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October 19 will mark 12 months since Tesla announced that all new cars were shipping with AP2 hardware. I've said it before - but I'll say it again now that we are 4 weeks from being "1 year" post-AP2 announcement:
It was a full 12 months from October 2014's surprise AP1 announcement to the very first release of AP1's software. Tesla had the benefit then of using a pre-trained neural net from Mobileye for object recognition.
We are only 11 months post-AP2 hardware - in which Tesla has gone from totally zero to the current state of AP2. The cars are now uploading many GB each to Tesla - we are seeing incremental releases and updates roughly every 3-4 weeks.
Despite the missteps and overpromises I still have faith that Tesla's massive data gathering advantage over all other competition may result in it getting to a commercial FSD solution before anyone else does. They are orders of magnitude ahead of the competition in terms of encountering corner cases and building a huge training data set.
Again - I think the progress has been stunningly fast. Glass half full. Maybe I'm just crazy. 5 seconds into this song you can hear @Bladerskb shouting at me from stage left.