Just ordered an S100d for late June delivery but thinking of cancelling and ordering Mid June

As far as I know, current battery contract runs through the end of 2018. I could be wrong though.

Tesla’s Q4 shareholder letter made it seem like a battery upgrade for the S isn’t coming this year. They’re comfortable with their current supply. Given recent comments about capex and increasing focus on Tesla’s profitability, I don’t see them investing in new batteries for the S this year.

 

I would not count on any significant changes coming for the S or X in the near future. But if there's something specific you're waiting on, then wait.

 

You should definitely cancel and reorder with my referral code

 

Tesla is too buysy building second line of M3 production, solar panels, model Y, and colonizing mars they don't have time to do imminent refresh on S and X. Remember, Tesla is just a one man show. My bet is Q1/2019.

 

There are many threads on this.. change with Tesla is constant. No matter when you get one, something will change within ~6 months. Cognitive dissonance is normal. Just accept it, step in and enjoy the ride.

 

What is your motivation for getting a Model S? What do you think of a Model 3?

 

There will always be something new, if you keep waiting you'll never get the car you want. When I ordered my Model S 60, a month later Tesla discontinues the 60 and makes the 75 cheaper than what I paid. Was I sore about it? sure. but I still love my car.

Just take delivery. Tesla is far too invested in ramping up model 3 production. no way they're going to change the model S/X line right now and waste all that money on the only profitable production line they have going right now.

 

There's always a risk that something new is just around the corner.

Shortly after we received our S 100D last year, Tesla started bundling the high amperage charger at no cost with new 100's. Even after that was done, I checked with our service center - and it will still cost us almost $2K to upgrade our 100D from 48A to 72A (and that's only a software update! We already have the 72A hardware on board!).

We have some concern about this happening again with the X 100D we have on order, which is supposed to be delivered in June.

Musk indicates they could start rolling out V3 superchargers later this summer - and it's possible hardware changes will be needed to allow cars to take advantage of the faster charging. And if that happens, our X 100D could be one of the last cars built without the faster charging support.

But there's always a risk that's going to happen. If we waited until the fall, something new might be coming out later this year - and we could play that game forever, always waiting for the best car before we placed our order.

As an owner of one of the early Model S cars (vin 3xxx from January 2013), we went through this every few months with our S P85, as Tesla continued adding new features to the car (power folding mirrors, parking sensors, TACC, AP, ...) and we'd go through a brief period of feature envy - before getting back to enjoying our S P85 for the reasons why we bought it in the first place - it's still a fantastic car. Plus, it just got a new navigation system!

With Tesla's continuous improvement model, there will never be a "best time" to buy a Tesla - because Tesla could implement changes at any time. And even though Tesla is focused on the Model 3, that doesn't mean we won't continue to see changes to the S & X models...

If you like the features of the current S and X cars - buy it. If it's missing a feature you want - then wait and see if Tesla adds it - or buy something else.

 

They just did a slight interior trim colour refresh, added vanity lights, new MCU. There will always be subtle changes every few months to quarter. Accept it and enjoy!

Having said that...if a 110D comes out by Sept...hmmm....they may need to differentiate more from the LRM3D specs a bit to maintain value for the 100D.

 

There won't be. Elon has said so many times no changes to Model X/S battery pack. the 100D is already pushing the limit of how many cells they can physically fit in the battery. There just simply isn't room for anything more.

 

But but but... 2170 cells are the magical cure-all to all that ails the Model S!

 

I meant in terms of using the new packs and achieving better density, cells and range.

 

Tesla needs to do more to differentiate the S from the 3 and one of the ways Tesla has historically differentiated more expensive vehicles is with a larger capacity pack. The question isn't if they will do this with the S, its just when and how much bigger they go. The pack design is basically 6 years old at this point, which would imply a redesigned pack (and likely whole car to go with it) won't be that far out. But that could (and in my opinion) will be more like 2-3 years than anytime in 2018. I'd guess they have a small team working on preliminary design now, and will move the majority of the design team from the Y to the S sometime in early 2019.

This is of course just rampant speculation.

 

Feel free to disagree with my post without saying why, never mind everything I said was factual.

Tesla Model S, X has no plans to use 2170 battery cells, says Musk

 

Taking what Elon says as fact has proven time and time again to be a mistake. Regardless, before being snippy, read what he actually said, that they have no plans, not that they never will.

Obviously they will be switching to the 2170s at some point. The question is when. Just like with the pack, do you really think they are going to keep that pack design forever? Look at how vastly different the 3's pack is, and at this point I'm sure they've already come up with a ton of ways to improve that design as well. I'd say they'd be redesigning it even sooner than 2-3 years, but the recent MCU update implies that they aren't going to be making any major changes to the S/X right now. Logically, this makes sense as they need the Y to market far more than they need to worry about the S being a dated design.

 

Obviously they will eventually redesign the pack, an the Model S. For the Model S to have a bigger battery, they will have to redesign the car as it will require a new pack. The largest question is when? All signs point to it not being this year, and probably not next year either for several reasons.

a] Tesla is bleeding cash trying to streamline the Model 3 production line. They do not have the resources to interrupt their profitable Model S/X production line for a complete overhaul. Once Tesla posts acceptable Model 3 production numbers and potentially profits can they begin to worry about a possible model S refresh.


However...

b] They are working on outputting the Semi and Model Y. This will also take considerable resources and thus its fair to conclude a refresh of the Model S is last on the list of priorities right now. What is more likely is incremental cosmetic changes but no major changes to the battery or drive unit. MCU and AP hardware updates show they will upgrade specific components of the car, but not redesign the entire thing, and definitely not on the scale of needing a new battery pack.

c] on that same note, the Gigafactory isn't at full capacity yet. Tesla needs all the 2170 cells it can get for the higher demand Model 3, then Model Y and Semi...and the next gen roadster.

Like the old adage goes, don't fix what isn't broken. a 100D has 335 rated miles range, thats a lot more than 99% of people drive in one day.

 

Your thinking is sound, however it is still just a guess.

Waiting so that you do not miss the next change is frought with uncertainty

The current 100D is a pretty spectacular car, that anyone would be proud to own and great to drive.

Tesla is fine tuning it's delivery locations to address areas where the tax credit benefits are best. You might delay your order just at the time that Tesla is configuring it's delivery schedule so you will need to wait a long time to get it.

As Elon said in another matter...place your bet.