Just sold my gas guzzling car | Ready to move towards a better future!

[Max*]

You are not including the $7500 federal credit in your new computation.

I'm using your numbers, so yes, it is included.

In the 3rd quote where it says "minus rebate"

I realize its not common core, but lets do the math again.

I have a graduate degree in engineering, I'll try to keep up with your algebra.

CPO 85S presently on sale, Black on cream, 50,000 miles - $50700

tax @ 9.50% LA County: $4816.50

Registration fees: ~ $700

Total: $56,216.50

45% of value in 4 years: $22,815.

Cost of vehicle for 4 years: $33401.50

Ok, so the cost of a CPO vehicle over 4 years, using your numbers, is $33k. I'm with you here.

2017 Tesla Model S

Vehicle: $74500
Paint: $ 1000
Cream Interior: $ 3300
EAP: $ 5000

Total: $83,800
Tax $ 7,961
Title $ 900

Total: $92661

Min tax credit: -$7,500

Net price: $$85161

60% of net vehicle price in 4 years: $45,780.00

So the cost of the new vehicle, after 4 years, is $85,161-$45,780 = $39,381.

So the new vehicle costs MORE to own than the used vehicle.

OR: The net sales price for a NEW car is $20,944 more for new.

I don't get this number at all.
The net sales price for a new car is $85,161 - $56,216.50 = $28,944.50

What happened to $8k????

Now - lets go to the END of ownership. Selling the cars:

2017 Selling Price: $45750

2013 selling price: $22815

OK, yes, this is valid.

Net difference: $22,935 OR - after 4 years it costs you $1991 dollars LESS to buy a new car.

You made up a number upthread, and are subtracting it here from the delta of the selling price, and telling me it costs me $1,991 less for a new car? Seriously? And I'm the one who doesn't understand common core math?

Used car (your numbers) $56,216.50 purchase price - $22,815 sell price = $33,401.50 cost of ownership
New car (your numbers) $85161 purchase price - $45,780.00 sell price = $39,381.00 cost of ownership

New car costs $5,979.50 more to own than the used car, USING YOUR NUMBERS (which have gotten better, but not quite where I'd put the math)

 

[incrediwoah]

Not seeing any CPO 85S vehicles for anywhere south of $50k - the least expensive S with a 85kwh battery is $50,700. . . as of a few min ago.

You are not including the $7500 federal credit in your new computation.

I realize its not common core, but lets do the math again. I'm using cash purchase -

CPO 85S presently on sale, Black on cream, 50,000 miles - $50700

tax @ 9.50% LA County: $4816.50

Registration fees: ~ $700

Total: $56,216.50

45% of value in 4 years: $22,815.

Cost of vehicle for 4 years: $33401.50

2017 Tesla Model S

Vehicle: $74500
Paint: $ 1000
Cream Interior: $ 3300
EAP: $ 5000

Total: $83,800
Tax $ 7,961
Title $ 900

Total: $92661

Min tax credit: -$7,500

Net price: $$85161

60% of net vehicle price in 4 years: $45,780.00

OR: The net sales price for a NEW car is $20,944 more for new.

Total cost of vehicle for 4 years: $39401. - $6000 more for new.

Now - lets go to the END of ownership. Selling the cars:

2017 Selling Price: $45750

2013 selling price: $22815

Net difference: $22,935 OR - after 4 years you get $1991 dollars more for the used new car.

So now you have a total net cost of new at $4009 = with zero repair risk. Its LESS than the cost of buying an extended warranty for the 2013/14 CPO at $4500.

So do you want a NEW car, with new hardware upgrades and full warranty, and autopilot, or do you want a 4 year old vehicle with 50k miles and no ability to upgrade to EAP?

Hey, thats value judgment - but its a damn simple value judgement in my mind. . . .

I like your point here. My question would be accounting for mileage as this only accounts for years of ownership and I am not sure how many miles you assumed for this market calculation of 60%. So confusing!

It would be interesting to compile historical data seeing the percentage after 4 years within a defined perimeter of mileage.

 

[comanchepilot]

I thought I'd do a little more research into this & found it's not quite as black & white as you portrayed. I'm sure that was not intentional.

Yes, SB 454 will require high income folks to choose one incentive or the other. But only high income, not everyone. Since incentives for higher income buyers were already in question, it's not a surprise. (I'm glad it's tied to income and not price of car, but that's probably another discussion.)

It also prescribes a time limit on HOV lane decals (they’re good until January of the fourth year after the decals are first applied for).

It makes sense to sunset the decals, because HOV lanes will become overly congested - and Caltrans would likely end up excluding all single occupant vehicles.

I wish it wasn't either/or incentives - if the Governor's goal of 1.5 million ZEVs by 2025 is to be achieved, both incentives would be good. And as a friend has pointed out to me, we cannot discount the role that high-income earners play in making ZEVs available to the secondary market.

What did I say, exactly Bonnie? C'mon - you need to read all of my words to understand the thought.

Here we go:

"No one living in Malibu qualifies for the $2500 Calif rebate. If they do, they can't finance the car.

Next, you have to choose between the rebate and carpool lane access. If you live in Malibu you prob don't work in Malibu - thus - that carpool lane access is more meaningful than $2500. "

We have two choices now - and its AB544 - not 454 to be technical - since you like to be technical.

1. A person have the cash to buy a Tesla new [or used, not much net difference in cost] they have $62 or $85 lying around they can spend, thus, they likely have a significant income. [obnoxious game show noise] Income too high. They're not getting a rebate.

2. A person does not have a high income and can purchase the vehicle. And they make less than $150k a year. That's $12.500 a month. $9000 after taxes in California. Rent or mortgage payment is close to $3000 in malibu. for a condo. $850 for a Tesla. $250 at least for insurance. Now you're at half your monthly take home, and you have no lights, no cell phone, no internet, and no social life. Ski trips to Mammoth cost money. If its every weekend, its at least $2000 a month for lodging and food. So now here are at $6000 a month - and still not food, entertainment, or utilities. See what I mean? No one in Malibu is going to get a rebate.

Verstehen?

PS: of what possible relevance to a financial equation or a 2021 sale date is the expiration of the sticker? Buy a new car, you get a white sticker until 12/31/2021 - buy a used one and its only valid through 12/31/18. Seems like yet another argument to buy new. . . . fits in the 'intangilbles' category. Especially for someone driving 25000 miles a year.

 

[Max*]

I like your point here. My question would be accounting for mileage as this only accounts for years of ownership and I am not sure how many miles you assumed for this market calculation of 60%. So confusing!

It would be interesting to compile historical data seeing the percentage after 4 years within a defined perimeter of mileage.

He's using 60% for the first 4 years of ownership and 45% for the next 4 years of ownership. There are calculators online to show you how much a typical car depreciates, so you can easily plug in your numbers. It's harder with a Tesla due to the $7,500 federal credit. But you can just assume the car costs $7,500 less.

Don't forget in @comanchepilot math, he didn't account for the fact that the 85 has a pano roof ($2,500 now), Carbon Fiber decor ($750? I think), UFHS/Sub-zero/Tech package (~$5k now).

There is almost no way a new car will depreciate slower than a used car. It's pretty basic knowledge.

 

[comanchepilot]

I am sure your aware of that the CPO vehicles come with a full 4 year warranty and the balance of the battery/Drive unit warranty. I think that you will find the price diff between private and CPO to be minimal.especially when the potential value of,the warranty and prep the vehicle has gone through is taken into account.

Best of luck, your gonna have a blast!

I thought I saw that the CPO's now have a 2 year from date of sale Certified Pre-Owned Warranty, to 100,000 miles max, plus the balance of the 100k / 8 year warranty. . .

Did I misread that?

 

[Max*]

Minus $1991 because you get more money for the new car vs. the old car - that is an offset to teh cost of ownership.

Total NET cost of owning new vs used is $3988.50/

Congratulations on your engineering degree. Doesn't help here does it?

You're double dipping by taking out the $1,991 after you subtract the new from the used (which includes the $1,991), check your work.

My math includes the $1,991.


There are 4 numbers, and there is no valid way to get $3,988.50 using the following 4 numbers (which you provided) and common core algebra.
New car: 85161
Sold new car: 45750
Used car: 56,216.50
Sold used car: 22815

The math comes out to $6009.50, using your numbers, which I still don't agree with, but if we can't get the math down, no point about arguing about the numbers.

You also never added finance costs, which is another $1-$2k on your numbers.

 

[incrediwoah]

If the OP REALLY does Malibu to Mammoth every weekend every ski season - he's NUTS to not get a carpool lane sticker . . . for the WHOLE 4 years. And you CAN'T do that with a CPO Tesla. . . .

Weather permitting its possible! Carpool lane sticker will be valuable to me for work commute and travel.

 

[idleuser]

New is always better than old with financing being only .99%apr and if you buy a new Model S with 7500 federal tax and 2500 ca rebate that brings the cost down even further.

see What does the rebate waitlist mean to me? (law just updated 10/10)

Let's not forget 45% is depreciation is only a rough guesstimate without a few hundred thousand Model 3 rolling around and with newer cars and technology, I'm willing to bet the used CPO Model S that you buy now will drop below 20k in 2 years.

 

[hill]

Good evening everyone,

My name is Chris and last Friday I sold my 18mpg gas guzzling 2016 Jeep Grand Cherokee. I am ready to make the move into a Tesla now! A little background info: I am located in the Santa Monica area and am not looking at purchasing new due to the amount of miles I drive per year (25,000)! In fact, my goal is to spend less than $45k on a used Tesla Model S. I would love to hear from you fellow Tesla owners your thoughts on purchasing used high mileage Tesla's ..............snip.................
Sincerely, Chris

Lowest (non 'salvaged' title) mileage I've seen for a 2013 on Ebay for a 85kWh MS during the past couple weeks was ONLY (in the) 26,000 miles !! (range). And the final price was in the high $30K !!
Just saying - don't give up necessarily, on thinking you HAVE to go high mileage.
I'd have loved to have grabbed that sucker for my self. That said .... who knows whether or not the buyer hadn't had a reserve underneath that would have driven up the price an additional $10K or more. We'll never know

if you do the math, you will likely discover that buying a new Tesla with the current AWD standard, and tons of other former options now being standard, is a much better deal than a 50k mile CPO. .......... . . .

hardly ~
most would haved agreed, until aft er the announcement of throttled supercharging speeds, for newer models. Many here have already written posts how they wished they hadn't upgraded to newer models due to that.
but like you mentioned - YMMV
.

 

[Max*]

New is always better than old with financing being only .99%apr

That's a valid point, you'll come ahead on interest rate costs on a new $85k car at 0.99% vs. a used $55k car at 3% for 60 months. Less of a delta at lower APRs and lower terms.

 

[comanchepilot]

That's a valid point, you'll come ahead on interest rate costs on a new $85k car at 0.99% vs. a used $55k car at 3% for 60 months. Less of a delta at lower APRs and lower terms.

Tesla sales told me that with a 15% down payment on CPO [or new] and 4 years for CPO, rates are basically the same. 1.75% for used. You can easily find under 3% with decent credit - heck even Bank of America is under 3!

 

[incrediwoah]

Lowest (non 'salvaged' title) mileage I've seen for a 2013 on Ebay for a 85kWh MS during the past couple weeks was ONLY (in the) 26,000 miles !! (range). And the final price was in the high $30K !!
Just saying - don't give up necessarily, on thinking you HAVE to go high mileage.
I'd have loved to have grabbed that sucker for my self. That said .... who knows whether or not the buyer hadn't had a reserve underneath that would have driven up the price an additional $10K or more. We'll never know

.

Unbelievable! Gotta go find that guy!

 

[MSDadMich]

if you do the math, you will likely discover that buying a new Tesla with the current AWD standard, and tons of other former options now being standard, is a much better deal than a 50k mile CPO. YMMV.

A $55k vehicle [seems low end, but I doing that intentionally] prices out [in Malibu] as follows:

1. Vehicle: $55000 -- this most likely a 60kw battery - so consider your range.
2. Tax: $5,225/
3. Registration: $750

Total: $$60,925

New 75D: $75000
EAP / Interior: $8300
Tax: $7900
Title: $900
Minus rebate: [$7500]
Total: $84,600

A NEW Tesla only costs you just under $24000. And every dime the car costs more than $55k adds 11 cents to the price and reduces the cost differential by 11 cents.

Makes ZERO sense to buy a used vehicle when you get the FULL 4 year warranty, plus the FULL 8 year battery warranty. . . .

Its $328 a month for 72 months if you finance. And you are guaranteed not to spend a dime for repairs for 4 years. . . . For $300 a month - plus at the end of 4 or 6 years, you have an asset worth far more than the $24k you spent up front in terms of used value.

An AWD 75D gonna be worth a heckuva lot more in 2021 than a 60kwh Model out of battery warranty . . .

Yes, true , true... Cfinck, if this is just not in your budget however, don't let this info stop you from making the transition to electric. Make the purchase you can afford and will be happy with in the end! If you can afford the new 75D then go for it, the comments above by comanchepilot are sound.

 

[incrediwoah]

Yes, true , true... Cfinck, if this is just not in your budget however, don't let this info stop you from making the transition to electric. Make the purchase you can afford and will be happy with in the end! If you can afford the new 75D then go for it, the comments above by comanchepilot are sound.

Thank you! At this point, I will be looking for used under 45k most likely high mileage and the few I initially listed are setup for test drives! Any advice on things I need to be looking for on these drives? Any service calls I can make, etc?

 

[BinaryField]

I said CASH purchase. Why are you moving the goal posts? My hypothetical my facts. Right? You are engineer - you understnad that you cannot change the conditions.

Next - I INCLUDE the $1991 in all pre sale computations - that money arrives at the END - there is no $1991 taken out anywhere -except at the end. One is $1991 better off in 4 years at resale by buying New. The total net cost of new, minus insurance differences on price [which you miss ] and the increased cost of registration and personal property tax for a more expensive car [which you also missed] but - you have a NEWER CAR.

You want to agree on $5000 more to buy new to offset 4 years of those costs? I'll go there.

Want to take it out to 6 years to pay off the loan note? Or 4 years for used? There are million variables you can toss in if all you want to do is poke holes at something.

If the OP REALLY does Malibu to Mammoth every weekend every ski season - he's NUTS to not get a carpool lane sticker . . . for the WHOLE 4 years. And you CAN'T do that with a CPO Tesla. . . .

Since people are throwing down their credentials, let me start out by saying that I have a Ph.D. in mathematics. I see what you wrote in your original post as a mathematician would: it is a thought process about how to value a new versus used car purchase. If somebody has an issue with your numbers, all they have to do is tailor their own for their circumstances and substitute them in. The concept remains the same. I can't understand why people are up in arms, waving their degrees in your face and getting personal. (And, somewhat tongue-in-cheek, I find people in other technical areas - besides some physicists and computer scientists - to be extremely bad at math. However, I don't put them down for it or hold it against them, and I don't discount their opinions on that basis.)

For what it's worth, I marked your original post as informative, and I stand by that. It was helpful to me, since luxury car buying and valuation is relatively new territory to me.

 

[alloverx]

There is always a bigger fish!

 

[BinaryField]

Thank you! At this point, I will be looking for used under 45k most likely high mileage and the few I initially listed are setup for test drives! Any advice on things I need to be looking for on these drives? Any service calls I can make, etc?

It isn't really specific to your test drives, but have you considered trying to get a hold of a car for a couple of days, possibly through Turo or a major car rental company? For me, changing from gasoline to electric feels like a fundamental culture shift. I want to make sure that it will fit into my daily routine and that I actually like the car. I have a Turo rental lined up about a week from now, myself.