I got a note from Tesla saying they were working on my Permit. Following week I received a letter from the El Dorado County Bldg Dept that they had issued a permit to my contractor (Tesla). I checked in with my advisor, still no new info, then last week, the boxes online started checking and I had a message on the Tesla account site telling me to call and schedule installation. That was last Tuesday Oct 27. I called and earliest install was the next day at 8 AM. Too quick as I needed a little cleanup. Next appointment was Friday Oct 30 at 8 AM. 2 Tesla installers showed up. Power was off all day and they finished at 5 pm and turned my system on. I already had solar panels so they said you don't have to wait for PTO. I had 2 Powerwalls installed, it took one day with my relatively small system that is 7.5KW but really peaks at about 5-6KW. So after 2.5 days, I am not drawing any power from the Grid. Solar starts shipping back to the grid as soon as batteries are charged back to 100%. Batteries power the house all night long. You really have nothing to lose waiting until end of year. Push for your permit as that is key to getting install.
 
I ordered my battery in April, no one told me it was ready to install until I logged in just now. Now they are telling me I won't be able to install until second week of January, causing me to miss the 26% tax credit. I guess they are so busy they don't even care at this point. I guess this battery will have to wait, in 2021 they will probably drop the price again to match the drop in tax credit

I don't see any reason to expect Tesla to drop their prices in 2021. They already have people in the queue trying to get the 22% tax credit next year. And they raised the price last year.

The only reason I can see to wait is to see what Tesla does with the PW V3 which should have the new 4680 cell. It might increase the capacity in the same housing, or let them shrink the housing at the current capacity.
 
I thought the battery didn't qualify for the tax credit unless it was installed with solar. I guess I may have dreamed that.

The batteries have to be installed with solar to qualify for the credit, but they don’t have to be installed at the same time. If you already have solar and then add batteries you can get the tax credit on the batteries. If you don’t have solar at all then batteries alone won’t qualify for the credit.
 
When I ordered it, the price was in the high 11s due to the high cost of permits here. A few months ago, they adjusted down to a flat 11K i believe. It would be cheaper if I cancel and reorder, but then I lose my place in line. Anyway it turns out my system was ready to be installed, no one ever told me and I only found out when I called them to ask about the status. The battery already didn't make a lot of financial sense, the loss of 4% and the extra cost made it even worse. I am better off keeping my DIY battery packs anyway as I rarely get power outages here. I guess it is not meant to be.
 
When I ordered it, the price was in the high 11s due to the high cost of permits here. A few months ago, they adjusted down to a flat 11K i believe. It would be cheaper if I cancel and reorder, but then I lose my place in line. Anyway it turns out my system was ready to be installed, no one ever told me and I only found out when I called them to ask about the status. The battery already didn't make a lot of financial sense, the loss of 4% and the extra cost made it even worse. I am better off keeping my DIY battery packs anyway as I rarely get power outages here. I guess it is not meant to be.

Seems like you made the right choice for you, and nothing wrong with that. As a note for anybody else, it seems if you call Tesla and ask them to adjust the price for the current pricing, they will do so without forcing a re-order or losing place in line. I don't know for certain that applies to PW-only orders, but a number of people (including myself) were able to do that with solar roof and solar panel orders when prices dropped while they were waiting for install.
 
When I ordered it, the price was in the high 11s due to the high cost of permits here. A few months ago, they adjusted down to a flat 11K i believe. It would be cheaper if I cancel and reorder, but then I lose my place in line. Anyway it turns out my system was ready to be installed, no one ever told me and I only found out when I called them to ask about the status. The battery already didn't make a lot of financial sense, the loss of 4% and the extra cost made it even worse. I am better off keeping my DIY battery packs anyway as I rarely get power outages here. I guess it is not meant to be.
Yes, lack of communications with them is a nightmare.
Looks like their tracking system is in need of an upgrade.
 
Tesla is already lower in price than the Independents that are selling Powerwalls. And it seems they are prioritizing their orders over those of the Independents. The Battery installers are a separate group from the Panel installers. However, when a full panel and battery install is scheduled, both of those groups show up on the job. The battery guys typically do a full battery install in a day. Roof installs could be a couple days, so both are scheduled separately but coordinated.
Tesla has tried to streamline their system to reduce cost. That is why they have no salesmen. They get a good percentage of their business from referrals and compensate owners who give referrals. This is also why when it comes to their systems, they are not custom. Basically 4 solar panel systems with 4 power configurations. This also makes it easy for them and the building departments as they see the same configurations over and over. That reduces cost as there is not a lot of back and forth between Tesla engineers and Building departments. Is the supply line strained? Absolutely, the guys on my job said they are even having trouble getting Square D breakers for the panels. I am kind of rambling here but thought I would pass on what I was able to dialog about during my install.
 
Tesla is already lower in price than the Independents that are selling Powerwalls. And it seems they are prioritizing their orders over those of the Independents. The Battery installers are a separate group from the Panel installers. However, when a full panel and battery install is scheduled, both of those groups show up on the job. The battery guys typically do a full battery install in a day. Roof installs could be a couple days, so both are scheduled separately but coordinated.
Tesla has tried to streamline their system to reduce cost. That is why they have no salesmen. They get a good percentage of their business from referrals and compensate owners who give referrals. This is also why when it comes to their systems, they are not custom. Basically 4 solar panel systems with 4 power configurations. This also makes it easy for them and the building departments as they see the same configurations over and over. That reduces cost as there is not a lot of back and forth between Tesla engineers and Building departments. Is the supply line strained? Absolutely, the guys on my job said they are even having trouble getting Square D breakers for the panels. I am kind of rambling here but thought I would pass on what I was able to dialog about during my install.

Yes, covid is impacting the supply chain more than more folks understand. My electrical guy was also have problems getting a square d breaker because of the lack of supply now.
 
I don't see any reason to expect Tesla to drop their prices in 2021. They already have people in the queue trying to get the 22% tax credit next year. And they raised the price last year.

The only reason I can see to wait is to see what Tesla does with the PW V3 which should have the new 4680 cell. It might increase the capacity in the same housing, or let them shrink the housing at the current capacity.
While 4680 cells might reduce cost some if they switch to them, a bigger price drop would likely come with a change to LiFePO along with 4680s - the combination of the two might let them keep the same overall capacity in the same package.

I also wouldn't be surprised if they introduce a new model that further simplifies manufacturing, installation and reduces cost. The Powerwall 2 was introduced back in October 2016 after introducing the Powerwall 1 in April 2015. It does seem like they are due for an upgrade.

Still - I also don't really anticipate any significant price changes until they are no longer production constrained and I don't think I would have cancelled over the slight reduction in tax credit. They are selling everything they can make.
 
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While 4680 cells might reduce cost some if they switch to them, a bigger price drop would likely come with a change to LiFePO along with 4680s - the combination of the two might let them keep the same overall capacity in the same package.

I also wouldn't be surprised if they introduce a new model that further simplifies manufacturing, installation and reduces cost. The Powerwall 2 was introduced back in October 2016 after introducing the Powerwall 1 in April 2015. It does seem like they are due for an upgrade.

Still - I also don't really anticipate any significant price changes until they are no longer production constrained and I don't think I would have cancelled over the slight reduction in tax credit. They are selling everything they can make.

Based on what I saw and heard on battery day, I am not assuming the new cells will be out for a while. Which now also has me assuming that now PW3 in the near future.