Just killed all my excitement for Model 3... sigh

[ncsmith4]

First day non owner reservation. Delivery was supposed to be Jan-Mar 2018. Then “Mid 2018.” Now it’s “Early 2019.” I used to be anxiously thinking “oh it’s only X months...” but now my excitement for the car just got killed. I’ve got another YEAR to wait now.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not canceling. Just suuuuuper bummed.

 

[P85Dave]

They just can't sell vehicles at a loss. Until production ramps up their per unit cost is going to be quite high and it makes all the sense in the world to sell the higher profit margin models first.

You'd make the same decision if it was your own company.

The year will go by before you know it or you can try to stretch and get the long range version, which will be available in a few months.

 

[BlueRocket]

First day non owner reservation. Delivery was supposed to be Jan-Mar 2018. Then “Mid 2018.” Now it’s “Early 2019.” I used to be anxiously thinking “oh it’s only X months...” but now my excitement for the car just got killed. I’ve got another YEAR to wait now.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not canceling. Just suuuuuper bummed.

Look at the bright side ... You'll get AP3.0 or 4.0 by then

 

[ModelX]

I had a similar experience with the X. My Lexus had turned into a money pit, but I had been holding on waiting for my X. They announced another delay and my heart plummeted! I nearly lost the faith and bought a Mercedes. Luckily the EV Mercedes was lease only. So, I borrowed a car from my parents and held out until my X was available. I’m so glad I did!

 

[LCR1]

They just can't sell vehicles at a loss. Until production ramps up their per unit cost is going to be quite high and it makes all the sense in the world to sell the higher profit margin models first.

You'd make the same decision if it was your own company.

The year will go by before you know it or you can try to stretch and get the long range version, which will be available in a few months.

Untruth, if you sell the base at a loss now, the same ramp up and per unit cost goes down fact still applies and selling LRs in the future would have higher margins than they do now. Short term cash burn is higher, end time margins are the same.

Selling only the higher margins now forces people to wait or converts some SR people over to the LR/PUP stuff. This is the good business decision because by end time you sell 10 LRs vs 8. But the economies of scale don't effect this, that's the physiological portion.

 

[timk225]

They just can't sell vehicles at a loss. Until production ramps up their per unit cost is going to be quite high and it makes all the sense in the world to sell the higher profit margin models first.

You'd make the same decision if it was your own company.

The year will go by before you know it or you can try to stretch and get the long range version, which will be available in a few months.

That's Tesla's problem. No one told them to throw millions of dollars all over the place. Elon is worth around 20 billion, he can transfer a billion of his own money to Tesla to keep them going whenever he wants.

I understand the need for Tesla to make profitable cars now, but really, let's do the math. How much extra profit can you really make in the first year like this? Tesla should at least make some base 3's, even if they aren't making them exclusively yet. Compromise.

 

[ℬête Noire]

That's Tesla's problem. No one told them to throw millions of dollars all over the place. Elon is worth around 20 billion, he can transfer a billion of his own money to Tesla to keep them going whenever he wants.

That's not how that works.

For starters, about 1/2 of his net worth is already tied up in TSLA stock, and most of the other 1/2 is a majority ownership of SpaceX. So he doesn't have all that much cash, relatively speaking. He also is only a few % over %50 ownership of SpaceX, so would risk losing control of it if he tried to cash out that much of his ownership (if he could raise the money, because it'd have to be from a very limited number of buyers, otherwise he'd have to take it public due to corporate law).

But even more importantly it's a publicly traded company, not his private very closely held company that he's owns a majority of.

 

[kbecks13]

Untruth, if you sell the base at a loss now, the same ramp up and per unit cost goes down fact still applies and selling LRs in the future would have higher margins than they do now. Short term cash burn is higher, end time margins are the same.

This is not correct, end time margins are not the same. You are ignoring the time value of money when you say that selling LR's in the future would have higher margins so they should wait. It is common practice in most businesses/industries to recoup large capital investments as quickly as possible to increase the rate of return/net present value of the investment.

Also, look at the Tesla master plan to produce low volume, high price at first and then gradually shift to higher volume and lower price. We are doing exactly this process with the Model 3 right now (skipping AWD as that is added complexity) on a more micro scale.

 

[EV-lutioin]

With Tesla, the longer you wait, the better they get. When you finally get your M3, you will be smugly proud of all the improved features we early adopters did not get.

 

[mal_tsla]

With Tesla, the longer you wait, the better they get. When you finally get your M3, you will be smugly proud of all the improved features we early adopters did not get.

I don't know about that... we'll miss our ventilated front seats (TX summers are HOT!) and obeche wood/alcantara accents, and cool spaceship glossy seat backs, etc, when our lease is up. Hopefully they'll still sell a six seat mono post configuration (not looking too good so far on this one), or else we might be tempted to buy out our lease and keep our unicorn.

 

[deonb]

First day non owner reservation. Delivery was supposed to be Jan-Mar 2018. Then “Mid 2018.” Now it’s “Early 2019.” I used to be anxiously thinking “oh it’s only X months...” but now my excitement for the car just got killed. I’ve got another YEAR to wait now.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not canceling. Just suuuuuper bummed.

Huh? How does that work? I'm a first day non-owner reservation holder on my second Model 3, and my delivery estimate is Mar to May 2018. Even if I opt for 'standard' or AWD it's just "Late 2018".

What exactly do you mean by "first day"?

 

[PeterK]

That's Tesla's problem. No one told them to throw millions of dollars all over the place. Elon is worth around 20 billion, he can transfer a billion of his own money to Tesla to keep them going whenever he wants.

I understand the need for Tesla to make profitable cars now, but really, let's do the math. How much extra profit can you really make in the first year like this? Tesla should at least make some base 3's, even if they aren't making them exclusively yet. Compromise.

It may not only be about profit. Battery pack
production is the current bottleneck. Introducing a second pack size would add complexity they don’t need right now.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

When everyone was standing in line to to purchase their day 1 reservation, what was the expected delivery date?

 

[Lozza12]

First day non owner reservation. Delivery was supposed to be Jan-Mar 2018. Then “Mid 2018.” Now it’s “Early 2019.” I used to be anxiously thinking “oh it’s only X months...” but now my excitement for the car just got killed. I’ve got another YEAR to wait now.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not canceling. Just suuuuuper bummed.

There is no doubt that 2018 will prove to be a difficult year for Tesla and hopeful Model 3 owners.

I find that some perspective can help at times like this, especially for the California and other US readers here. In New Zealand where I'm from we have no EV incentives, no $7500 rebate, we are RHD, there is no supercharger network and I reserved in April 2016.

I will now be lucky to see my Model 3 in 2020 after a 4 year wait, and after taxes and FX is added I will probably pay $70,000 for this car, not USD35,000. For perspective my 2015 24kWh used Leaf cost $23k.

Just sayin

 

[deonb]

When everyone was standing in line to to purchase their day 1 reservation, what was the expected delivery date?

At the time I was in line it was mid 2018. The expectation of mid to late 2017 came later based on guidance from Elon and Tesla.

But when I stood in line I fully expected 2018 - in fact I bought another car for the mean time based on that.

 

[ncsmith4]

Huh? How does that work? I'm a first day non-owner reservation holder on my second Model 3, and my delivery estimate is Mar to May 2018. Even if I opt for 'standard' or AWD it's just "Late 2018".

What exactly do you mean by "first day"?

I mean that I placed my order on 3/31. In the evening, but 3/31. And for standard battery I am at “Early 2019.” FML.

 

[RVD98072]

I don't know about that... we'll miss our ventilated front seats (TX summers are HOT!) and obeche wood/alcantara accents, and cool spaceship glossy seat backs, etc, when our lease is up. Hopefully they'll still sell a six seat mono post configuration (not looking too good so far on this one), or else we might be tempted to buy out our lease and keep our unicorn.

You forgot to mention the adaptive rear spoiler on the model x was also discontinued.

 

[Garlan Garner]

With Tesla, the longer you wait, the better they get. When you finally get your M3, you will be smugly proud of all the improved features we early adopters did not get.

So how long would you suggest waiting.....to get perfection?

 

[jchau]

"We always try to maximize customer happiness even if that means a revenue shortfall in a quarter. Loyalty begets loyalty." Elon

 

[jayhawk3]

When everyone was standing in line to to purchase their day 1 reservation, what was the expected delivery date?

2017 as per Elon.

Tesla’s $35,000 Model 3 will start production in 2017

Here is another interesting quote: "Tesla will give priority to current owners of Model S, Model X, and Roadster vehicles, and it will also allot Model 3 cars by region, with California buyers getting their cars first." Notice it doesn't say preference will be given to any Joe who buys a Tesla at any point. More bait and switch.

Tesla Model 3 orders start as buyers wait in line outside stores