Just got an ballpark estimate for my model 3 timeline

[ecarfan]

does a June 2019 delivery date seem reasonable for a reservation made April 2017?

It is certainly possible. No way for anyone outside of Tesla to know how likely it is. And you have no way of knowing how many Model 3 reservation holders are in line in front of you. I would estimate somewhere between 350,000 and 500,000. But I am only guessing.

 

[vigge50]

Tesla will be pimping the Model S and X hard until at least the end of June, and downplaying the 3, they've got to have a good quarter in sales numbers to keep the stock price up!

So the only reason Tesla try to sell is to keep the stockprice up and not to get in as mush money as possible to continue to expand?

 

[whitex]

So the only reason Tesla try to sell is to keep the stockprice up and not to get in as mush money as possible to continue to expand?

Those are not entirely unrelated. Company which stops selling, loses revenue, stock goes down reducing ability to raise new money, rinse, lather, repeat...

 

[vigge50]

Those are not entirely unrelated. Company which stops selling, loses revenue, stock goes down reducing ability to raise new money, rinse, lather, repeat...

I'm not sure, I believe it would be easier for tesla to rais money if the stock was $250 then $370, tesla did for a short time yesterday passed BMW in market value wish is insane. If the stock price now was 250 I would buy stocks but right now I'm wondering if I should sell.

 

[whitex]

I'm not sure, I believe it would be easier for tesla to rais money if the stock was $250 then $370, tesla did for a short time yesterday passed BMW in market value wish is insane. If the stock price now was 250 I would buy stocks but right now I'm wondering if I should sell.

I think you are confusing some concepts here. If the stock price is backed up by revenue, there is no problem. If the absolute price was a problem, they could split too, but why. Think about it this way, if two people came to you to invest, one says "I have a billion dollars in revenue and it's growing every year, my stocks are at $400" and another "My revenue is one million, down from 2 million last year, but my stocks are only $1", which one do you rather invest in? Assume the same number of total stocks issued, same about of money to invest (so you get 400x more stocks of the tanking company). If you said the $1, go check out penny stocks, plenty of companies with no revenue or declining revenue with cheap stocks.

 

[vigge50]

I think you are confusing some concepts here. If the stock price is backed up by revenue, there is no problem. If the absolute price was a problem, they could split too, but why. Think about it this way, if two people came to you to invest, one says "I have a billion dollars in revenue and it's growing every year, my stocks are at $400" and another "My revenue is one million, down from 2 million last year, but my stocks are only $1", which one do you rather invest in? Assume the same number of total stocks issued, same about of money to invest (so you get 400x more stocks of the tanking company). If you said the $1, go check out penny stocks, plenty of companies with no revenue or declining revenue with cheap stocks.

Okey, I didn't explained what I mean so well. I don't cear if one stock cost $20 or $500, I mean the total value of the company. BMW produce 2,5 million cars last year and tesla about 80k, to me it's insane that they are worth the same. I do believe in Tesla that they will expand a lot in the future and I do think that they schould be worth much more then other companies that have a revenue about the same as Tesla but I don't think tesla will come up to the same production as BMW until about 2025 at earliest. Now I do now that Tesla is more then a car company and I do believe that Tesla energy probably can expand more then the car production but still, should tesla really be worth more then BMW?

 

[22522]

should tesla really be worth more then BMW?

Yes.

 

[jbcarioca]

Yes.

Indeed.

 

[Topher]

BMW produce 2,5 million cars last year and tesla about 80k

Stock price isn't about LAST YEAR'S sales. It is about NEXT YEAR'S, and the years after that.

If the stock price now was 250 I would buy stocks but right now I'm wondering if I should sell.

If you sell, someone else buys. Tesla doesn't care, nor does it materially affect the stock price (unless you own a lot).

that frustrating conversation with my fiancé that went "what happens when we have kids? Are they just going to sit on our laps? Time to start thinking about selling the Camaro..."

They do know that you get some warning about that whole 'kid' thing, right? If you need 9 months lead time to sell a Camaro, you probably shouldn't have bought one.

Thank you kindly.

 

[SeaDoc]

Has anyone heard that Tesla employees have received word they can now order the Tesla 3? Given that the first to reserve who are owners will be the next to order in July (perhaps), it does make sense that June should be timeframe for employees. Next time I wander in a showroom, I'll give that question a run through and share. Do the same and we may find out what exactly what one orders for the three...

 

[Weezer Fan]

I also had a call several months ago. I reserved in person March 31. Offered a test drive if Model S.

 

[mmd]

Okey, ... but still, should tesla really be worth more then BMW?

It makes complete sense under the greater fools theory Twitter and other social media are good places to find them. Every bubble in history had pundits coming up with rationales to support the over valuations
Stock market bubble - Wikipedia

But there is one big difference between BMW and Tesla. Tesla just lost ~$400M last qaurter. BMW and others are rolling in profits. It's still a good time for auto sector, but getting worse slowly.

 

[aronth5]

Has anyone heard that Tesla employees have received word they can now order the Tesla 3? Given that the first to reserve who are owners will be the next to order in July (perhaps), it does make sense that June should be timeframe for employees. Next time I wander in a showroom, I'll give that question a run through and share. Do the same and we may find out what exactly what one orders for the three...

I asked this question yesterday at the Dedham, Ma store/service center and the manager I spoke to who was from another Tesla facility indicated they haven't heard anything.
And that includes both when they will be able to order and anything about options.
His reasoning which makes perfect sense is they know once employees have this information it will be pubic knowledge and they are not ready for that to happen yet.

 

[Booga]

From what I've read on these forums over the last year, employees are sometimes less knowledgeable than the forum members here and experiences can vary quite a bit from store to store.

I'd just hang tight for next month and see how things shake out. The configurator should be open by then along with general timelines.

I couldn't agree more.

 

[daniel]

I thought I read here on TMC that Tesla stated officially that it expects that a Model 3 ordered today would be delivered in about a year. Still a good line to use to try to up-sell people to a Model S. 24 months sounds like an exaggeration. I bought my 2004 Prius in January of 2004, having ordered in November, right after the first reviews came out. By some time later that same year, my dealer had quit accepting reservations for the Prius because their waiting list had grown to a year. I think that a year's worth of reservations is a good reason to try to get people to buy a different model. The company needs to sell cars, and reservation-holders are people who clearly like the brand. So trying to up-sell them makes sense. Nobody has to accept the offer. There are advantages and disadvantages both ways.

 

[NoMoGas]

WITH ALL DUE RESPECT to Tesla sales staff, they literally know less tthen anything. There are countless stories on this forum of people being told things by staff that end up being wrong (and don't get me started on my personal experience with the now fired know-it-all manager at Tesla with the "inside information" who knew zip). Half the time you're lucky if they truly even know the car. (In my experience this has gotten better but can't tell you how many times I have shown a new feature to my serviice center they had no idea about). My advice; Do NOT rely on ANYTHING not given to you in writing by Tesla HQ. If they tell you they don't know, the one thing you can be sure of is your local sales rep sure as heck doesn't.

There is a concerted effort to redirect Model 3 buyers to CPO's, makes sense if you don't want to wait.

"It's not what you know. It's what you 'know' that just ain't so that'll get ya"

Hey guys just thought Id post about a phone call I just received. I got a call from my nearest Tesla showroom to discuss my model 3 reservation made back in April 2017. (I know that a reservation that late puts me near the last to be delivered as I was probably near the 400,000 mark). The lady I spoke with was great and knew her information, but she gave me an estimated timeline of 18-24 months before delivery of my model 3 - before she tried to get me to come in and try some CPO model S.

 

[MXWing]

It makes complete sense under the greater fools theory Twitter and other social media are good places to find them. Every bubble in history had pundits coming up with rationales to support the over valuations
Stock market bubble - Wikipedia

But there is one big difference between BMW and Tesla. Tesla just lost ~$400M last qaurter. BMW and others are rolling in profits. It's still a good time for auto sector, but getting worse slowly.

Despite a massive tank in share price, SNAPCHAT IS 1/3RD OF TESLA VALUATION.

Let that sink in.

Mobileeye = 15 Billion
400k Model 3 Reservations at 42k or so per car = 21 Billion

Anyway, I am sure you are convinced you know what you are talking about. I recommend you enter in a short position at the all time high.

You will make 360,000 for every 1000 TSLA shares you shot (minus borrowing cost) when this ponzi scheme goes to zero right?

 

[smac]

I agree with others. It's an up-selling tactic.

We are seeing lots of demand levers being pulled right now. Cheap finance rates, reintroduction of free supercharging, mailshots, events, and cold calls going out right now to pull in what demand they can in the run up to the end of the financial quarter.